FC Union Berlin vs FC Köln Prediction and Betting Tips | Bundesliga Gameweek 8
Bundesliga · Sunday 1 November 2026 · 14:30 UTC · Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Berlin · updated 2026-10-18
FC Union Berlin welcome FC Köln to Stadion An der Alten Försterei in Berlin in Bundesliga Gameweek 8 action on Sunday 1 November 2026, kick-off 14:30 UTC.
FC Union Berlin have played 6 matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 0.8 and conceding 2.8 goals a game and winning 17% of them. At home they average 1.3 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over 4 matches, with a 100% win rate. FC Köln have played 6 matches in the Bundesliga this season, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.8 goals a game and winning 33% of them. Away from home they average 0.7 goals scored and 2.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, FC Köln are narrow favourites at 43%, with the draw at 24% and FC Union Berlin at 33%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: FC Union Berlin 1.51, FC Köln 1.76.
- Over 2.5 goals: 63% · both teams to score: 65%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (11%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (6 and 6 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
FC Union Berlin: form and key numbers
In style FC Union Berlin are happy without the ball, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.26 a match created, 1.95 conceded (goals minus xG: -2.6).
- Shots: 12.8 a match, 4.3 on target.
- Possession: 43.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 33% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 33% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.0 a match.
- Discipline: 2.5 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.68.
FC Köln: form and key numbers
In style FC Köln are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.72 a match created, 1.89 conceded (goals minus xG: -2.3).
- Shots: 16.0 a match, 5.0 on target.
- Possession: 48.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 83% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.0 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.79.
FC Union Berlin vs FC Köln: season averages side by side
| FC Union Berlin | Per match this season | FC Köln |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Matches | 6 |
| 0.8 | Goals scored | 1.3 |
| 2.8 | Goals conceded | 1.8 |
| 1.26 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.72 |
| 1.95 | xG conceded | 1.89 |
| 12.8 | Shots | 16.0 |
| 4.3 | On target | 5.0 |
| 43.8 | Possession % | 48.3 |
| 33% | Clean sheets % | 0% |
| 33% | Both teams scored % | 83% |
| 4.0 | Corners | 6.0 |
| 2.5 | Yellow cards | 1.8 |
| 6.68 | Average rating | 6.79 |
Players to watch
FC Union Berlin
- Tom Alexander Rothe LB · Defensive full-back · Moneyball Score 61 · Ball-winner, Duel winner (top 9% of his position)
- Felix Uduokhai CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 61 · Blocks shots, Box defender (top 2% of his position)
FC Köln
- Jahmai Simpson-Pusey CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 64 · Hard to dribble past, Disciplined (top 2% of his position)
- Marvin Schwäbe GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 59 · Long passer, Shot-stopper (top 7% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Leopold Querfeld
Leopold Querfeld, 22 · FC Union Berlin · CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 69
Leopold Querfeld, 22, plays as a centre-back for FC Union Berlin in the Bundesliga. Strongest for his role in clearances and aerial duels won. Weakest in pass accuracy. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CB · Centre-back Natural, 69
- DM · Defensive midfielder Competent, 62
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Clearances | 9.67 / 90 | 95% |
| Aerial duels won | 4.67 / 90 | 94% |
| Duels won | 7.33 / 90 | 90% |
| Long balls | 5.00 / 90 | 89% |
| Blocked shots | 1.33 / 90 | 82% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Box defender Centre-back
- ★★★★½ Stopper Centre-back
- ★★★★ Anchor Defensive midfielder
Scout's notes: Box defender, Dominant in the air, Duel winner.
- What Leopold Querfeld is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Leopold Querfeld's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
FC Union Berlin vs FC Köln prediction
FC Köln should have more of the ball; both sides are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 3.3 goals - 1.51 for FC Union Berlin and 1.76 for FC Köln - with over 2.5 goals at 63% and both teams scoring at 65%. FC Köln have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: FC Union Berlin 1-2 FC Köln
FC Union Berlin vs FC Köln betting tips
- Tip 1: FC Köln win or draw (double chance) 67% between them
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 63% by the model, 3.27 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 65% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 4.3 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 10.0 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Bundesliga previews
- VfB Stuttgart vs Borussia Mönchengladbach Friday 23 October 2026
- Paderborn vs Hamburger SV Saturday 24 October 2026
- FC Köln vs Schalke 04 Saturday 24 October 2026
- FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen Saturday 24 October 2026
- FC Augsburg vs FC Union Berlin Saturday 24 October 2026
- RB Leipzig vs Elversberg Saturday 24 October 2026
- Borussia Dortmund vs Eintracht Frankfurt Saturday 24 October 2026
- TSG Hoffenheim vs Bayer 04 Leverkusen Sunday 25 October 2026
FC Union Berlin vs FC Köln: questions and answers
When is FC Union Berlin vs FC Köln?
FC Union Berlin vs FC Köln is on Sunday 1 November 2026, kick-off 14:30 UTC, in Bundesliga Gameweek 8.
Where is FC Union Berlin vs FC Köln played?
At Stadion An der Alten Försterei, Berlin, FC Union Berlin's home ground.
Who will win FC Union Berlin vs FC Köln?
FC Köln are the favourites: FC Union Berlin 33%, draw 24%, FC Köln 43%. Our prediction is FC Union Berlin 1-2 FC Köln.
Who is the player to watch in FC Union Berlin vs FC Köln?
Leopold Querfeld of FC Union Berlin: a box defender with a Moneyball Score of 69 against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in FC Union Berlin vs FC Köln?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 63%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.