Crystal Palace vs Real Sociedad Prediction and Stats | Europa League Gameweek 5
Europa League · Thursday 26 November 2026 · 20:00 UTC · Selhurst Park, London · updated 2026-11-13
Crystal Palace welcome Real Sociedad to Selhurst Park in London in Europa League Gameweek 5 action on Thursday 26 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC.
Crystal Palace have played 4 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 2.3 and conceding 1.5 goals a game and winning 25% of them. At home they average 2.5 goals scored and 0.5 conceded over 2 matches, with a 100% win rate. Real Sociedad have played 4 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 2.3 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 25% of them. Away from home they average 3.5 goals scored and 0.5 conceded over 2 matches, with a 100% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Real Sociedad are narrow favourites at 47%, with the draw at 23% and Crystal Palace at 30%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Crystal Palace 1.59, Real Sociedad 2.01.
- Over 2.5 goals: 70% · both teams to score: 69%.
- Most likely score: 1–3 (6%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (10 and 12 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Crystal Palace: form and key numbers
In style Crystal Palace are happy without the ball.
- Expected goals: 1.62 a match created (goals minus xG: +2.5).
- Shots: 12.3 a match, 4.5 on target.
- Possession: 49.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 25% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 75% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.3 a match.
- Discipline: 2.3 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.88.
Real Sociedad: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.42 a match created (goals minus xG: +3.3).
- Shots: 12.3 a match, 4.5 on target.
- Possession: 55.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 25% of matches (100% away).
- Both teams scored in 75% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.0 a match.
- Discipline: 2.3 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.87.
Crystal Palace vs Real Sociedad: season averages side by side
| Crystal Palace | Per match this season | Real Sociedad |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Matches | 4 |
| 2.3 | Goals scored | 2.3 |
| 1.5 | Goals conceded | 1.0 |
| 1.62 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.42 |
| 12.3 | Shots | 12.3 |
| 4.5 | On target | 4.5 |
| 49.8 | Possession % | 55.3 |
| 25% | Clean sheets % | 25% |
| 75% | Both teams scored % | 75% |
| 4.3 | Corners | 5.0 |
| 2.3 | Yellow cards | 2.3 |
| 6.88 | Average rating | 6.87 |
Players to watch
Crystal Palace
- Yéremy Pino LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 65 · Creator, Big-chance creator (top 20% of his position)
- Jaydee Canvot CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 60 · Ball-winner, Reads the game (top 2% of his position)
Real Sociedad
- Jon Martín Vicente CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 71 · Duel winner, Dominant in the air (top 6% of his position)
- Jon Gorrotxategi DMF · Ball-winner · Moneyball Score 70 · Reads the game, Blocks shots (top 12% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Orri Óskarsson
Orri Óskarsson, 22 · Real Sociedad · CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 70
Orri Óskarsson, 22, plays as a centre-forward for Real Sociedad in La Liga. Strongest for his role in expected goals and shot quality (xG per shot). Weakest in big chances missed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 70
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 60
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Expected goals | 0.69 / 90 | 94% |
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.19 xG/shot | 92% |
| Goals, luck taken out | 0.67 / 90 | 92% |
| Shots | 3.63 / 90 | 82% |
| Aerial duels won | 1.97 / 90 | 76% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★★½ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★★★ Complete forward Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Gets into scoring positions, Takes high-quality shots, Scores and makes the chances to keep scoring.
- What Orri Óskarsson is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Orri Óskarsson's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Crystal Palace vs Real Sociedad prediction
Real Sociedad should have more of the ball, with Crystal Palace likely to sit in a compact block and look to break. Moneyball's model expects about 3.6 goals - 1.59 for Crystal Palace and 2.01 for Real Sociedad - with over 2.5 goals at 70% and both teams scoring at 69%. Real Sociedad have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Crystal Palace 1-3 Real Sociedad
Crystal Palace vs Real Sociedad: what the numbers say
- 1. Real Sociedad unbeaten (win or draw) 70% between them
- 2. 3 or more goals 70% by the model, 3.60 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 69% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 5.5 cards a match between them
- 5. 9 or more corners 9.3 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
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Crystal Palace vs Real Sociedad: questions and answers
When is Crystal Palace vs Real Sociedad?
Crystal Palace vs Real Sociedad is on Thursday 26 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC, in Europa League Gameweek 5.
Where is Crystal Palace vs Real Sociedad played?
At Selhurst Park, London, Crystal Palace's home ground.
Who will win Crystal Palace vs Real Sociedad?
Real Sociedad are the favourites: Crystal Palace 30%, draw 23%, Real Sociedad 47%. Our prediction is Crystal Palace 1-3 Real Sociedad.
Who is the player to watch in Crystal Palace vs Real Sociedad?
Orri Óskarsson of Real Sociedad: a poacher with a Moneyball Score of 70 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Crystal Palace vs Real Sociedad?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.6 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 70%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.