Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05: Prediction, Stats and Preview
Bundesliga · Saturday 17 October 2026 · 13:30 UTC · Veltins-Arena, Gelsenkirchen · updated 2026-10-09
Schalke 04 host FSV Mainz 05 in the Bundesliga on Saturday 17 October 2026 at Veltins-Arena. On this season's numbers, Moneyball's model makes FSV Mainz 05 favourites at 45%, puts the draw at 24% and expects about 3.3 goals.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Schalke 04 1.49, FSV Mainz 05 1.83.
- Over 2.5 goals: 64% · both teams to score: 66%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (4 and 4 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
The difference-maker: Phillip Tietz
Phillip Tietz, 29 · FSV Mainz 05 · CF · Target man
Moneyball Scout picks Phillip Tietz as the player most likely to decide this match, with a Moneyball Score of 75 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues (attacking 65, defensive 69).
- Aerial duels won: 5.25 per 90 minutes, better than 95% of centre-forwards
- Goals: 1.00 per 90 minutes, better than 89% of centre-forwards
- Duels won: 7.50 per 90 minutes, better than 88% of centre-forwards
Schalke 04 concede 1.0 goals a match this season (2.29 expected), about the league's average: whether they hold depends on how they handle a target man like Phillip Tietz.
Scout's notes: Dominant in the air, Clinical finisher, Duel winner.
What he is worth on the market, how many league points he would add to another club and who could replace him: Moneyball Scouting Players Research.
Season statistics
| Schalke 04 | Per match this season | FSV Mainz 05 |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Matches | 4 |
| 0.8 | Goals scored | 2.5 |
| 1.0 | Goals conceded | 1.5 |
| 1.44 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.31 |
| 2.29 | xG conceded | 1.56 |
| 11.8 | Shots | 18.3 |
| 4.3 | On target | 6.3 |
| 35.8 | Possession % | 51.0 |
| 50% | Clean sheets % | 50% |
| 25% | Both teams scored % | 50% |
| 3.0 | Corners | 6.0 |
| 1.0 | Yellow cards | 2.3 |
| 6.84 | Average rating | 6.98 |
Averages per match from Sportmonks.
Players to watch
Schalke 04
- Loris Karius goalkeeper · rating 7.50 · 4 apps
- Nikola Katic defender · rating 7.35 · 4 apps
- Hasan Kuruçay defender · rating 7.27 · 4 apps
FSV Mainz 05
- Sheraldo Becker forward · rating 7.72 · 4 apps
- Phillip Tietz forward · rating 7.65 · 4 apps
- Phillipp Mwene midfielder · rating 7.20 · 4 apps
The best-rated players of each side this season, with 180 minutes or more.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Bundesliga previews
- Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen Friday 9 October 2026
- Paderborn vs VfB Stuttgart Saturday 10 October 2026
- RB Leipzig vs Eintracht Frankfurt Saturday 10 October 2026
- FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach Sunday 11 October 2026
- SC Freiburg vs Schalke 04 Sunday 11 October 2026
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Köln Friday 16 October 2026
- Elversberg vs FC Augsburg Saturday 17 October 2026
- Werder Bremen vs Paderborn Saturday 17 October 2026
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.