Werder Bremen vs Paderborn: Prediction, Stats and Preview
Bundesliga · Saturday 17 October 2026 · 13:30 UTC · Wohninvest Weserstadion, Bremen · updated 2026-10-09
Werder Bremen host Paderborn in the Bundesliga on Saturday 17 October 2026 at Wohninvest Weserstadion. On this season's numbers, Moneyball's model makes Werder Bremen favourites at 49%, puts the draw at 25% and expects about 2.9 goals.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Werder Bremen 1.69, Paderborn 1.18.
- Over 2.5 goals: 55% · both teams to score: 57%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (12%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (4 and 4 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
The difference-maker: Laurin Curda
Laurin Curda, 24 · Paderborn · RMF · Two-way wide midfielder
Moneyball Scout picks Laurin Curda as the player most likely to decide this match, with a Moneyball Score of 71 against every wide midfielder in Europe's top five leagues (attacking 44, defensive 75).
- Duels won: 9.08 per 90 minutes, better than 95% of wide midfielders
- Key passes: 1.87 per 90 minutes, better than 89% of wide midfielders
- Tackles: 2.67 per 90 minutes, better than 89% of wide midfielders
Werder Bremen concede 2.0 goals a match this season (1.59 expected), about the league's average: whether they hold depends on how they handle a two-way wide midfielder like Laurin Curda.
Scout's notes: Duel winner, Chance creator, Ball-winner.
What he is worth on the market, how many league points he would add to another club and who could replace him: Moneyball Scouting Players Research.
Season statistics
| Werder Bremen | Per match this season | Paderborn |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Matches | 4 |
| 2.0 | Goals scored | 0.8 |
| 2.0 | Goals conceded | 1.3 |
| 1.29 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.81 |
| 1.59 | xG conceded | 1.54 |
| 13.8 | Shots | 11.8 |
| 6.5 | On target | 2.0 |
| 48.8 | Possession % | 46.8 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 25% |
| 100% | Both teams scored % | 25% |
| 3.5 | Corners | 4.0 |
| 1.3 | Yellow cards | 1.5 |
| 6.92 | Average rating | 6.85 |
Averages per match from Sportmonks.
Players to watch
Werder Bremen
- Marco Grüll midfielder · rating 7.98 · 4 apps
- Niclas Füllkrug forward · rating 7.28 · 4 apps
- Chuki forward · rating 7.22 · 4 apps
Paderborn
- Santiago Castañeda midfielder · rating 7.26 · 4 apps
- Nahuel Noll goalkeeper · rating 7.21 · 4 apps
- Jano ter Horst defender · rating 7.10 · 4 apps
The best-rated players of each side this season, with 180 minutes or more.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Bundesliga previews
- Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen Friday 9 October 2026
- Paderborn vs VfB Stuttgart Saturday 10 October 2026
- RB Leipzig vs Eintracht Frankfurt Saturday 10 October 2026
- FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach Sunday 11 October 2026
- SC Freiburg vs Schalke 04 Sunday 11 October 2026
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Köln Friday 16 October 2026
- Elversberg vs FC Augsburg Saturday 17 October 2026
- Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05 Saturday 17 October 2026
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.