Benfica vs Alverca Prediction and Betting Tips | Liga Portugal Gameweek 10
Liga Portugal · Monday 2 November 2026 · 20:15 UTC · Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica, Lisboa · updated 2026-10-25
Benfica welcome Alverca to Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica in Lisboa in Liga Portugal Gameweek 10 action on Monday 2 November 2026, kick-off 20:15 UTC.
Benfica have played 8 matches in Liga Portugal this season, scoring 3.0 and conceding 0.9 goals a game and winning 75% of them. At home they average 2.3 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 4 matches, with a 50% win rate. Alverca have played 9 matches in Liga Portugal this season, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.4 goals a game and winning 33% of them. Away from home they average 2.0 goals scored and 1.8 conceded over 4 matches, with a 67% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Benfica are clear favourites at 73%, with the draw at 17% and Alverca at 11%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Benfica 2.56, Alverca 0.90.
- Over 2.5 goals: 67% · both teams to score: 55%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (8 and 9 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Benfica: form and key numbers
In style Benfica keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 2.32 a match created, 0.73 conceded (goals minus xG: +5.4).
- Shots: 19.6 a match, 6.9 on target.
- Possession: 63.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 50% of matches (25% at home).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 7.8 a match.
- Discipline: 1.9 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.05.
Alverca: form and key numbers
In style Alverca are happy without the ball, play long and direct, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.29 a match created, 1.47 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.4).
- Shots: 11.9 a match, 3.8 on target.
- Possession: 41.1% on average.
- Clean sheets: 11% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 67% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.6 a match.
- Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards a match, 3.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.74.
Benfica vs Alverca: season averages side by side
| Benfica | Per match this season | Alverca |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Matches | 9 |
| 3.0 | Goals scored | 1.4 |
| 0.9 | Goals conceded | 1.4 |
| 2.32 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.29 |
| 0.73 | xG conceded | 1.47 |
| 19.6 | Shots | 11.9 |
| 6.9 | On target | 3.8 |
| 63.4 | Possession % | 41.1 |
| 50% | Clean sheets % | 11% |
| 50% | Both teams scored % | 67% |
| 7.8 | Corners | 4.6 |
| 1.9 | Yellow cards | 2.2 |
| 7.05 | Average rating | 6.74 |
Players to watch
Benfica
- Vangelis Pavlidis CF · Complete forward · Moneyball Score 74 · Takes high-quality shots, Chance creator (top 10% of his position)
- Andreas Schjelderup LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 68 · Crosser, Chance creator (top 1% of his position)
Alverca
- Francisco Jorge Tavares Oliveira LWF · Classic winger · Moneyball Score 58 · Draws fouls, Chance creator (top 1% of his position)
- Dawda Camara CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 51 · Accurate shooter, Takes high-quality shots (top 18% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Gianluca Prestianni
Gianluca Prestianni, 20 · Benfica · RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 83
Gianluca Prestianni, 20, plays as a winger for Benfica in Liga Portugal. Strongest for his role in shots and fouls won. Weakest in dispossessed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LW · Winger Natural, 83
- RW · Winger Natural, 83
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Accomplished, 77
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shots | 4.21 / 90 | 94% |
| Fouls won | 3.40 / 90 | 94% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.42 / 90 | 93% |
| Big chances created | 0.82 / 90 | 93% |
| Key passes | 2.99 / 90 | 88% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★★½ Inside forward Winger
- ★★★★ Dribbling playmaker Attacking midfielder
Scout's notes: High shot volume, Draws fouls, Creator.
- What Gianluca Prestianni is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Gianluca Prestianni's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Benfica vs Alverca prediction
Benfica should have more of the ball, with Alverca likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Benfica are a threat in the air and from set pieces; Alverca like to take players on. Moneyball's model expects about 3.5 goals - 2.56 for Benfica and 0.90 for Alverca - with over 2.5 goals at 67% and both teams scoring at 55%. Benfica have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Benfica 2-1 Alverca
Benfica vs Alverca betting tips
- Tip 1: Benfica to win 73% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 67% by the model, 3.46 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 55% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 8.1 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 12.3 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Liga Portugal previews
- Estoril vs Moreirense Sunday 25 October 2026
- Rio Ave vs Famalicão Sunday 25 October 2026
- Nacional vs Sporting Braga Sunday 25 October 2026
- Sporting CP vs Academico Viseu Sunday 25 October 2026
- Santa Clara vs Benfica Monday 26 October 2026
- Casa Pia vs Sporting CP Friday 30 October 2026
- Moreirense vs Estrela Amadora Saturday 31 October 2026
- Porto vs Estoril Saturday 31 October 2026
Benfica vs Alverca: questions and answers
When is Benfica vs Alverca?
Benfica vs Alverca is on Monday 2 November 2026, kick-off 20:15 UTC, in Liga Portugal Gameweek 10.
Where is Benfica vs Alverca played?
At Estádio do Sport Lisboa e Benfica, Lisboa, Benfica's home ground.
Who will win Benfica vs Alverca?
Benfica are the favourites: Benfica 73%, draw 17%, Alverca 11%. Our prediction is Benfica 2-1 Alverca.
Who is the player to watch in Benfica vs Alverca?
Gianluca Prestianni of Benfica: a creative winger with a Moneyball Score of 83 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Benfica vs Alverca?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.5 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 67%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.