Brest vs Paris Prediction and Stats | Ligue 1 Gameweek 12
Ligue 1 · Friday 27 November 2026 · 19:45 UTC · Stade Francis-Le Ble, Brest · updated 2026-11-14
Brest welcome Paris to Stade Francis-Le Ble in Brest in Ligue 1 Gameweek 12 action on Friday 27 November 2026, kick-off 19:45 UTC.
Brest have played 10 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.2 goals a game and winning 40% of them. At home they average 2.0 goals scored and 1.2 conceded over 5 matches, with a 50% win rate. Paris have played 10 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 1.7 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 60% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 5 matches, with a 33% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Brest 41%, the draw 27%, Paris 32%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Brest 1.48, Paris 1.28.
- Over 2.5 goals: 52% · both teams to score: 56%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (10 and 10 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Brest: form and key numbers
In style Brest are happy without the ball, play long and direct, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.82 a match created, 1.27 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.3).
- Shots: 16.1 a match, 5.7 on target.
- Possession: 45.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 20% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 70% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.0 a match.
- Discipline: 1.4 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.88.
Paris: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.59 a match created, 1.06 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.1).
- Shots: 13.5 a match, 4.9 on target.
- Possession: 51.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 40% of matches (50% away).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.6 a match.
- Discipline: 2.1 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.93.
Brest vs Paris: season averages side by side
| Brest | Per match this season | Paris |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Matches | 10 |
| 1.8 | Goals scored | 1.7 |
| 1.2 | Goals conceded | 1.0 |
| 1.82 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.59 |
| 1.27 | xG conceded | 1.06 |
| 16.1 | Shots | 13.5 |
| 5.7 | On target | 4.9 |
| 45.0 | Possession % | 51.4 |
| 20% | Clean sheets % | 40% |
| 70% | Both teams scored % | 50% |
| 4.0 | Corners | 3.6 |
| 1.4 | Yellow cards | 2.1 |
| 6.88 | Average rating | 6.93 |
Players to watch
Brest
- Raphaël Le Guen CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 60 · Hard to dribble past, Dominant in the air (top 8% of his position)
- Bradley Locko LB · Attacking full-back · Moneyball Score 60 · Duel winner, Dribbler (top 20% of his position)
Paris
- Pierre Lees-Melou DMF · Deep-lying playmaker · Moneyball Score 61 · Ball-winner, Secure passer (top 12% of his position)
- Maxime Lopez DMF · Deep-lying playmaker · Moneyball Score 57 · Secure passer, Ball circulator (top 4% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Lassine Sinayoko
Lassine Sinayoko, 26 · Paris · CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 72
Lassine Sinayoko, 26, plays as a centre-forward for Paris in Ligue 1. Strongest for his role in key passes and shot quality (xG per shot). Weakest in aerial duels won. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 72
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 69
- RW · Winger Accomplished, 63
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Key passes | 2.17 / 90 | 94% |
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.20 xG/shot | 86% |
| Goals, luck taken out | 0.70 / 90 | 85% |
| Expected goals | 0.63 / 90 | 81% |
| Shots on target | 52% | 80% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★★½ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★★★½ Pressing forward Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Chance creator, Takes high-quality shots, Scores and makes the chances to keep scoring.
- What Lassine Sinayoko is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Lassine Sinayoko's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Brest vs Paris prediction
Paris should have more of the ball, with Brest likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Brest are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals - 1.48 for Brest and 1.28 for Paris - with over 2.5 goals at 52% and both teams scoring at 56%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Brest 1-1 Paris
Brest vs Paris: what the numbers say
- 1. A draw or either side by one goal is the likeliest shape no side above 41%
- 2. 2 or more goals 2.76 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (52%)
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 56% by the model
- 4. 4 cards or fewer the two sides average 3.5 cards a match between them
- 5. 10 corners or fewer 7.6 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
More Ligue 1 previews
- Troyes vs Le Havre Friday 20 November 2026
- Nice vs Paris Saint Germain Saturday 21 November 2026
- Strasbourg vs Brest Saturday 21 November 2026
- Monaco vs Auxerre Saturday 21 November 2026
- LOSC Lille vs Olympique Lyonnais Saturday 21 November 2026
- Lens vs Toulouse Saturday 21 November 2026
- Paris vs Angers SCO Sunday 22 November 2026
- Lorient vs Rennes Sunday 22 November 2026
Brest vs Paris: questions and answers
When is Brest vs Paris?
Brest vs Paris is on Friday 27 November 2026, kick-off 19:45 UTC, in Ligue 1 Gameweek 12.
Where is Brest vs Paris played?
At Stade Francis-Le Ble, Brest, Brest's home ground.
Who will win Brest vs Paris?
It is close: Brest 41%, draw 27%, Paris 32%. Our prediction is Brest 1-1 Paris.
Who is the player to watch in Brest vs Paris?
Lassine Sinayoko of Paris: a poacher with a Moneyball Score of 72 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Brest vs Paris?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 52%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.