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Lugano vs Crvena Zvezda: Prediction, Stats and Preview

Europa Conference League · Thursday 15 October 2026 · 16:45 UTC · updated 2026-10-09

Lugano host Crvena Zvezda in the Europa Conference League on Thursday 15 October 2026. On this season's numbers, Moneyball's model makes Lugano favourites at 45%, puts the draw at 26% and expects about 2.9 goals.

Moneyball's estimate

Lugano45%fair odds 2.20
Draw26%fair odds 3.89
Crvena Zvezda29%fair odds 3.46

From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (6 and 4 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.

Season statistics

LuganoPer match this seasonCrvena Zvezda
6Matches4
2.2Goals scored2.3
0.8Goals conceded0.8
2.38Expected goals (xG)–
17.5Shots17.3
6.0On target9.5
57.7Possession %65.3
33%Clean sheets %50%
67%Both teams scored %0%
5.7Corners6.0
1.0Yellow cards1.5
7.03Average rating6.45

Averages per match from Sportmonks; Crvena Zvezda in its domestic league.

The full analysis

Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.

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Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.