Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart: Prediction, Stats and Preview
Bundesliga · Saturday 17 October 2026 · 13:30 UTC · Volksparkstadion, Hamburg · updated 2026-10-09
Hamburger SV host VfB Stuttgart in the Bundesliga on Saturday 17 October 2026 at Volksparkstadion. On this season's numbers, Moneyball's model makes VfB Stuttgart favourites at 47%, puts the draw at 23% and expects about 3.5 goals.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Hamburger SV 1.53, VfB Stuttgart 1.93.
- Over 2.5 goals: 67% · both teams to score: 68%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (4 and 4 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
The difference-maker: Maximilian Mittelstädt
Maximilian Mittelstädt, 29 · VfB Stuttgart · LWB · Attacking wing-back
Moneyball Scout picks Maximilian Mittelstädt as the player most likely to decide this match, with a Moneyball Score of 82 against every wing-back in Europe's top five leagues (attacking 74, defensive 77).
- Expected assists (est.): 0.59 per 90 minutes, better than 99% of wing-backs
- Accurate crosses: 3.36 per 90 minutes, better than 95% of wing-backs
- Key passes: 3.62 per 90 minutes, better than 95% of wing-backs
Hamburger SV concede 3.3 goals a match this season (1.98 expected), more than the league's average: the space a attacking wing-back like Maximilian Mittelstädt lives on.
Scout's notes: Creator, Crosser, Chance creator.
What he is worth on the market, how many league points he would add to another club and who could replace him: Moneyball Scouting Players Research.
Season statistics
| Hamburger SV | Per match this season | VfB Stuttgart |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Matches | 4 |
| 0.5 | Goals scored | 1.5 |
| 3.3 | Goals conceded | 2.3 |
| 0.87 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.86 |
| 1.98 | xG conceded | 2.15 |
| 9.5 | Shots | 15.3 |
| 3.8 | On target | 5.5 |
| 41.8 | Possession % | 53.0 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 0% |
| 25% | Both teams scored % | 75% |
| 3.8 | Corners | 6.5 |
| 1.3 | Yellow cards | 1.5 |
| 6.52 | Average rating | 6.82 |
Averages per match from Sportmonks.
Players to watch
Hamburger SV
- Albert Grønbæk forward · rating 7.15 · 4 apps
- Patson Daka forward · rating 6.76 · 4 apps
- Albert Sambi Lokonga midfielder · rating 6.74 · 3 apps
VfB Stuttgart
- Maximilian Mittelstädt defender · rating 7.91 · 4 apps
- Josha Vagnoman midfielder · rating 7.35 · 4 apps
- Jeff Chabot defender · rating 7.03 · 4 apps
The best-rated players of each side this season, with 180 minutes or more.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Bundesliga previews
- Borussia Dortmund vs Werder Bremen Friday 9 October 2026
- Paderborn vs VfB Stuttgart Saturday 10 October 2026
- RB Leipzig vs Eintracht Frankfurt Saturday 10 October 2026
- FC Köln vs Borussia Mönchengladbach Sunday 11 October 2026
- SC Freiburg vs Schalke 04 Sunday 11 October 2026
- Eintracht Frankfurt vs FC Köln Friday 16 October 2026
- Elversberg vs FC Augsburg Saturday 17 October 2026
- Schalke 04 vs FSV Mainz 05 Saturday 17 October 2026
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.