Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza vs Independiente Rivadavia Prediction and Betting Tips | Liga Profesional Argentina Gameweek 16
Liga Profesional Argentina · Sunday 8 November 2026 · 00:00 UTC · Estadio Víctor Antonio Legrotaglie, Mendoza · updated 2026-10-25
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza welcome Independiente Rivadavia to Estadio Víctor Antonio Legrotaglie in Mendoza in Liga Profesional Argentina Gameweek 16 action on Sunday 8 November 2026, kick-off 00:00 UTC.
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza have played 30 matches in Liga Profesional Argentina this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 1.2 goals a game and winning 37% of them. At home they average 1.3 goals scored and 0.9 conceded over 15 matches, with a 73% win rate. Independiente Rivadavia have played 30 matches in Liga Profesional Argentina this season, scoring 1.6 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 50% of them. Away from home they average 0.9 goals scored and 1.2 conceded over 14 matches, with a 33% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Independiente Rivadavia are narrow favourites at 47%, with the draw at 26% and Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza at 28%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza 1.22, Independiente Rivadavia 1.65.
- Over 2.5 goals: 55% · both teams to score: 58%.
- Most likely score: 1–2 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (30 and 30 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza: form and key numbers
In style Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza play long and direct, are strong in the air, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.01 a match created, 1.58 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.3).
- Shots: 12.2 a match, 3.8 on target.
- Possession: 46.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 30% of matches (67% at home).
- Both teams scored in 40% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.7 a match.
- Discipline: 2.5 yellow cards a match, 4.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.77.
Independiente Rivadavia: form and key numbers
In style Independiente Rivadavia play long and direct, cross a lot, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.39 a match created, 1.12 conceded (goals minus xG: +5.3).
- Shots: 14.3 a match, 5.1 on target.
- Possession: 48.2% on average.
- Clean sheets: 23% of matches (86% away).
- Both teams scored in 67% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.2 a match.
- Discipline: 2.1 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.82.
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza vs Independiente Rivadavia: season averages side by side
| Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza | Per match this season | Independiente Rivadavia |
|---|---|---|
| 30 | Matches | 30 |
| 1.0 | Goals scored | 1.6 |
| 1.2 | Goals conceded | 1.3 |
| 1.01 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.39 |
| 1.58 | xG conceded | 1.12 |
| 12.2 | Shots | 14.3 |
| 3.8 | On target | 5.1 |
| 46.6 | Possession % | 48.2 |
| 30% | Clean sheets % | 23% |
| 40% | Both teams scored % | 67% |
| 3.7 | Corners | 4.2 |
| 2.5 | Yellow cards | 2.1 |
| 6.77 | Average rating | 6.82 |
Players to watch
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza
- Facundo Lencioni LWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 47 · Crosser, Chance creator (top 15% of his position)
- César Rigamonti GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 47 · Dominant in the air, Long passer (top 54% of his position)
Independiente Rivadavia
- Luis Sequeira AMF · Creator · Moneyball Score 56 · Big-chance creator, Creator (top 13% of his position)
- Matías Reali RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 47 · Crosser, Chance creator (top 1% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Álex Arce
Álex Arce, 31 · Independiente Rivadavia · CF · Target man · Moneyball Score 61
Álex Arce, 31, plays as a centre-forward for Independiente Rivadavia in the Argentine Liga Profesional. Strongest for his role in aerial duels won and shot quality (xG per shot). Weakest in shots. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 61
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 53
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Aerial duels won | 6.13 / 90 | 98% |
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.21 xG/shot | 94% |
| Duels won | 8.64 / 90 | 91% |
| Expected goals | 0.60 / 90 | 65% |
| Shots on target | 44% | 56% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Target man Centre-forward
- ★★★★ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★½ Complete forward Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Dominant in the air, Takes high-quality shots, Duel winner.
- What Álex Arce is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza vs Independiente Rivadavia prediction
Independiente Rivadavia should have more of the ball; both sides are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals - 1.22 for Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza and 1.65 for Independiente Rivadavia - with over 2.5 goals at 55% and both teams scoring at 58%. Independiente Rivadavia have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza 1-2 Independiente Rivadavia
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza vs Independiente Rivadavia betting tips
- Tip 1: Independiente Rivadavia win or draw (double chance) 72% between them
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.88 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (55%)
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 58% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 9.6 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Under 10.5 corners 7.9 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Liga Profesional Argentina previews
- Aldosivi vs Belgrano Sunday 25 October 2026
- Independiente vs Boca Juniors Sunday 25 October 2026
- River Plate vs Racing Club Sunday 25 October 2026
- Barracas Central vs Estudiantes de Río Cuarto Monday 26 October 2026
- Central Cordoba SdE vs Vélez Sarsfield Monday 26 October 2026
- Unión Santa Fe vs Estudiantes Monday 26 October 2026
- Instituto vs Deportivo Riestra Tuesday 27 October 2026
- Argentinos Juniors vs Independiente Rivadavia Tuesday 27 October 2026
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza vs Independiente Rivadavia: questions and answers
When is Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza vs Independiente Rivadavia?
Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza vs Independiente Rivadavia is on Sunday 8 November 2026, kick-off 00:00 UTC, in Liga Profesional Argentina Gameweek 16.
Where is Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza vs Independiente Rivadavia played?
At Estadio Víctor Antonio Legrotaglie, Mendoza, Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza's home ground.
Who will win Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza vs Independiente Rivadavia?
Independiente Rivadavia are the favourites: Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza 28%, draw 26%, Independiente Rivadavia 47%. Our prediction is Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza 1-2 Independiente Rivadavia.
Who is the player to watch in Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza vs Independiente Rivadavia?
Álex Arce of Independiente Rivadavia: a target man with a Moneyball Score of 61 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Gimnasia y Esgrima Mendoza vs Independiente Rivadavia?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 55%.
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