Red Bull Salzburg vs AC Milan Prediction and Betting Tips | UEFA Europa League Gameweek 2
UEFA Europa League · Thursday 15 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-10
Red Bull Salzburg welcome AC Milan to Red Bull Arena in Wals-Siezenheim in UEFA Europa League Gameweek 2 action on Thursday 15 October 2026.
Red Bull Salzburg have played 5 matches in UEFA Europa League this season, scoring 1.8 and conceding 0.6 goals a game and winning 80% of them. At home they average 2.0 goals scored and 0.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 50% win rate. AC Milan have played 5 matches in UEFA Europa League this season, scoring 2.0 and conceding 0.8 goals a game and winning 60% of them. Away from home they average 1.7 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 33% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, AC Milan are narrow favourites at 48%, with the draw at 26% and Red Bull Salzburg at 25%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (12.1% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Red Bull Salzburg +0.5 at 2.04, AC Milan at 1.84. The main goals line is 2.75: over 1.84, under 2.02, which gives over 52%.
Red Bull Salzburg: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 2.08 a match created (goals minus xG: -1.4).
- Shots: 16.6 a match, 6.2 on target.
- Possession: 59.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 80% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 20% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.4 a match.
- Discipline: 1.4 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.97.
AC Milan: form and key numbers
In style AC Milan keep the ball, press high.
- Expected goals: 1.59 a match created, 1.11 conceded (goals minus xG: +2.1).
- Shots: 12.8 a match, 4.2 on target.
- Possession: 60.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 40% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 60% of their matches.
- Corners: 2.8 a match.
- Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.95.
Red Bull Salzburg vs AC Milan: season averages side by side
| Red Bull Salzburg | Per match | AC Milan |
|---|---|---|
| 2.08 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.59 |
| – | xG conceded | 1.11 |
| 1.80 | Goals | 2.00 |
| 16.6 | Shots | 12.8 |
| 6.2 | Shots on target | 4.2 |
| 2.2 | Big chances missed | 2.6 |
| – | Pressure share % | 63.2 |
| 14.6 | Tackles | 14.8 |
| 12.4 | Fouls | 10.2 |
| 1.4 | Yellow cards | 1.6 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 5 and 5 measured matches.
Red Bull Salzburg vs AC Milan: head-to-head stats and key numbers
- Red Bull Salzburg have won 0, drawn 1 and lost 1 of the last 2 meetings in our data.
- Goals in those games: Red Bull Salzburg 1, AC Milan 5 - 3.0 a match.
- The most recent meeting finished AC Milan 4-0 Red Bull Salzburg (November 2nd 2022).
Head to head
In their last 2 meetings Red Bull Salzburg won 0, drew 1 and lost 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Nov 2022 | AC Milan | 4 – 0 | Red Bull Salzburg |
| 6 Sep 2022 | Red Bull Salzburg | 1 – 1 | AC Milan |
Players to watch
AC Milan
- Luka Modrić CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 67 · Long passer, Ball circulator (top 3% of his position)
- Strahinja Pavlović CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 60 · Duel winner, Ball-winner (top 5% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Samuel Chukwueze
Samuel Chukwueze, 27 · AC Milan · RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 64
Samuel Chukwueze, 27, plays as a winger for AC Milan in Serie A. Strongest for his role in dispossessed and big chances created. Weakest in fouls won. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RW · Winger Natural, 64
- LW · Winger Accomplished, 60
- RM · Wide midfielder Competent, 56
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Dispossessed | 0.23 / 90 | 95% |
| Big chances created | 0.93 / 90 | 94% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.41 / 90 | 92% |
| Accurate crosses | 1.40 / 90 | 82% |
| Key passes | 2.33 / 90 | 80% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
- ★★★★½ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★★ Classic winger Winger
Scout's notes: Press-resistant, Big-chance creator, Creator.
- What Samuel Chukwueze is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Samuel Chukwueze's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Red Bull Salzburg vs AC Milan prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 2.5 goals - 1.55 for Red Bull Salzburg and 1.00 for AC Milan - with over 2.5 goals at 47% and both teams scoring at 51%. AC Milan have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Red Bull Salzburg 0-1 AC Milan
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Red Bull Salzburg vs AC Milan betting tips
- Tip 1: AC Milan win or draw (double chance) 75% between them
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.55 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (47%)
- Tip 3: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 3.0 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Over 8.5 corners 9.2 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
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Red Bull Salzburg vs AC Milan: questions and answers
When is Red Bull Salzburg vs AC Milan?
Red Bull Salzburg vs AC Milan is on Thursday 15 October 2026, in UEFA Europa League Gameweek 2.
Where is Red Bull Salzburg vs AC Milan played?
At Red Bull Arena, Wals-Siezenheim, Red Bull Salzburg's home ground.
Who will win Red Bull Salzburg vs AC Milan?
AC Milan are the favourites: Red Bull Salzburg 25%, draw 26%, AC Milan 48%. Our prediction is Red Bull Salzburg 0-1 AC Milan.
Who is the player to watch in Red Bull Salzburg vs AC Milan?
Samuel Chukwueze of AC Milan: a creative winger with a Moneyball Score of 64 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Red Bull Salzburg vs AC Milan?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.5 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 47%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.