Bournemouth AFC vs Sturm Graz Prediction and Betting Tips | UEFA Europa League Gameweek 2
UEFA Europa League · Thursday 15 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-10
Bournemouth AFC welcome Sturm Graz to Vitality Stadium in Bournemouth in UEFA Europa League Gameweek 2 action on Thursday 15 October 2026.
Bournemouth AFC have played 6 matches in UEFA Europa League this season, scoring 1.2 and conceding 2.2 goals a game and winning 0% of them. At home they average 1.0 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 0% win rate. Sturm Graz have played 4 matches in UEFA Europa League this season, scoring 1.5 and conceding 0.8 goals a game and winning 50% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, Bournemouth AFC are clear favourites at 76%, with the draw at 15% and Sturm Graz at 9%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (12.8% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Bournemouth AFC -2 at 1.93, Sturm Graz at 1.96. The main goals line is 3.5: over 2.03, under 1.83, which gives over 47%.
Bournemouth AFC: form and key numbers
In style Bournemouth AFC play long and direct, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.44 a match created, 1.23 conceded (goals minus xG: -1.6).
- Shots: 12.8 a match, 5.0 on target.
- Possession: 48.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 83% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.7 a match.
- Discipline: 3.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.70.
Sturm Graz: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.62 a match created (goals minus xG: -0.5).
- Shots: 15.3 a match, 4.5 on target.
- Possession: 36.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 50% of matches (50% away).
- Both teams scored in 0% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.8 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.91.
Bournemouth AFC vs Sturm Graz: season averages side by side
| Bournemouth AFC | Per match | Sturm Graz |
|---|---|---|
| 1.44 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.62 |
| 1.23 | xG conceded | – |
| 1.17 | Goals | 1.50 |
| 12.8 | Shots | 15.3 |
| 5.0 | Shots on target | 4.5 |
| 2.3 | Big chances missed | 2.0 |
| 52.3 | Pressure share % | – |
| 16.3 | Tackles | 24.3 |
| 12.5 | Fouls | 16.0 |
| 3.0 | Yellow cards | 1.8 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 6 and 4 measured matches.
Players to watch
Bournemouth AFC
- James Hill CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 67 · Long passer, Duel winner (top 7% of his position)
- António Silva CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 62 · Dominant in the air, Long passer (top 10% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Adrien Truffert
Adrien Truffert, 24 · AFC Bournemouth · LB · Defensive full-back · Moneyball Score 74
Adrien Truffert, 24, plays as a full-back for AFC Bournemouth in the Premier League. Strongest for his role in tackles and interceptions. Weakest in dribbled past. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every full-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average full-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LB · Full-back Natural, 74
- RB · Full-back Accomplished, 70
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Tackles | 3.54 / 90 | 97% |
| Interceptions | 1.69 / 90 | 93% |
| Accurate crosses | 0.84 / 90 | 92% |
| Duels won | 5.56 / 90 | 81% |
| Key passes | 1.01 / 90 | 81% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Defensive full-back Full-back
- ★★★★ Attacking full-back Full-back
- ★★★ Inverted full-back Full-back
Scout's notes: Ball-winner, Reads the game, Crosser.
- What Adrien Truffert is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Adrien Truffert's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Bournemouth AFC vs Sturm Graz prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals - 1.13 for Bournemouth AFC and 1.53 for Sturm Graz - with over 2.5 goals at 50% and both teams scoring at 54%. Bournemouth AFC have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Bournemouth AFC 1-0 Sturm Graz
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Bournemouth AFC vs Sturm Graz betting tips
- Tip 1: Bournemouth AFC to win 76% on the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.66 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (50%)
- Tip 3: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 4.8 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Under 10.5 corners 8.4 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
Open Bournemouth AFC vs Sturm Graz in the Match Centre Follow it live
More UEFA Europa League previews
- Sparta Praha vs Lillestrom Thursday 15 October 2026
- AZ Alkmaar vs Hapoel Beer Sheva Thursday 15 October 2026
- Red Bull Salzburg vs AC Milan Thursday 15 October 2026
- Lech Poznan vs Bayer Leverkusen Thursday 15 October 2026
- Celje vs Omonia Nicosia Thursday 15 October 2026
- Lyon vs Crystal Palace Thursday 15 October 2026
Bournemouth AFC vs Sturm Graz: questions and answers
When is Bournemouth AFC vs Sturm Graz?
Bournemouth AFC vs Sturm Graz is on Thursday 15 October 2026, in UEFA Europa League Gameweek 2.
Where is Bournemouth AFC vs Sturm Graz played?
At Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth, Bournemouth AFC's home ground.
Who will win Bournemouth AFC vs Sturm Graz?
Bournemouth AFC are the favourites: Bournemouth AFC 76%, draw 15%, Sturm Graz 9%. Our prediction is Bournemouth AFC 1-0 Sturm Graz.
Who is the player to watch in Bournemouth AFC vs Sturm Graz?
Adrien Truffert of AFC Bournemouth: a defensive full-back with a Moneyball Score of 74 against every full-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Bournemouth AFC vs Sturm Graz?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 50%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.