FC Dallas vs Columbus Crew Prediction and Betting Tips
Major League Soccer · Thursday 29 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-26
FC Dallas welcome Columbus Crew to Toyota Stadium in Frisco in Major League Soccer action on Thursday 29 October 2026.
FC Dallas have played 31 matches in Major League Soccer this season, scoring 1.9 and conceding 1.5 goals a game and winning 48% of them. At home they average 1.9 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 15 matches, with a 53% win rate. Columbus Crew have played 31 matches in Major League Soccer this season, scoring 1.6 and conceding 1.6 goals a game and winning 35% of them. Away from home they average 1.6 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 15 matches, with a 27% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, FC Dallas are narrow favourites at 44%, with the draw at 26% and Columbus Crew at 30%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (12.2% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is FC Dallas -0.5 at 1.95, Columbus Crew at 1.78. The main goals line is 3: over 1.74, under 1.97, which gives over 53%.
FC Dallas: form and key numbers
In style FC Dallas are happy without the ball.
- Expected goals: 1.56 a match created, 1.56 conceded (goals minus xG: +9.6).
- Shots: 12.4 a match, 4.7 on target.
- Possession: 42.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 26% of matches (63% at home).
- Both teams scored in 61% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.5 a match.
- Discipline: 2.3 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.84.
Columbus Crew: form and key numbers
In style Columbus Crew keep the ball.
- Expected goals: 1.49 a match created, 1.42 conceded (goals minus xG: +3.7).
- Shots: 12.7 a match, 4.6 on target.
- Possession: 55.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 19% of matches (33% away).
- Both teams scored in 71% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.3 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.83.
FC Dallas vs Columbus Crew: season averages side by side
| FC Dallas | Per match | Columbus Crew |
|---|---|---|
| 1.56 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.49 |
| 1.56 | xG conceded | 1.42 |
| 1.87 | Goals | 1.61 |
| 12.4 | Shots | 12.7 |
| 4.7 | Shots on target | 4.6 |
| 1.6 | Big chances missed | 1.3 |
| 38.2 | Pressure share % | 54.4 |
| 15.2 | Tackles | 15.9 |
| 13.1 | Fouls | 10.4 |
| 2.3 | Yellow cards | 1.8 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 31 and 31 measured matches.
Players to watch
FC Dallas
- Santiago Moreno RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 44 · Big-chance creator, Creator (top 11% of his position)
- Sam Sarver RWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 36 · Draws fouls, Gets into scoring positions (top 7% of his position)
Columbus Crew
- Dylan Chambost CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 50 · Long passer, Secure passer (top 5% of his position)
- Santiago Rodríguez AMF · Dribbling playmaker · Moneyball Score 38 · Draws fouls, Gets into scoring positions (top 5% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Petar Musa
Petar Musa, 28 · Dallas · CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 52
Petar Musa, 28, plays as a centre-forward for Dallas in the MLS. Strongest for his role in shot quality (xG per shot) and shots on target. Weakest in big chances missed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 52
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 46
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.20 xG/shot | 90% |
| Shots on target | 52% | 84% |
| Expected goals | 0.78 / 90 | 83% |
| Goals | 0.76 / 90 | 72% |
| Shots | 3.99 / 90 | 58% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★★ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★★★ Complete forward Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Takes high-quality shots, Accurate shooter, Gets into scoring positions.
- What Petar Musa is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Petar Musa's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
FC Dallas vs Columbus Crew prediction
Columbus Crew should have more of the ball, with FC Dallas likely to sit in a compact block and look to break. Moneyball's model expects about 3.6 goals - 2.02 for FC Dallas and 1.56 for Columbus Crew - with over 2.5 goals at 69% and both teams scoring at 69%. FC Dallas have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: FC Dallas 3-1 Columbus Crew
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
FC Dallas vs Columbus Crew betting tips
- Tip 1: FC Dallas win or draw (double chance) 70% between them
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 69% by the model, 3.58 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 69% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 7.1 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 9.8 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
Open FC Dallas vs Columbus Crew in the Match Centre Follow it live
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FC Dallas vs Columbus Crew: questions and answers
When is FC Dallas vs Columbus Crew?
FC Dallas vs Columbus Crew is on Thursday 29 October 2026, in Major League Soccer.
Where is FC Dallas vs Columbus Crew played?
At Toyota Stadium, Frisco, FC Dallas's home ground.
Who will win FC Dallas vs Columbus Crew?
FC Dallas are the favourites: FC Dallas 44%, draw 26%, Columbus Crew 30%. Our prediction is FC Dallas 3-1 Columbus Crew.
Who is the player to watch in FC Dallas vs Columbus Crew?
Petar Musa of Dallas: a poacher with a Moneyball Score of 52 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in FC Dallas vs Columbus Crew?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.6 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 69%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.