Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe Prediction and Betting Tips | Süper Lig Gameweek 9
Süper Lig · Monday 26 October 2026 · 18:30 UTC · Rams Park, İstanbul · updated 2026-10-25
Galatasaray welcome Fenerbahçe to Rams Park in İstanbul in Süper Lig Gameweek 9 action on Monday 26 October 2026, kick-off 18:30 UTC.
Galatasaray have played 8 matches in Süper Lig this season, scoring 2.1 and conceding 1.4 goals a game and winning 75% of them. At home they average 2.3 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 4 matches, with a 50% win rate. Fenerbahçe have played 8 matches in Süper Lig this season, scoring 2.8 and conceding 0.8 goals a game and winning 63% of them. Away from home they average 1.5 goals scored and 0.5 conceded over 4 matches, with a 40% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Fenerbahçe are narrow favourites at 43%, with the draw at 24% and Galatasaray at 33%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Galatasaray 1.52, Fenerbahçe 1.78.
- Over 2.5 goals: 64% · both teams to score: 66%.
- Most likely score: 1–2 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (8 and 8 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Galatasaray: form and key numbers
In style Galatasaray keep the ball, press high, play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 2.13 a match created, 0.99 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.1).
- Shots: 22.4 a match, 7.6 on target.
- Possession: 60.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 38% of matches (33% at home).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 7.5 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.94.
Fenerbahçe: form and key numbers
In style Fenerbahçe keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 2.52 a match created, 0.97 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.9).
- Shots: 18.4 a match, 7.3 on target.
- Possession: 55.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 63% of matches (60% away).
- Both teams scored in 38% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.3 a match.
- Discipline: 1.4 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.05.
Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe: season averages side by side
| Galatasaray | Per match this season | Fenerbahçe |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Matches | 8 |
| 2.1 | Goals scored | 2.8 |
| 1.4 | Goals conceded | 0.8 |
| 2.13 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.52 |
| 0.99 | xG conceded | 0.97 |
| 22.4 | Shots | 18.4 |
| 7.6 | On target | 7.3 |
| 60.3 | Possession % | 55.5 |
| 38% | Clean sheets % | 63% |
| 50% | Both teams scored % | 38% |
| 7.5 | Corners | 6.3 |
| 1.8 | Yellow cards | 1.4 |
| 6.94 | Average rating | 7.05 |
Players to watch
Galatasaray
- Yunus Akgün RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 45 · Big-chance creator, Creator (top 7% of his position)
- Rafael Leão LWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 36 · Dribbler, High shot volume (top 18% of his position)
Fenerbahçe
- Vedat Muriqi CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 48 · Clinical finisher, Accurate shooter (top 12% of his position)
- Mason Greenwood RWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 46 · Gets into scoring positions, High shot volume (top 4% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Victor Osimhen
Victor Osimhen, 27 · Galatasaray · CF · Complete forward · Moneyball Score 54
Victor Osimhen, 27, plays as a centre-forward for Galatasaray in the Süper Lig. Strongest for his role in shots and expected goals. Weakest in big chances missed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 54
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 51
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shots | 9.98 / 90 | 100% |
| Expected goals | 1.19 / 90 | 90% |
| Aerial duels won | 4.88 / 90 | 82% |
| Goals | 1.11 / 90 | 75% |
| Key passes | 1.77 / 90 | 59% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★★ Complete forward Centre-forward
- ★★★ Poacher Centre-forward
Scout's notes: High shot volume, Gets into scoring positions, Dominant in the air.
- What Victor Osimhen is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Victor Osimhen's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe prediction
Galatasaray should have more of the ball; both work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 3.3 goals - 1.52 for Galatasaray and 1.78 for Fenerbahçe - with over 2.5 goals at 64% and both teams scoring at 66%. Fenerbahçe have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Galatasaray 1-2 Fenerbahçe
Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe betting tips
- Tip 1: Fenerbahçe win or draw (double chance) 67% between them
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 64% by the model, 3.30 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 66% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 5.1 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 13.8 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Süper Lig previews
- Göztepe vs Çorum FK Sunday 25 October 2026
- Beşiktaş vs İstanbul Başakşehir Monday 26 October 2026
- Rizespor vs Trabzonspor Monday 26 October 2026
- Konyaspor vs Galatasaray Friday 30 October 2026
- Erzurumspor FK vs Çorum FK Saturday 31 October 2026
- Kocaelispor vs Rizespor Saturday 31 October 2026
- Fenerbahçe vs Göztepe Saturday 31 October 2026
- Amed SK vs Eyüpspor Sunday 1 November 2026
Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe: questions and answers
When is Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe?
Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe is on Monday 26 October 2026, kick-off 18:30 UTC, in Süper Lig Gameweek 9.
Where is Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe played?
At Rams Park, İstanbul, Galatasaray's home ground.
Who will win Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe?
Fenerbahçe are the favourites: Galatasaray 33%, draw 24%, Fenerbahçe 43%. Our prediction is Galatasaray 1-2 Fenerbahçe.
Who is the player to watch in Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe?
Victor Osimhen of Galatasaray: a complete forward with a Moneyball Score of 54 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Galatasaray vs Fenerbahçe?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 64%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.