Borussia Mönchengladbach vs TSG Hoffenheim: Prediction, Stats and Preview
Bundesliga · Sunday 18 October 2026 · 15:30 UTC · Stadion im Borussia-Park, Mönchengladbach · updated 2026-10-09
Borussia Mönchengladbach host TSG Hoffenheim in the Bundesliga on Sunday 18 October 2026 at Stadion im Borussia-Park. On this season's numbers, Moneyball's model makes TSG Hoffenheim favourites at 46%, puts the draw at 20% and expects about 4.5 goals.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Borussia Mönchengladbach 2.06, TSG Hoffenheim 2.41.
- Over 2.5 goals: 82% · both teams to score: 80%.
- Most likely score: 2–2 (7%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (4 and 4 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
The difference-maker: Ozan Kabak
Ozan Kabak, 26 · TSG Hoffenheim · CB · Box defender
Moneyball Scout picks Ozan Kabak as the player most likely to decide this match, with a Moneyball Score of 66 against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues (attacking 76, defensive 70).
- Aerial duels won: 6.45 per 90 minutes, better than 99% of centre-backs
- Duels won: 7.74 per 90 minutes, better than 95% of centre-backs
- Clearances: 8.77 per 90 minutes, better than 93% of centre-backs
Borussia Mönchengladbach score 1.5 goals a match this season from 1.86 expected: stopping them runs through Ozan Kabak.
Scout's notes: Dominant in the air, Duel winner, Box defender.
What he is worth on the market, how many league points he would add to another club and who could replace him: Moneyball Scouting Players Research.
Season statistics
| Borussia Mönchengladbach | Per match this season | TSG Hoffenheim |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Matches | 4 |
| 1.5 | Goals scored | 1.8 |
| 4.0 | Goals conceded | 2.5 |
| 1.86 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.83 |
| 3.12 | xG conceded | 1.66 |
| 16.5 | Shots | 19.0 |
| 4.3 | On target | 5.0 |
| 47.5 | Possession % | 57.0 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 0% |
| 50% | Both teams scored % | 100% |
| 6.8 | Corners | 6.8 |
| 3.0 | Yellow cards | 2.0 |
| 6.56 | Average rating | 6.81 |
Averages per match from Sportmonks.
Players to watch
Borussia Mönchengladbach
- Hugo Bolin midfielder · rating 7.14 · 4 apps
- Franck Honorat forward · rating 7.11 · 4 apps
- Lukas Ullrich midfielder · rating 6.65 · 3 apps
TSG Hoffenheim
- Ozan Kabak defender · rating 7.21 · 4 apps
- Adam Daghim midfielder · rating 7.20 · 4 apps
- Adam Hlozek forward · rating 7.08 · 4 apps
The best-rated players of each side this season, with 180 minutes or more.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Bundesliga previews
- Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen Friday 9 October 2026
- Paderborn vs VfB Stuttgart Saturday 10 October 2026
- RB Leipzig vs Eintracht Frankfurt Saturday 10 October 2026
- FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach Sunday 11 October 2026
- SC Freiburg vs Schalke 04 Sunday 11 October 2026
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Köln Friday 16 October 2026
- Elversberg vs FC Augsburg Saturday 17 October 2026
- Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05 Saturday 17 October 2026
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.