Estrela Amadora vs Benfica Prediction and Betting Tips | Liga Portugal Gameweek 11
Liga Portugal · Sunday 8 November 2026 · 20:30 UTC · Estádio José Gomes, Amadora · updated 2026-10-25
Estrela Amadora welcome Benfica to Estádio José Gomes in Amadora in Liga Portugal Gameweek 11 action on Sunday 8 November 2026, kick-off 20:30 UTC.
Estrela Amadora have played 9 matches in Liga Portugal this season, scoring 1.6 and conceding 1.9 goals a game and winning 22% of them. At home they average 1.2 goals scored and 1.8 conceded over 5 matches, with a 50% win rate. Benfica have played 8 matches in Liga Portugal this season, scoring 3.0 and conceding 0.9 goals a game and winning 75% of them. Away from home they average 3.8 goals scored and 0.8 conceded over 4 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Benfica are clear favourites at 61%, with the draw at 20% and Estrela Amadora at 18%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Estrela Amadora 1.19, Benfica 2.28.
- Over 2.5 goals: 67% · both teams to score: 63%.
- Most likely score: 1–2 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (9 and 8 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Estrela Amadora: form and key numbers
In style Estrela Amadora keep the ball, press high, play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.52 a match created, 1.33 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.4).
- Shots: 13.4 a match, 4.3 on target.
- Possession: 52.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 67% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.6 a match.
- Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.77.
Benfica: form and key numbers
In style Benfica keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 2.32 a match created, 0.73 conceded (goals minus xG: +5.4).
- Shots: 19.6 a match, 6.9 on target.
- Possession: 63.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 50% of matches (75% away).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 7.8 a match.
- Discipline: 1.9 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.05.
Estrela Amadora vs Benfica: season averages side by side
| Estrela Amadora | Per match this season | Benfica |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Matches | 8 |
| 1.6 | Goals scored | 3.0 |
| 1.9 | Goals conceded | 0.9 |
| 1.52 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.32 |
| 1.33 | xG conceded | 0.73 |
| 13.4 | Shots | 19.6 |
| 4.3 | On target | 6.9 |
| 52.4 | Possession % | 63.4 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 50% |
| 67% | Both teams scored % | 50% |
| 4.6 | Corners | 7.8 |
| 2.2 | Yellow cards | 1.9 |
| 6.77 | Average rating | 7.05 |
Players to watch
Estrela Amadora
- Abraham Marcus RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 53 · Big-chance creator, Creator (top 7% of his position)
- Ianis Stoica LWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 45 · Press-resistant, Gets into scoring positions (top 12% of his position)
Benfica
- Vangelis Pavlidis CF · Complete forward · Moneyball Score 74 · Takes high-quality shots, Chance creator (top 10% of his position)
- Andreas Schjelderup LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 68 · Crosser, Chance creator (top 1% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Gianluca Prestianni
Gianluca Prestianni, 20 · Benfica · RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 83
Gianluca Prestianni, 20, plays as a winger for Benfica in Liga Portugal. Strongest for his role in shots and fouls won. Weakest in dispossessed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LW · Winger Natural, 83
- RW · Winger Natural, 83
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Accomplished, 77
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shots | 4.21 / 90 | 94% |
| Fouls won | 3.40 / 90 | 94% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.42 / 90 | 93% |
| Big chances created | 0.82 / 90 | 93% |
| Key passes | 2.99 / 90 | 88% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★★½ Inside forward Winger
- ★★★★ Dribbling playmaker Attacking midfielder
Scout's notes: High shot volume, Draws fouls, Creator.
- What Gianluca Prestianni is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Gianluca Prestianni's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Estrela Amadora vs Benfica prediction
Benfica should have more of the ball; Estrela Amadora work the ball wide and cross; Benfica are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 3.5 goals - 1.19 for Estrela Amadora and 2.28 for Benfica - with over 2.5 goals at 67% and both teams scoring at 63%. Benfica have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Estrela Amadora 1-2 Benfica
Estrela Amadora vs Benfica betting tips
- Tip 1: Benfica to win 61% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 67% by the model, 3.46 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 63% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 5.1 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 12.3 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Liga Portugal previews
- Estoril vs Moreirense Sunday 25 October 2026
- Rio Ave vs Famalicão Sunday 25 October 2026
- Nacional vs Sporting Braga Sunday 25 October 2026
- Sporting CP vs Academico Viseu Sunday 25 October 2026
- Santa Clara vs Benfica Monday 26 October 2026
- Casa Pia vs Sporting CP Friday 30 October 2026
- Moreirense vs Estrela Amadora Saturday 31 October 2026
- Porto vs Estoril Saturday 31 October 2026
Estrela Amadora vs Benfica: questions and answers
When is Estrela Amadora vs Benfica?
Estrela Amadora vs Benfica is on Sunday 8 November 2026, kick-off 20:30 UTC, in Liga Portugal Gameweek 11.
Where is Estrela Amadora vs Benfica played?
At Estádio José Gomes, Amadora, Estrela Amadora's home ground.
Who will win Estrela Amadora vs Benfica?
Benfica are the favourites: Estrela Amadora 18%, draw 20%, Benfica 61%. Our prediction is Estrela Amadora 1-2 Benfica.
Who is the player to watch in Estrela Amadora vs Benfica?
Gianluca Prestianni of Benfica: a creative winger with a Moneyball Score of 83 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Estrela Amadora vs Benfica?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.5 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 67%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.