Sparta Praha vs Lillestrom Prediction and Betting Tips | UEFA Europa League Gameweek 2
UEFA Europa League · Thursday 15 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-10
Sparta Praha welcome Lillestrom to Epet Arena in Praha in UEFA Europa League Gameweek 2 action on Thursday 15 October 2026.
Sparta Praha have played 2 matches in UEFA Europa League this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 2.0 goals a game and winning 50% of them. At home they average 2.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 1 match, with a 100% win rate. Lillestrom have played 3 matches in UEFA Europa League this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 33% of them. Away from home they average 0.0 goals scored and 0.0 conceded over 1 match, with a 0% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, Sparta Praha are clear favourites at 67%, with the draw at 19% and Lillestrom at 13%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (12.5% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Sparta Praha -1.25 at 1.81, Lillestrom at 2.07. The main goals line is 3: over 1.89, under 1.97, which gives over 51%.
Sparta Praha: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 0.97 a match created (goals minus xG: +0.1).
- Shots: 7.5 a match, 2.0 on target.
- Possession: 48.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.5 a match.
- Discipline: 1.5 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.59.
Lillestrom: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 0.90 a match created (goals minus xG: +0.3).
- Shots: 13.7 a match, 4.3 on target.
- Possession: 57.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 33% of matches (100% away).
- Both teams scored in 67% of their matches.
- Corners: 8.0 a match.
- Discipline: 1.7 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.66.
Sparta Praha vs Lillestrom: season averages side by side
| Sparta Praha | Per match | Lillestrom |
|---|---|---|
| 0.97 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.90 |
| 1.00 | Goals | 1.00 |
| 7.5 | Shots | 13.7 |
| 2.0 | Shots on target | 4.3 |
| 1.5 | Big chances missed | 0.7 |
| 10.5 | Tackles | 4.0 |
| 12.5 | Fouls | 16.3 |
| 1.5 | Yellow cards | 1.7 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 2 and 3 measured matches.
Sparta Praha vs Lillestrom prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 2.4 goals - 1.20 for Sparta Praha and 1.24 for Lillestrom - with over 2.5 goals at 44% and both teams scoring at 51%. Sparta Praha have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Sparta Praha 1-0 Lillestrom
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Sparta Praha vs Lillestrom betting tips
- Tip 1: Sparta Praha to win 67% on the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out
- Tip 2: Under 2.5 goals 56% by the model, 2.44 goals expected
- Tip 3: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 4.2 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Over 9.5 corners 11.5 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
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Sparta Praha vs Lillestrom: questions and answers
When is Sparta Praha vs Lillestrom?
Sparta Praha vs Lillestrom is on Thursday 15 October 2026, in UEFA Europa League Gameweek 2.
Where is Sparta Praha vs Lillestrom played?
At Epet Arena, Praha, Sparta Praha's home ground.
Who will win Sparta Praha vs Lillestrom?
Sparta Praha are the favourites: Sparta Praha 67%, draw 19%, Lillestrom 13%. Our prediction is Sparta Praha 1-0 Lillestrom.
How many goals will there be in Sparta Praha vs Lillestrom?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.4 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 44%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.