Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs SC Freiburg: Prediction, Stats and Preview
Bundesliga · Sunday 18 October 2026 · 13:30 UTC · BayArena, Leverkusen · updated 2026-10-09
Bayer 04 Leverkusen host SC Freiburg in the Bundesliga on Sunday 18 October 2026 at BayArena. On this season's numbers, Moneyball's model makes Bayer 04 Leverkusen slight favourites at 42%, in a match close to a coin toss, puts the draw at 24% and expects about 3.4 goals.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Bayer 04 Leverkusen 1.77, SC Freiburg 1.60.
- Over 2.5 goals: 66% · both teams to score: 67%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (4 and 4 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
The difference-maker: Igor Matanovic
Igor Matanovic, 23 · SC Freiburg · CF · Target man
Moneyball Scout picks Igor Matanovic as the player most likely to decide this match, with a Moneyball Score of 72 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues (attacking 66, defensive 73).
- Duels won: 9.17 per 90 minutes, better than 95% of centre-forwards
- Aerial duels won: 4.17 per 90 minutes, better than 91% of centre-forwards
- Shots: 4.17 per 90 minutes, better than 88% of centre-forwards
Bayer 04 Leverkusen concede only 1.3 goals a match this season (0.89 expected): breaking that defence is the job of a target man like Igor Matanovic.
Scout's notes: Duel winner, Dominant in the air, High shot volume.
What he is worth on the market, how many league points he would add to another club and who could replace him: Moneyball Scouting Players Research.
Season statistics
| Bayer 04 Leverkusen | Per match this season | SC Freiburg |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Matches | 4 |
| 2.5 | Goals scored | 3.0 |
| 1.3 | Goals conceded | 0.8 |
| 2.53 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.23 |
| 0.89 | xG conceded | 0.99 |
| 22.5 | Shots | 19.0 |
| 6.3 | On target | 6.5 |
| 61.3 | Possession % | 53.3 |
| 50% | Clean sheets % | 50% |
| 50% | Both teams scored % | 50% |
| 9.3 | Corners | 5.3 |
| 1.8 | Yellow cards | 1.8 |
| 6.98 | Average rating | 7.07 |
Averages per match from Sportmonks.
Players to watch
Bayer 04 Leverkusen
- Aleix García midfielder · rating 7.67 · 4 apps
- Miguel Gutiérrez defender · rating 7.65 · 4 apps
- Patrik Schick forward · rating 7.45 · 4 apps
SC Freiburg
- Igor Matanovic forward · rating 7.91 · 4 apps
- Matthias Ginter defender · rating 7.70 · 4 apps
- Yuito Suzuki midfielder · rating 7.48 · 4 apps
The best-rated players of each side this season, with 180 minutes or more.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Bundesliga previews
- Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen Friday 9 October 2026
- Paderborn vs VfB Stuttgart Saturday 10 October 2026
- RB Leipzig vs Eintracht Frankfurt Saturday 10 October 2026
- FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach Sunday 11 October 2026
- SC Freiburg vs Schalke 04 Sunday 11 October 2026
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Köln Friday 16 October 2026
- Elversberg vs FC Augsburg Saturday 17 October 2026
- Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05 Saturday 17 October 2026
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.