Chelsea vs Manchester United Prediction and Betting Tips | Premier League Gameweek 9
Premier League · Saturday 31 October 2026 · 12:30 UTC · Stamford Bridge, London · updated 2026-10-17
Chelsea welcome Manchester United to Stamford Bridge in London in Premier League Gameweek 9 action on Saturday 31 October 2026, kick-off 12:30 UTC.
Chelsea have played 6 matches in the Premier League this season, scoring 2.5 and conceding 2.2 goals a game and winning 50% of them. At home they average 3.7 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 3 matches, with a 67% win rate. Manchester United have played 6 matches in the Premier League this season, scoring 1.5 and conceding 1.5 goals a game and winning 17% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 1.7 conceded over 3 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Chelsea 41%, the draw 23%, Manchester United 35%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Chelsea 1.84, Manchester United 1.69.
- Over 2.5 goals: 68% · both teams to score: 69%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (6 and 6 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Chelsea: form and key numbers
In style Chelsea are strong in the air, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.48 a match created, 1.60 conceded (goals minus xG: +6.2).
- Shots: 13.7 a match, 5.3 on target.
- Possession: 47.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 83% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.7 a match.
- Discipline: 1.5 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.90.
Manchester United: form and key numbers
In style Manchester United keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.85 a match created, 1.14 conceded (goals minus xG: -2.1).
- Shots: 20.8 a match, 5.3 on target.
- Possession: 58.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 67% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.7 a match.
- Discipline: 1.7 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.91.
Chelsea vs Manchester United: season averages side by side
| Chelsea | Per match this season | Manchester United |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Matches | 6 |
| 2.5 | Goals scored | 1.5 |
| 2.2 | Goals conceded | 1.5 |
| 1.48 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.85 |
| 1.60 | xG conceded | 1.14 |
| 13.7 | Shots | 20.8 |
| 5.3 | On target | 5.3 |
| 47.8 | Possession % | 58.3 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 0% |
| 83% | Both teams scored % | 67% |
| 5.7 | Corners | 6.7 |
| 1.5 | Yellow cards | 1.7 |
| 6.90 | Average rating | 6.91 |
Players to watch
Chelsea
- Wesley Fofana CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 71 · Reads the game, Box defender (top 3% of his position)
- Cole Palmer AMF · Dribbling playmaker · Moneyball Score 69 · Big-chance creator, Creator (top 5% of his position)
Manchester United
- Marcus Rashford LWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 72 · Press-resistant, Chance creator (top 4% of his position)
- Kobbie Mainoo CMF · Ball-winning midfielder · Moneyball Score 70 · Secure passer, Dribbler (top 1% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: João Pedro
João Pedro, 25 · Chelsea · CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 80
João Pedro, 25, plays as a centre-forward for Chelsea in the Premier League. Strongest for his role in duels won and goals. Weakest in shots. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 80
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Duels won | 7.92 / 90 | 94% |
| Goals | 1.04 / 90 | 93% |
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.21 xG/shot | 87% |
| Aerial duels won | 3.33 / 90 | 86% |
| Big chances missed | 0.21 / 90 | 82% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Target man Centre-forward
- ★★★★½ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★★★★ Dribbling forward Second striker
Scout's notes: Duel winner, Clinical finisher, Takes high-quality shots.
- What João Pedro is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open João Pedro's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Chelsea vs Manchester United prediction
Manchester United should have more of the ball, with Chelsea likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Chelsea are a threat in the air and from set pieces; Manchester United work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 3.5 goals - 1.84 for Chelsea and 1.69 for Manchester United - with over 2.5 goals at 68% and both teams scoring at 69%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Chelsea 1-1 Manchester United
Chelsea vs Manchester United betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 41%
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 68% by the model, 3.53 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 69% by the model
- Tip 4: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 3.2 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 12.3 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Premier League previews
- Ipswich Town vs Nottingham Forest Friday 23 October 2026
- Aston Villa vs Manchester City Saturday 24 October 2026
- Coventry City vs Fulham Saturday 24 October 2026
- Arsenal vs Everton Saturday 24 October 2026
- Chelsea vs Tottenham Hotspur Saturday 24 October 2026
- Manchester United vs AFC Bournemouth Sunday 25 October 2026
- Liverpool vs Brighton & Hove Albion Sunday 25 October 2026
- Hull City vs Brentford Sunday 25 October 2026
Chelsea vs Manchester United: questions and answers
When is Chelsea vs Manchester United?
Chelsea vs Manchester United is on Saturday 31 October 2026, kick-off 12:30 UTC, in Premier League Gameweek 9.
Where is Chelsea vs Manchester United played?
At Stamford Bridge, London, Chelsea's home ground.
Who will win Chelsea vs Manchester United?
It is close: Chelsea 41%, draw 23%, Manchester United 35%. Our prediction is Chelsea 1-1 Manchester United.
Who is the player to watch in Chelsea vs Manchester United?
João Pedro of Chelsea: a target man with a Moneyball Score of 80 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Chelsea vs Manchester United?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.5 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 68%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.