FC Bayern München vs RB Leipzig: Prediction, Stats and Preview
Bundesliga · Saturday 17 October 2026 · 16:30 UTC · Allianz Arena, Munich · updated 2026-10-09
FC Bayern München host RB Leipzig in the Bundesliga on Saturday 17 October 2026 at Allianz Arena. On this season's numbers, Moneyball's model makes FC Bayern München favourites at 59%, puts the draw at 21% and expects about 3.4 goals.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: FC Bayern München 2.19, RB Leipzig 1.22.
- Over 2.5 goals: 66% · both teams to score: 63%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (4 and 4 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
The difference-maker: Michael Olise
Michael Olise, 24 · FC Bayern München · RWF · Inside forward
Moneyball Scout picks Michael Olise as the player most likely to decide this match, with a Moneyball Score of 89 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues (attacking 89, defensive 53).
- Expected assists (est.): 0.46 per 90 minutes, better than 95% of wingers
- Shots: 5.05 per 90 minutes, better than 95% of wingers
- Accurate crosses: 2.08 per 90 minutes, better than 94% of wingers
RB Leipzig concede only 1.3 goals a match this season (1.11 expected): breaking that defence is the job of a inside forward like Michael Olise.
Scout's notes: Creator, High shot volume, Crosser.
What he is worth on the market, how many league points he would add to another club and who could replace him: Moneyball Scouting Players Research.
Season statistics
| FC Bayern München | Per match this season | RB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Matches | 4 |
| 3.5 | Goals scored | 2.3 |
| 0.5 | Goals conceded | 1.3 |
| 2.51 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.09 |
| 0.69 | xG conceded | 1.11 |
| 21.8 | Shots | 18.8 |
| 8.8 | On target | 6.3 |
| 70.5 | Possession % | 57.8 |
| 50% | Clean sheets % | 50% |
| 50% | Both teams scored % | 25% |
| 9.5 | Corners | 6.8 |
| 1.0 | Yellow cards | 1.3 |
| 7.25 | Average rating | 6.99 |
Averages per match from Sportmonks.
Players to watch
FC Bayern München
- Michael Olise midfielder · rating 8.40 · 4 apps
- Joshua Kimmich midfielder · rating 8.02 · 4 apps
- Harry Kane forward · rating 7.76 · 4 apps
RB Leipzig
- Antonio Nusa midfielder · rating 7.79 · 4 apps
- Willi Orbán defender · rating 7.42 · 4 apps
- Ridle Baku defender · rating 7.25 · 4 apps
The best-rated players of each side this season, with 180 minutes or more.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Bundesliga previews
- Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen Friday 9 October 2026
- Paderborn vs VfB Stuttgart Saturday 10 October 2026
- RB Leipzig vs Eintracht Frankfurt Saturday 10 October 2026
- FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach Sunday 11 October 2026
- SC Freiburg vs Schalke 04 Sunday 11 October 2026
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Köln Friday 16 October 2026
- Elversberg vs FC Augsburg Saturday 17 October 2026
- Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05 Saturday 17 October 2026
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.