Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Köln: Prediction, Stats and Preview
Bundesliga · Friday 16 October 2026 · 18:30 UTC · Deutsche Bank Park, Frankfurt am Main · updated 2026-10-09
Eintracht Frankfurt host FC Köln in the Bundesliga on Friday 16 October 2026 at Deutsche Bank Park. On this season's numbers, Moneyball's model makes Eintracht Frankfurt favourites at 48%, puts the draw at 21% and expects about 4.2 goals.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Eintracht Frankfurt 2.30, FC Köln 1.87.
- Over 2.5 goals: 79% · both teams to score: 77%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (8%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (4 and 4 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
The difference-maker: Younes Ebnoutalib
Younes Ebnoutalib, 23 · Eintracht Frankfurt · CF · Poacher
Moneyball Scout picks Younes Ebnoutalib as the player most likely to decide this match, with a Moneyball Score of 69 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues (attacking 83, defensive 52).
- Goals: 1.28 per 90 minutes, better than 95% of centre-forwards
- Expected goals: 0.69 per 90 minutes, better than 83% of centre-forwards
- Shots: 3.52 per 90 minutes, better than 73% of centre-forwards
FC Köln concede 2.3 goals a match this season (2.10 expected), more than the league's average: the space a poacher like Younes Ebnoutalib lives on.
Scout's notes: Clinical finisher, Gets into scoring positions.
What he is worth on the market, how many league points he would add to another club and who could replace him: Moneyball Scouting Players Research.
Season statistics
| Eintracht Frankfurt | Per match this season | FC Köln |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Matches | 4 |
| 2.3 | Goals scored | 1.5 |
| 2.5 | Goals conceded | 2.3 |
| 1.76 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.99 |
| 2.29 | xG conceded | 2.10 |
| 13.8 | Shots | 17.0 |
| 4.8 | On target | 5.0 |
| 49.5 | Possession % | 49.5 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 0% |
| 100% | Both teams scored % | 100% |
| 4.8 | Corners | 6.8 |
| 2.3 | Yellow cards | 2.0 |
| 6.90 | Average rating | 6.74 |
Averages per match from Sportmonks.
Players to watch
Eintracht Frankfurt
- Younes Ebnoutalib forward · rating 7.54 · 4 apps
- Jeremiaha Maluze defender · rating 7.52 · 2 apps
- Jonathan Burkardt forward · rating 7.35 · 4 apps
FC Köln
- Linton Maina midfielder · rating 7.12 · 4 apps
- Ragnar Ache forward · rating 6.96 · 4 apps
- Marvin Schwäbe goalkeeper · rating 6.87 · 4 apps
The best-rated players of each side this season, with 180 minutes or more.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Bundesliga previews
- Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen Friday 9 October 2026
- Paderborn vs VfB Stuttgart Saturday 10 October 2026
- RB Leipzig vs Eintracht Frankfurt Saturday 10 October 2026
- FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach Sunday 11 October 2026
- SC Freiburg vs Schalke 04 Sunday 11 October 2026
- Elversberg vs FC Augsburg Saturday 17 October 2026
- Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05 Saturday 17 October 2026
- Werder Bremen vs Paderborn Saturday 17 October 2026
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.