Heart of Midlothian vs Nordsjaelland Prediction and Betting Tips | UEFA Conference League Gameweek 1
UEFA Conference League · Thursday 15 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-10
Heart of Midlothian welcome Nordsjaelland to Tynecastle Park in Edinburgh in UEFA Conference League Gameweek 1 action on Thursday 15 October 2026.
Heart of Midlothian have played 2 matches in UEFA Conference League this season, scoring 0.0 and conceding 3.0 goals a game and winning 0% of them. At home they average 0.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 1 match, with a 0% win rate. Nordsjaelland have played 6 matches in UEFA Conference League this season, scoring 2.8 and conceding 0.5 goals a game and winning 83% of them. Away from home they average 1.7 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 3 matches, with a 40% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, there is little to separate them: Heart of Midlothian 33%, the draw 26%, Nordsjaelland 41%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (12.3% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Heart of Midlothian 0 at 2.05, Nordsjaelland at 1.63. The main goals line is 3: over 1.81, under 1.85, which gives over 51%.
Heart of Midlothian: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.25 a match created (goals minus xG: -2.5).
- Shots: 17.0 a match, 5.0 on target.
- Possession: 65.5% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 0% of their matches.
- Corners: 10.0 a match.
- Discipline: 1.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.62.
Nordsjaelland: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 2.42 a match created (goals minus xG: +2.5).
- Shots: 19.3 a match, 6.7 on target.
- Possession: 60.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 67% of matches (25% away).
- Both teams scored in 17% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.8 a match.
- Discipline: 1.2 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.08.
Heart of Midlothian vs Nordsjaelland: season averages side by side
| Heart of Midlothian | Per match | Nordsjaelland |
|---|---|---|
| 1.25 | Expected goals (xG) | 2.42 |
| 0.00 | Goals | 2.83 |
| 17.0 | Shots | 19.3 |
| 5.0 | Shots on target | 6.7 |
| 2.0 | Big chances missed | 1.5 |
| 18.0 | Tackles | 14.3 |
| 11.5 | Fouls | 15.7 |
| 1.0 | Yellow cards | 1.2 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 2 and 6 measured matches.
Heart of Midlothian vs Nordsjaelland prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 3.5 goals - 0.76 for Heart of Midlothian and 2.71 for Nordsjaelland - with over 2.5 goals at 67% and both teams scoring at 50%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Heart of Midlothian 1-1 Nordsjaelland
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Heart of Midlothian vs Nordsjaelland betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 41%
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 67% by the model, 3.46 goals expected
- Tip 3: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 2.2 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Over 9.5 corners 15.8 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
Open Heart of Midlothian vs Nordsjaelland in the Match Centre Follow it live
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Heart of Midlothian vs Nordsjaelland: questions and answers
When is Heart of Midlothian vs Nordsjaelland?
Heart of Midlothian vs Nordsjaelland is on Thursday 15 October 2026, in UEFA Conference League Gameweek 1.
Where is Heart of Midlothian vs Nordsjaelland played?
At Tynecastle Park, Edinburgh, Heart of Midlothian's home ground.
Who will win Heart of Midlothian vs Nordsjaelland?
It is close: Heart of Midlothian 33%, draw 26%, Nordsjaelland 41%. Our prediction is Heart of Midlothian 1-1 Nordsjaelland.
How many goals will there be in Heart of Midlothian vs Nordsjaelland?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.5 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 67%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.