Gil Vicente vs Estoril Prediction and Stats | Liga Portugal Gameweek 12
Liga Portugal · Sunday 29 November 2026 · 18:00 UTC · Estádio Cidade de Barcelos, Barcelos · updated 2026-11-15
Gil Vicente welcome Estoril to Estádio Cidade de Barcelos in Barcelos in Liga Portugal Gameweek 12 action on Sunday 29 November 2026, kick-off 18:00 UTC.
Gil Vicente have played 11 matches in Liga Portugal this season, scoring 0.9 and conceding 0.7 goals a game and winning 45% of them. At home they average 0.7 goals scored and 0.5 conceded over 6 matches, with a 40% win rate. Estoril have played 10 matches in Liga Portugal this season, scoring 0.5 and conceding 1.9 goals a game and winning 0% of them. Away from home they average 0.4 goals scored and 2.2 conceded over 5 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Gil Vicente are clear favourites at 62%, with the draw at 25% and Estoril at 13%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Gil Vicente 1.63, Estoril 0.61.
- Over 2.5 goals: 39% · both teams to score: 37%.
- Most likely score: 2–0 (14%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (11 and 10 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Gil Vicente: form and key numbers
In style Gil Vicente cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.32 a match created, 0.89 conceded (goals minus xG: -4.5).
- Shots: 13.4 a match, 3.4 on target.
- Possession: 50.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 45% of matches (60% at home).
- Both teams scored in 36% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.6 a match.
- Discipline: 1.9 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.81.
Estoril: form and key numbers
In style Estoril are happy without the ball, play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.04 a match created, 1.70 conceded (goals minus xG: -5.4).
- Shots: 13.7 a match, 4.7 on target.
- Possession: 46.2% on average.
- Clean sheets: 10% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.5 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.69.
Gil Vicente vs Estoril: season averages side by side
| Gil Vicente | Per match this season | Estoril |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Matches | 10 |
| 0.9 | Goals scored | 0.5 |
| 0.7 | Goals conceded | 1.9 |
| 1.32 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.04 |
| 0.89 | xG conceded | 1.70 |
| 13.4 | Shots | 13.7 |
| 3.4 | On target | 4.7 |
| 50.7 | Possession % | 46.2 |
| 45% | Clean sheets % | 10% |
| 36% | Both teams scored % | 50% |
| 3.6 | Corners | 4.5 |
| 1.9 | Yellow cards | 2.0 |
| 6.81 | Average rating | 6.69 |
Players to watch
Gil Vicente
- Walace França CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 52 · Dominant in the air, Takes high-quality shots (top 15% of his position)
- Zé Carlos CMF · Ball-winning midfielder · Moneyball Score 48 · Reads the game, Press-resistant (top 3% of his position)
Estoril
- Jordan Holsgrove DMF · Deep-lying playmaker · Moneyball Score 47 · Long passer, Press-resistant (top 5% of his position)
- Ferro CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 46 · Reads the game, Ball-winner (top 15% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Ismael Sierra
Ismael Sierra, 23 · Estoril · CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 47
Ismael Sierra, 23, plays as a centre-back for Estoril in Liga Portugal. Strongest for his role in interceptions and dribbled past. Weakest in tackles. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CB · Centre-back Natural, 47
- DM · Defensive midfielder Competent, 35
- LB · Full-back Competent, 28
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Interceptions | 2.43 / 90 | 85% |
| Dribbled past | 0.14 / 90 | 76% |
| Long balls | 4.14 / 90 | 76% |
| Aerial duels won | 3.43 / 90 | 75% |
| Clearances | 6.86 / 90 | 61% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Anchor Defensive midfielder
- ★★★★ Inverted full-back Full-back
- ★★★ Box defender Centre-back
Scout's notes: Reads the game.
- What Ismael Sierra is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Ismael Sierra's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Gil Vicente vs Estoril prediction
Gil Vicente should have more of the ball, with Estoril likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Gil Vicente work the ball wide and cross; Estoril go long and direct. Moneyball's model expects about 2.2 goals - 1.63 for Gil Vicente and 0.61 for Estoril - with over 2.5 goals at 39% and both teams scoring at 37%. Gil Vicente have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Gil Vicente 2-0 Estoril
Gil Vicente vs Estoril: what the numbers say
- 1. Gil Vicente win, the likeliest result 62% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- 2. 2 goals or fewer 61% by the model, 2.23 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: no 63% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 6.9 cards a match between them
- 5. 10 corners or fewer 8.1 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
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Gil Vicente vs Estoril: questions and answers
When is Gil Vicente vs Estoril?
Gil Vicente vs Estoril is on Sunday 29 November 2026, kick-off 18:00 UTC, in Liga Portugal Gameweek 12.
Where is Gil Vicente vs Estoril played?
At Estádio Cidade de Barcelos, Barcelos, Gil Vicente's home ground.
Who will win Gil Vicente vs Estoril?
Gil Vicente are the favourites: Gil Vicente 62%, draw 25%, Estoril 13%. Our prediction is Gil Vicente 2-0 Estoril.
Who is the player to watch in Gil Vicente vs Estoril?
Ismael Sierra of Estoril: a box defender with a Moneyball Score of 47 against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Gil Vicente vs Estoril?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.2 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 39%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.