Gil Vicente vs Vitória Guimarães Prediction and Betting Tips | Liga Portugal Gameweek 10
Liga Portugal · Monday 2 November 2026 · 20:15 UTC · Estádio Cidade de Barcelos, Barcelos · updated 2026-10-25
Gil Vicente welcome Vitória Guimarães to Estádio Cidade de Barcelos in Barcelos in Liga Portugal Gameweek 10 action on Monday 2 November 2026, kick-off 20:15 UTC.
Gil Vicente have played 9 matches in Liga Portugal this season, scoring 0.9 and conceding 0.8 goals a game and winning 44% of them. At home they average 0.8 goals scored and 0.6 conceded over 5 matches, with a 50% win rate. Vitória Guimarães have played 9 matches in Liga Portugal this season, scoring 1.1 and conceding 1.1 goals a game and winning 22% of them. Away from home they average 0.8 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 4 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Gil Vicente 38%, the draw 32%, Vitória Guimarães 30%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Gil Vicente 1.09, Vitória Guimarães 0.95.
- Over 2.5 goals: 33% · both teams to score: 42%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (14%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (9 and 9 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Gil Vicente: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.36 a match created, 0.97 conceded (goals minus xG: -4.2).
- Shots: 13.0 a match, 3.6 on target.
- Possession: 51.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 44% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 33% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.2 a match.
- Discipline: 1.9 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.79.
Vitória Guimarães: form and key numbers
In style Vitória Guimarães keep the ball, press high, play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.70 a match created, 0.94 conceded (goals minus xG: -5.3).
- Shots: 17.6 a match, 4.6 on target.
- Possession: 54.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 33% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 33% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.8 a match.
- Discipline: 2.8 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.80.
Gil Vicente vs Vitória Guimarães: season averages side by side
| Gil Vicente | Per match this season | Vitória Guimarães |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Matches | 9 |
| 0.9 | Goals scored | 1.1 |
| 0.8 | Goals conceded | 1.1 |
| 1.36 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.70 |
| 0.97 | xG conceded | 0.94 |
| 13.0 | Shots | 17.6 |
| 3.6 | On target | 4.6 |
| 51.6 | Possession % | 54.0 |
| 44% | Clean sheets % | 33% |
| 33% | Both teams scored % | 33% |
| 3.2 | Corners | 5.8 |
| 1.9 | Yellow cards | 2.8 |
| 6.79 | Average rating | 6.80 |
Players to watch
Gil Vicente
- Zé Carlos CMF · Ball-winning midfielder · Moneyball Score 58 · Reads the game, Ball-winner (top 1% of his position)
- Diogo Prioste CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 50 · Press-resistant, Secure passer (top 1% of his position)
Vitória Guimarães
- Tony Strata RWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 56 · Hard to dribble past, Chance creator (top 4% of his position)
- A. Ndoye CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 55 · Dominant in the air, Duel winner (top 5% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Gustavo Silva
Gustavo Silva, 27 · Vitória Guimarães · RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 63
Gustavo Silva, 27, plays as a winger for Vitória Guimarães in Liga Portugal. Strongest for his role in key passes and expected goals. Weakest in successful dribbles. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LW · Winger Natural, 63
- RW · Winger Natural, 63
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 60
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Key passes | 3.04 / 90 | 88% |
| Expected goals | 0.46 / 90 | 87% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.33 / 90 | 83% |
| Shots | 3.80 / 90 | 83% |
| Big chances created | 0.46 / 90 | 66% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Pressing forward Centre-forward
- ★★★★ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★★ Shadow striker Second striker
Scout's notes: Chance creator, Gets into scoring positions, Creator.
- What Gustavo Silva is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Gustavo Silva's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Gil Vicente vs Vitória Guimarães prediction
Vitória Guimarães should have more of the ball; Vitória Guimarães are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 2.0 goals - 1.09 for Gil Vicente and 0.95 for Vitória Guimarães - with over 2.5 goals at 33% and both teams scoring at 42%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Gil Vicente 1-1 Vitória Guimarães
Gil Vicente vs Vitória Guimarães betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 38%
- Tip 2: Under 2.5 goals 67% by the model, 2.04 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: no 58% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 6.7 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 9.0 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Liga Portugal previews
- Estoril vs Moreirense Sunday 25 October 2026
- Rio Ave vs Famalicão Sunday 25 October 2026
- Nacional vs Sporting Braga Sunday 25 October 2026
- Sporting CP vs Academico Viseu Sunday 25 October 2026
- Santa Clara vs Benfica Monday 26 October 2026
- Casa Pia vs Sporting CP Friday 30 October 2026
- Moreirense vs Estrela Amadora Saturday 31 October 2026
- Porto vs Estoril Saturday 31 October 2026
Gil Vicente vs Vitória Guimarães: questions and answers
When is Gil Vicente vs Vitória Guimarães?
Gil Vicente vs Vitória Guimarães is on Monday 2 November 2026, kick-off 20:15 UTC, in Liga Portugal Gameweek 10.
Where is Gil Vicente vs Vitória Guimarães played?
At Estádio Cidade de Barcelos, Barcelos, Gil Vicente's home ground.
Who will win Gil Vicente vs Vitória Guimarães?
It is close: Gil Vicente 38%, draw 32%, Vitória Guimarães 30%. Our prediction is Gil Vicente 1-1 Vitória Guimarães.
Who is the player to watch in Gil Vicente vs Vitória Guimarães?
Gustavo Silva of Vitória Guimarães: a creative winger with a Moneyball Score of 63 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Gil Vicente vs Vitória Guimarães?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.0 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 33%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.