Gimnasia La Plata vs Belgrano Prediction and Betting Tips | Liga Profesional Argentina Gameweek 16
Liga Profesional Argentina · Sunday 8 November 2026 · 00:00 UTC · Estadio Juan Carmelo Zerillo, La Plata · updated 2026-10-25
Gimnasia La Plata welcome Belgrano to Estadio Juan Carmelo Zerillo in La Plata in Liga Profesional Argentina Gameweek 16 action on Sunday 8 November 2026, kick-off 00:00 UTC.
Gimnasia La Plata have played 32 matches in Liga Profesional Argentina this season, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.2 goals a game and winning 50% of them. At home they average 1.5 goals scored and 1.1 conceded over 15 matches, with a 50% win rate. Belgrano have played 33 matches in Liga Profesional Argentina this season, scoring 1.1 and conceding 0.8 goals a game and winning 48% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 0.7 conceded over 17 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Gimnasia La Plata 41%, the draw 28%, Belgrano 30%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Gimnasia La Plata 1.37, Belgrano 1.14.
- Over 2.5 goals: 46% · both teams to score: 51%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (32 and 33 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Gimnasia La Plata: form and key numbers
In style Gimnasia La Plata are happy without the ball, play long and direct, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.34 a match created, 1.11 conceded (goals minus xG: -1.9).
- Shots: 12.3 a match, 4.2 on target.
- Possession: 45.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 28% of matches (67% at home).
- Both teams scored in 53% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.0 a match.
- Discipline: 2.8 yellow cards a match, 6.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.84.
Belgrano: form and key numbers
In style Belgrano play long and direct, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.20 a match created, 1.29 conceded (goals minus xG: -1.6).
- Shots: 12.7 a match, 4.1 on target.
- Possession: 51.1% on average.
- Clean sheets: 48% of matches (63% away).
- Both teams scored in 39% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.0 a match.
- Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards a match, 6.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.84.
Gimnasia La Plata vs Belgrano: season averages side by side
| Gimnasia La Plata | Per match this season | Belgrano |
|---|---|---|
| 32 | Matches | 33 |
| 1.3 | Goals scored | 1.1 |
| 1.2 | Goals conceded | 0.8 |
| 1.34 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.20 |
| 1.11 | xG conceded | 1.29 |
| 12.3 | Shots | 12.7 |
| 4.2 | On target | 4.1 |
| 45.8 | Possession % | 51.1 |
| 28% | Clean sheets % | 48% |
| 53% | Both teams scored % | 39% |
| 4.0 | Corners | 4.0 |
| 2.8 | Yellow cards | 2.2 |
| 6.84 | Average rating | 6.84 |
Players to watch
Gimnasia La Plata
- Franco Torres RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 49 · Big-chance creator, Gets into scoring positions (top 34% of his position)
- Germán Conti CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 47 · Box defender, Dominant in the air (top 8% of his position)
Belgrano
- Lisandro López CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 45 · Disciplined, Box defender (top 10% of his position)
- Alcides Benítez RB · Defensive full-back · Moneyball Score 45 · Ball-winner, Duel winner (top 7% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Renzo Giampaoli
Renzo Giampaoli, 26 · Gimnasia La Plata · CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 51
Renzo Giampaoli, 26, plays as a centre-back for Gimnasia La Plata in the Argentine Liga Profesional. Strongest for his role in clearances and aerial duels won. Weakest in passes. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CB · Centre-back Natural, 51
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Clearances | 8.75 / 90 | 92% |
| Aerial duels won | 3.40 / 90 | 82% |
| Blocked shots | 1.17 / 90 | 75% |
| Fouls committed | 0.61 / 90 | 73% |
| Interceptions | 1.73 / 90 | 65% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Box defender Centre-back
- ★★★ Stopper Centre-back
- ★★½ Anchor Defensive midfielder
Scout's notes: Box defender, Dominant in the air.
- What Renzo Giampaoli is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Renzo Giampaoli's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Gimnasia La Plata vs Belgrano prediction
Belgrano should have more of the ball, with Gimnasia La Plata likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Gimnasia La Plata are a threat in the air and from set pieces; Belgrano like to take players on. Moneyball's model expects about 2.5 goals - 1.37 for Gimnasia La Plata and 1.14 for Belgrano - with over 2.5 goals at 46% and both teams scoring at 51%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Gimnasia La Plata 1-1 Belgrano
Gimnasia La Plata vs Belgrano betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 41%
- Tip 2: Under 2.5 goals 54% by the model, 2.51 goals expected
- Tip 3: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 17.0 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Under 10.5 corners 8.0 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Liga Profesional Argentina previews
- Aldosivi vs Belgrano Sunday 25 October 2026
- Independiente vs Boca Juniors Sunday 25 October 2026
- River Plate vs Racing Club Sunday 25 October 2026
- Barracas Central vs Estudiantes de Río Cuarto Monday 26 October 2026
- Central Cordoba SdE vs Vélez Sarsfield Monday 26 October 2026
- Unión Santa Fe vs Estudiantes Monday 26 October 2026
- Instituto vs Deportivo Riestra Tuesday 27 October 2026
- Argentinos Juniors vs Independiente Rivadavia Tuesday 27 October 2026
Gimnasia La Plata vs Belgrano: questions and answers
When is Gimnasia La Plata vs Belgrano?
Gimnasia La Plata vs Belgrano is on Sunday 8 November 2026, kick-off 00:00 UTC, in Liga Profesional Argentina Gameweek 16.
Where is Gimnasia La Plata vs Belgrano played?
At Estadio Juan Carmelo Zerillo, La Plata, Gimnasia La Plata's home ground.
Who will win Gimnasia La Plata vs Belgrano?
It is close: Gimnasia La Plata 41%, draw 28%, Belgrano 30%. Our prediction is Gimnasia La Plata 1-1 Belgrano.
Who is the player to watch in Gimnasia La Plata vs Belgrano?
Renzo Giampaoli of Gimnasia La Plata: a box defender with a Moneyball Score of 51 against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Gimnasia La Plata vs Belgrano?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.5 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 46%.
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Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.