Elversberg vs FC Augsburg: Prediction, Stats and Preview
Bundesliga · Saturday 17 October 2026 · 13:30 UTC · URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde, Spiesen-Elversberg · updated 2026-10-09
Elversberg host FC Augsburg in the Bundesliga on Saturday 17 October 2026 at URSAPHARM-Arena an der Kaiserlinde. On this season's numbers, Moneyball's model makes Elversberg slight favourites at 41%, in a match close to a coin toss, puts the draw at 22% and expects about 3.9 goals.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Elversberg 2.01, FC Augsburg 1.91.
- Over 2.5 goals: 75% · both teams to score: 74%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (8%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (4 and 4 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
The difference-maker: Michael Gregoritsch
Michael Gregoritsch, 32 · FC Augsburg · CF · Poacher
Moneyball Scout picks Michael Gregoritsch as the player most likely to decide this match, with a Moneyball Score of 70 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues (attacking 52, defensive 70).
- Shots on target: 89%, better than 97% of centre-forwards
- Aerial duels won: 3.99 per 90 minutes, better than 86% of centre-forwards
- Goals: 0.92 per 90 minutes, better than 83% of centre-forwards
Elversberg concede 1.8 goals a match this season (2.09 expected), about the league's average: whether they hold depends on how they handle a poacher like Michael Gregoritsch.
Scout's notes: Accurate shooter, Dominant in the air, Clinical finisher.
What he is worth on the market, how many league points he would add to another club and who could replace him: Moneyball Scouting Players Research.
Season statistics
| Elversberg | Per match this season | FC Augsburg |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Matches | 4 |
| 2.0 | Goals scored | 2.8 |
| 1.8 | Goals conceded | 1.5 |
| 1.50 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.83 |
| 2.09 | xG conceded | 2.31 |
| 10.3 | Shots | 14.0 |
| 4.5 | On target | 7.3 |
| 42.5 | Possession % | 39.8 |
| 25% | Clean sheets % | 25% |
| 75% | Both teams scored % | 75% |
| 3.8 | Corners | 4.8 |
| 2.0 | Yellow cards | 1.3 |
| 6.73 | Average rating | 6.99 |
Averages per match from Sportmonks.
Players to watch
Elversberg
- Lukas Petkov midfielder · rating 7.11 · 4 apps
- Lukas Pinckert defender · rating 7.06 · 4 apps
- Maximilian Rohr defender · rating 7.05 · 4 apps
FC Augsburg
- Fabian Rieder midfielder · rating 7.59 · 4 apps
- Michael Gregoritsch forward · rating 7.46 · 4 apps
- Finn Dahmen goalkeeper · rating 7.37 · 4 apps
The best-rated players of each side this season, with 180 minutes or more.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Bundesliga previews
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- FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach Sunday 11 October 2026
- SC Freiburg vs Schalke 04 Sunday 11 October 2026
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Köln Friday 16 October 2026
- Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05 Saturday 17 October 2026
- Werder Bremen vs Paderborn Saturday 17 October 2026
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.