Porto vs Sporting CP Prediction and Stats | Liga Portugal Gameweek 12
Liga Portugal · Sunday 29 November 2026 · 20:30 UTC · Estádio Do Dragão, Porto · updated 2026-11-15
Porto welcome Sporting CP to Estádio Do Dragão in Porto in Liga Portugal Gameweek 12 action on Sunday 29 November 2026, kick-off 20:30 UTC.
Porto have played 11 matches in Liga Portugal this season, scoring 2.5 and conceding 0.5 goals a game and winning 100% of them. At home they average 2.6 goals scored and 0.4 conceded over 5 matches, with a 45% win rate. Sporting CP have played 11 matches in Liga Portugal this season, scoring 2.2 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 64% of them. Away from home they average 2.4 goals scored and 0.8 conceded over 5 matches, with a 43% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Porto are narrow favourites at 53%, with the draw at 24% and Sporting CP at 22%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Porto 1.81, Sporting CP 1.11.
- Over 2.5 goals: 56% · both teams to score: 57%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (11 and 11 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Porto: form and key numbers
In style Porto keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 2.26 a match created, 0.93 conceded (goals minus xG: +2.1).
- Shots: 16.2 a match, 6.5 on target.
- Possession: 56.1% on average.
- Clean sheets: 55% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 45% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.8 a match.
- Discipline: 1.3 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.95.
Sporting CP: form and key numbers
In style Sporting CP keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.95 a match created, 0.88 conceded (goals minus xG: +2.6).
- Shots: 15.7 a match, 5.8 on target.
- Possession: 60.9% on average.
- Clean sheets: 36% of matches (50% away).
- Both teams scored in 64% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.5 a match.
- Discipline: 2.1 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.96.
Porto vs Sporting CP: season averages side by side
| Porto | Per match this season | Sporting CP |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Matches | 11 |
| 2.5 | Goals scored | 2.2 |
| 0.5 | Goals conceded | 1.0 |
| 2.26 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.95 |
| 0.93 | xG conceded | 0.88 |
| 16.2 | Shots | 15.7 |
| 6.5 | On target | 5.8 |
| 56.1 | Possession % | 60.9 |
| 55% | Clean sheets % | 36% |
| 45% | Both teams scored % | 64% |
| 6.8 | Corners | 5.5 |
| 1.3 | Yellow cards | 2.1 |
| 6.95 | Average rating | 6.96 |
Players to watch
Porto
- Jan Bednarek CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 74 · Hard to dribble past, Reads the game (top 1% of his position)
- Diogo Costa GK · Ball-playing keeper · Moneyball Score 59 · Secure passer, Long passer (top 6% of his position)
Sporting CP
- Sergi Altimira DMF · Deep-lying playmaker · Moneyball Score 72 · Secure passer, Ball-winner (top 2% of his position)
- Nestory Irankunda LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 57 · Chance creator, Creator (top 5% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Luis Suárez
Luis Suárez, 28 · Sporting CP · CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 72
Luis Suárez, 28, plays as a centre-forward for Sporting CP in Liga Portugal. Strongest for his role in shot quality (xG per shot) and expected goals. Weakest in aerial duels won. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 72
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 64
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.20 xG/shot | 98% |
| Expected goals | 0.75 / 90 | 97% |
| Goals, luck taken out | 0.82 / 90 | 96% |
| Shots | 3.78 / 90 | 88% |
| Shots on target | 39% | 56% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★★★★½ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★ Complete forward Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Takes high-quality shots, Gets into scoring positions, Scores and makes the chances to keep scoring.
- What Luis Suárez is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Luis Suárez's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Porto vs Sporting CP prediction
Sporting CP should have more of the ball; Porto are a threat in the air and from set pieces; Sporting CP work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals - 1.81 for Porto and 1.11 for Sporting CP - with over 2.5 goals at 56% and both teams scoring at 57%. Porto have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Porto 2-1 Sporting CP
Porto vs Sporting CP: what the numbers say
- 1. Porto unbeaten (win or draw) 78% between them
- 2. 3 or more goals 56% by the model, 2.92 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 57% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 4.4 cards a match between them
- 5. 10 or more corners 12.3 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
More Liga Portugal previews
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- Arouca vs Rio Ave Saturday 28 November 2026
- Academico Viseu vs Alverca Saturday 28 November 2026
- Vitória Guimarães vs Estrela Amadora Saturday 28 November 2026
- Gil Vicente vs Estoril Sunday 29 November 2026
Porto vs Sporting CP: questions and answers
When is Porto vs Sporting CP?
Porto vs Sporting CP is on Sunday 29 November 2026, kick-off 20:30 UTC, in Liga Portugal Gameweek 12.
Where is Porto vs Sporting CP played?
At Estádio Do Dragão, Porto, Porto's home ground.
Who will win Porto vs Sporting CP?
Porto are the favourites: Porto 53%, draw 24%, Sporting CP 22%. Our prediction is Porto 2-1 Sporting CP.
Who is the player to watch in Porto vs Sporting CP?
Luis Suárez of Sporting CP: a poacher with a Moneyball Score of 72 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Porto vs Sporting CP?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 56%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.