FC Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund: Prediction, Stats and Preview
Bundesliga · Saturday 17 October 2026 · 13:30 UTC · Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Berlin · updated 2026-10-09
FC Union Berlin host Borussia Dortmund in the Bundesliga on Saturday 17 October 2026 at Stadion An der Alten Försterei. On this season's numbers, Moneyball's model makes Borussia Dortmund clear favourites at 65%, puts the draw at 19% and expects about 3.6 goals.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: FC Union Berlin 1.15, Borussia Dortmund 2.45.
- Over 2.5 goals: 70% · both teams to score: 63%.
- Most likely score: 1–2 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (4 and 4 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
The difference-maker: Serhou Guirassy
Serhou Guirassy, 30 · Borussia Dortmund · CF · Complete forward
Moneyball Scout picks Serhou Guirassy as the player most likely to decide this match, with a Moneyball Score of 61 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues (attacking 69, defensive 39).
- Key passes: 1.85 per 90 minutes, better than 86% of centre-forwards
- Shots on target: 54%, better than 74% of centre-forwards
- Shots: 3.43 per 90 minutes, better than 72% of centre-forwards
FC Union Berlin concede 4.3 goals a match this season (2.48 expected), more than the league's average: the space a complete forward like Serhou Guirassy lives on.
Scout's notes: Chance creator.
What he is worth on the market, how many league points he would add to another club and who could replace him: Moneyball Scouting Players Research.
Season statistics
| FC Union Berlin | Per match this season | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Matches | 4 |
| 1.0 | Goals scored | 2.3 |
| 4.3 | Goals conceded | 0.5 |
| 1.26 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.72 |
| 2.48 | xG conceded | 0.96 |
| 11.8 | Shots | 14.5 |
| 5.0 | On target | 5.3 |
| 45.8 | Possession % | 48.8 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 75% |
| 50% | Both teams scored % | 25% |
| 3.0 | Corners | 3.8 |
| 2.5 | Yellow cards | 2.5 |
| 6.57 | Average rating | 7.01 |
Averages per match from Sportmonks.
Players to watch
FC Union Berlin
- Josip Juranovic defender · rating 7.08 · 3 apps
- Leopold Querfeld defender · rating 7.03 · 3 apps
- Frederik Rönnow goalkeeper · rating 6.95 · 3 apps
Borussia Dortmund
- Felix Nmecha midfielder · rating 7.52 · 4 apps
- Serhou Guirassy forward · rating 7.38 · 4 apps
- Waldemar Anton defender · rating 7.31 · 4 apps
The best-rated players of each side this season, with 180 minutes or more.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Bundesliga previews
- Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen Friday 9 October 2026
- Paderborn vs VfB Stuttgart Saturday 10 October 2026
- RB Leipzig vs Eintracht Frankfurt Saturday 10 October 2026
- FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach Sunday 11 October 2026
- SC Freiburg vs Schalke 04 Sunday 11 October 2026
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Köln Friday 16 October 2026
- Elversberg vs FC Augsburg Saturday 17 October 2026
- Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05 Saturday 17 October 2026
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.