Lech Poznan vs Bayer Leverkusen Prediction and Betting Tips | UEFA Europa League Gameweek 2
UEFA Europa League · Thursday 15 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-10
Lech Poznan welcome Bayer Leverkusen to Enea stadion in Poznań in UEFA Europa League Gameweek 2 action on Thursday 15 October 2026.
Lech Poznan have played 5 matches in UEFA Europa League this season, scoring 3.0 and conceding 1.2 goals a game and winning 60% of them. At home they average 4.0 goals scored and 0.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 67% win rate. Bayer Leverkusen have played 5 matches in UEFA Europa League this season, scoring 2.8 and conceding 1.6 goals a game and winning 60% of them. Away from home they average 2.7 goals scored and 2.7 conceded over 3 matches, with a 33% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, Bayer Leverkusen are narrow favourites at 56%, with the draw at 23% and Lech Poznan at 21%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (12.3% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Lech Poznan +0.75 at 2.05, Bayer Leverkusen at 1.83. The main goals line is 3.25: over 2.04, under 1.83, which gives over 47%.
Lech Poznan: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 0.99 a match created (goals minus xG: +10.0).
- Shots: 18.0 a match, 7.4 on target.
- Possession: 56.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 60% of matches (67% at home).
- Both teams scored in 20% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.4 a match.
- Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.78.
Bayer Leverkusen: form and key numbers
In style Bayer Leverkusen keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 2.40 a match created, 0.89 conceded (goals minus xG: +2.0).
- Shots: 21.2 a match, 6.4 on target.
- Possession: 59.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 40% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 60% of their matches.
- Corners: 8.0 a match.
- Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.94.
Lech Poznan vs Bayer Leverkusen: season averages side by side
| Lech Poznan | Per match | Bayer Leverkusen |
|---|---|---|
| 0.99 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.40 |
| – | xG conceded | 0.89 |
| 3.00 | Goals | 2.80 |
| 18.0 | Shots | 21.2 |
| 7.4 | Shots on target | 6.4 |
| 1.2 | Big chances missed | 2.6 |
| – | Pressure share % | 75.0 |
| 5.6 | Tackles | 14.0 |
| 9.4 | Fouls | 12.4 |
| 1.6 | Yellow cards | 1.6 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 5 and 5 measured matches.
Players to watch
Bayer Leverkusen
- Aleix García CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 76 · Ball circulator, Chance creator (top 1% of his position)
- Ibrahim Maza AMF · Shadow striker · Moneyball Score 66 · High shot volume, Gets into scoring positions (top 6% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Patrik Schick
Patrik Schick, 30 · Bayer 04 Leverkusen · CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 67
Patrik Schick, 30, plays as a centre-forward for Bayer 04 Leverkusen in the Bundesliga. Strongest for his role in goals and shots. Weakest in big chances missed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 67
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Goals | 1.31 / 90 | 95% |
| Shots | 4.71 / 90 | 94% |
| Expected goals | 0.84 / 90 | 90% |
| Key passes | 1.57 / 90 | 70% |
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.18 xG/shot | 65% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★★ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★★★ Complete forward Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Clinical finisher, High shot volume, Gets into scoring positions.
- What Patrik Schick is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Patrik Schick's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Lech Poznan vs Bayer Leverkusen prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 3.5 goals - 1.80 for Lech Poznan and 1.74 for Bayer Leverkusen - with over 2.5 goals at 69% and both teams scoring at 69%. Bayer Leverkusen have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Lech Poznan 1-2 Bayer Leverkusen
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Lech Poznan vs Bayer Leverkusen betting tips
- Tip 1: Bayer Leverkusen to win 56% on the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 69% by the model, 3.54 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 69% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 4.2 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 13.4 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
Open Lech Poznan vs Bayer Leverkusen in the Match Centre Follow it live
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Lech Poznan vs Bayer Leverkusen: questions and answers
When is Lech Poznan vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Lech Poznan vs Bayer Leverkusen is on Thursday 15 October 2026, in UEFA Europa League Gameweek 2.
Where is Lech Poznan vs Bayer Leverkusen played?
At Enea stadion, Poznań, Lech Poznan's home ground.
Who will win Lech Poznan vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Bayer Leverkusen are the favourites: Lech Poznan 21%, draw 23%, Bayer Leverkusen 56%. Our prediction is Lech Poznan 1-2 Bayer Leverkusen.
Who is the player to watch in Lech Poznan vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Patrik Schick of Bayer 04 Leverkusen: a poacher with a Moneyball Score of 67 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Lech Poznan vs Bayer Leverkusen?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.5 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 69%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.