Brentford vs Nottingham Forest Prediction and Betting Tips | Premier League Gameweek 9
Premier League · Saturday 31 October 2026 · 15:00 UTC · Gtech Community Stadium, Brentford · updated 2026-10-17
Brentford welcome Nottingham Forest to Gtech Community Stadium in Brentford in Premier League Gameweek 9 action on Saturday 31 October 2026, kick-off 15:00 UTC.
Brentford have played 6 matches in the Premier League this season, scoring 2.0 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 33% of them. At home they average 2.3 goals scored and 0.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 100% win rate. Nottingham Forest have played 6 matches in the Premier League this season, scoring 0.8 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 17% of them. Away from home they average 1.7 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 3 matches, with a 100% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Brentford are narrow favourites at 53%, with the draw at 25% and Nottingham Forest at 23%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Brentford 1.79, Nottingham Forest 1.10.
- Over 2.5 goals: 55% · both teams to score: 56%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (12%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (6 and 6 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Brentford: form and key numbers
In style Brentford are happy without the ball, play long and direct, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.87 a match created, 1.47 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.8).
- Shots: 15.8 a match, 4.5 on target.
- Possession: 45.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 33% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 67% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.0 a match.
- Discipline: 2.7 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.86.
Nottingham Forest: form and key numbers
In style Nottingham Forest press high, play long and direct, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.69 a match created, 1.28 conceded (goals minus xG: -5.1).
- Shots: 17.7 a match, 3.8 on target.
- Possession: 48.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 17% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.2 a match.
- Discipline: 2.5 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.86.
Brentford vs Nottingham Forest: season averages side by side
| Brentford | Per match this season | Nottingham Forest |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Matches | 6 |
| 2.0 | Goals scored | 0.8 |
| 1.0 | Goals conceded | 1.3 |
| 1.87 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.69 |
| 1.47 | xG conceded | 1.28 |
| 15.8 | Shots | 17.7 |
| 4.5 | On target | 3.8 |
| 45.5 | Possession % | 48.8 |
| 33% | Clean sheets % | 17% |
| 67% | Both teams scored % | 50% |
| 4.0 | Corners | 4.2 |
| 2.7 | Yellow cards | 2.5 |
| 6.86 | Average rating | 6.86 |
Players to watch
Brentford
- Caoimhín Kelleher GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 71 · Box defender, Long passer (top 18% of his position)
- Vitaly Janelt DMF · Ball-winner · Moneyball Score 59 · Reads the game, Blocks shots (top 2% of his position)
Nottingham Forest
Scouting spotlight: Morgan Gibbs-White
Morgan Gibbs-White, 26 · Nottingham Forest · AMF · Dribbling playmaker · Moneyball Score 63
Morgan Gibbs-White, 26, plays as an attacking midfielder for Nottingham Forest in the Premier League. Strongest for his role in expected assists (est.) and big chances created. Weakest in through balls. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average attacking midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Natural, 63
- LW · Winger Accomplished, 63
- RW · Winger Accomplished, 63
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.50 / 90 | 96% |
| Big chances created | 1.17 / 90 | 96% |
| Key passes | 2.83 / 90 | 84% |
| Successful dribbles | 1.17 / 90 | 59% |
| Expected goals | 0.23 / 90 | 51% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★★½ Link-up forward Second striker
- ★★★½ Classic winger Winger
Scout's notes: Creator, Big-chance creator, Chance creator.
- What Morgan Gibbs-White is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Morgan Gibbs-White's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Brentford vs Nottingham Forest prediction
Nottingham Forest should have more of the ball; both sides are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals - 1.79 for Brentford and 1.10 for Nottingham Forest - with over 2.5 goals at 55% and both teams scoring at 56%. Brentford have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Brentford 2-1 Nottingham Forest
Brentford vs Nottingham Forest betting tips
- Tip 1: Brentford win or draw (double chance) 77% between them
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 55% by the model, 2.90 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 56% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 5.2 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Under 10.5 corners 8.2 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Premier League previews
- Ipswich Town vs Nottingham Forest Friday 23 October 2026
- Aston Villa vs Manchester City Saturday 24 October 2026
- Coventry City vs Fulham Saturday 24 October 2026
- Arsenal vs Everton Saturday 24 October 2026
- Chelsea vs Tottenham Hotspur Saturday 24 October 2026
- Manchester United vs AFC Bournemouth Sunday 25 October 2026
- Liverpool vs Brighton & Hove Albion Sunday 25 October 2026
- Hull City vs Brentford Sunday 25 October 2026
Brentford vs Nottingham Forest: questions and answers
When is Brentford vs Nottingham Forest?
Brentford vs Nottingham Forest is on Saturday 31 October 2026, kick-off 15:00 UTC, in Premier League Gameweek 9.
Where is Brentford vs Nottingham Forest played?
At Gtech Community Stadium, Brentford, Brentford's home ground.
Who will win Brentford vs Nottingham Forest?
Brentford are the favourites: Brentford 53%, draw 25%, Nottingham Forest 23%. Our prediction is Brentford 2-1 Nottingham Forest.
Who is the player to watch in Brentford vs Nottingham Forest?
Morgan Gibbs-White of Nottingham Forest: a dribbling playmaker with a Moneyball Score of 63 against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Brentford vs Nottingham Forest?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 55%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.