Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen: Prediction, Stats and Preview
Bundesliga · Friday 9 October 2026 · 18:30 UTC · Signal Iduna Park, Dortmund · updated 2026-10-09
Borussia Dortmund host Werder Bremen in the Bundesliga on Friday 9 October 2026 at Signal Iduna Park. On this season's numbers, Moneyball's model makes Borussia Dortmund favourites at 59%, puts the draw at 22% and expects about 3.2 goals.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Borussia Dortmund 2.08, Werder Bremen 1.12.
- Over 2.5 goals: 62% · both teams to score: 59%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (4 and 4 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
The difference-maker: Niclas Füllkrug
Niclas Füllkrug, 33 · Werder Bremen · CF · Target man
Moneyball Scout picks Niclas Füllkrug as the player most likely to decide this match, with a Moneyball Score of 64 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues (attacking 61, defensive 59).
- Shots on target: 64%, better than 86% of centre-forwards
- Key passes: 1.76 per 90 minutes, better than 84% of centre-forwards
- Goals: 0.88 per 90 minutes, better than 82% of centre-forwards
Borussia Dortmund concede only 0.5 goals a match this season (0.96 expected): breaking that defence is the job of a target man like Niclas Füllkrug.
Scout's notes: Accurate shooter, Chance creator, Clinical finisher.
What he is worth on the market, how many league points he would add to another club and who could replace him: Moneyball Scouting Players Research.
Season statistics
| Borussia Dortmund | Per match this season | Werder Bremen |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Matches | 4 |
| 2.3 | Goals scored | 2.0 |
| 0.5 | Goals conceded | 2.0 |
| 1.72 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.29 |
| 0.96 | xG conceded | 1.59 |
| 14.5 | Shots | 13.8 |
| 5.3 | On target | 6.5 |
| 48.8 | Possession % | 48.8 |
| 75% | Clean sheets % | 0% |
| 25% | Both teams scored % | 100% |
| 3.8 | Corners | 3.5 |
| 2.5 | Yellow cards | 1.3 |
| 7.01 | Average rating | 6.92 |
Averages per match from Sportmonks.
Players to watch
Borussia Dortmund
- Felix Nmecha midfielder · rating 7.52 · 4 apps
- Serhou Guirassy forward · rating 7.38 · 4 apps
- Waldemar Anton defender · rating 7.31 · 4 apps
Werder Bremen
- Marco Grüll midfielder · rating 7.98 · 4 apps
- Niclas Füllkrug forward · rating 7.28 · 4 apps
- Chuki forward · rating 7.22 · 4 apps
The best-rated players of each side this season, with 180 minutes or more.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Bundesliga previews
- Paderborn vs VfB Stuttgart Saturday 10 October 2026
- RB Leipzig vs Eintracht Frankfurt Saturday 10 October 2026
- FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach Sunday 11 October 2026
- SC Freiburg vs Schalke 04 Sunday 11 October 2026
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Köln Friday 16 October 2026
- Elversberg vs FC Augsburg Saturday 17 October 2026
- Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05 Saturday 17 October 2026
- Werder Bremen vs Paderborn Saturday 17 October 2026
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.