Famalicão vs Arouca Prediction and Betting Tips | Liga Portugal Gameweek 11
Liga Portugal · Friday 6 November 2026 · 20:45 UTC · Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho, Vila Nova de Famalicão · updated 2026-10-25
Famalicão welcome Arouca to Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho in Vila Nova de Famalicão in Liga Portugal Gameweek 11 action on Friday 6 November 2026, kick-off 20:45 UTC.
Famalicão have played 8 matches in Liga Portugal this season, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.4 goals a game and winning 13% of them. At home they average 0.8 goals scored and 1.8 conceded over 4 matches, with a 0% win rate. Arouca have played 9 matches in Liga Portugal this season, scoring 1.3 and conceding 0.8 goals a game and winning 56% of them. Away from home they average 0.8 goals scored and 0.8 conceded over 5 matches, with a 40% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Famalicão 32%, the draw 30%, Arouca 38%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Famalicão 1.05, Arouca 1.17.
- Over 2.5 goals: 38% · both teams to score: 46%.
- Most likely score: 0–2 (7%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (8 and 9 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Famalicão: form and key numbers
In style Famalicão keep the ball, take players on.
- Expected goals: 0.84 a match created, 1.42 conceded (goals minus xG: +3.3).
- Shots: 10.0 a match, 3.3 on target.
- Possession: 55.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 25% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 63% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.8 a match.
- Discipline: 2.3 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.76.
Arouca: form and key numbers
In style Arouca cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.12 a match created, 1.29 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.9).
- Shots: 11.2 a match, 3.8 on target.
- Possession: 51.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 56% of matches (60% away).
- Both teams scored in 33% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.1 a match.
- Discipline: 2.7 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.84.
Famalicão vs Arouca: season averages side by side
| Famalicão | Per match this season | Arouca |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Matches | 9 |
| 1.3 | Goals scored | 1.3 |
| 1.4 | Goals conceded | 0.8 |
| 0.84 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.12 |
| 1.42 | xG conceded | 1.29 |
| 10.0 | Shots | 11.2 |
| 3.3 | On target | 3.8 |
| 55.3 | Possession % | 51.4 |
| 25% | Clean sheets % | 56% |
| 63% | Both teams scored % | 33% |
| 5.8 | Corners | 3.1 |
| 2.3 | Yellow cards | 2.7 |
| 6.76 | Average rating | 6.84 |
Players to watch
Famalicão
- Marcos Peña CMF · Ball-winning midfielder · Moneyball Score 51 · Ball-winner, Secure passer (top 11% of his position)
- Léo Realpe CB · Ball-playing centre-back · Moneyball Score 47 · Secure passer, Disciplined (top 19% of his position)
Arouca
- Ignacio de Arruabarrena GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 52 · Dominant in the air, Secure passer (top 24% of his position)
- José Fontán CB · Ball-playing centre-back · Moneyball Score 49 · Blocks shots, Long passer (top 5% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Taichi Fukui
Taichi Fukui, 22 · Arouca · CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 53
Taichi Fukui, 22, plays as a central midfielder for Arouca in Liga Portugal. Strongest for his role in interceptions and expected assists (est.). Weakest in expected goals. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every central midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average central midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CM · Central midfielder Natural, 53
- DM · Defensive midfielder Natural, 46
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Interceptions | 1.97 / 90 | 91% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.21 / 90 | 76% |
| Key passes | 1.74 / 90 | 67% |
| Pass accuracy | 88% | 66% |
| Dispossessed | 0.58 / 90 | 59% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★ Playmaker Central midfielder
- ★★★ Ball-winning midfielder Central midfielder
- ★★ Ball-winner Defensive midfielder
Scout's notes: Reads the game.
- What Taichi Fukui is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Taichi Fukui's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Famalicão vs Arouca prediction
Famalicão should have more of the ball; Famalicão like to take players on; Arouca work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 2.2 goals - 1.05 for Famalicão and 1.17 for Arouca - with over 2.5 goals at 38% and both teams scoring at 46%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Famalicão 1-1 Arouca
Famalicão vs Arouca betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 38%
- Tip 2: Under 2.5 goals 62% by the model, 2.23 goals expected
- Tip 3: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 6.9 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Over 8.5 corners 8.9 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Liga Portugal previews
- Estoril vs Moreirense Sunday 25 October 2026
- Rio Ave vs Famalicão Sunday 25 October 2026
- Nacional vs Sporting Braga Sunday 25 October 2026
- Sporting CP vs Academico Viseu Sunday 25 October 2026
- Santa Clara vs Benfica Monday 26 October 2026
- Casa Pia vs Sporting CP Friday 30 October 2026
- Moreirense vs Estrela Amadora Saturday 31 October 2026
- Porto vs Estoril Saturday 31 October 2026
Famalicão vs Arouca: questions and answers
When is Famalicão vs Arouca?
Famalicão vs Arouca is on Friday 6 November 2026, kick-off 20:45 UTC, in Liga Portugal Gameweek 11.
Where is Famalicão vs Arouca played?
At Estádio Municipal 22 de Junho, Vila Nova de Famalicão, Famalicão's home ground.
Who will win Famalicão vs Arouca?
It is close: Famalicão 32%, draw 30%, Arouca 38%. Our prediction is Famalicão 1-1 Arouca.
Who is the player to watch in Famalicão vs Arouca?
Taichi Fukui of Arouca: a playmaker with a Moneyball Score of 53 against every central midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Famalicão vs Arouca?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.2 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 38%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.