Independiente vs Deportivo Riestra Prediction and Betting Tips | Liga Profesional Argentina Gameweek 16
Liga Profesional Argentina · Sunday 8 November 2026 · 00:00 UTC · Estadio Libertadores de América, Avellaneda · updated 2026-10-25
Independiente welcome Deportivo Riestra to Estadio Libertadores de América in Avellaneda in Liga Profesional Argentina Gameweek 16 action on Sunday 8 November 2026, kick-off 00:00 UTC.
Independiente have played 30 matches in Liga Profesional Argentina this season, scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.2 goals a game and winning 37% of them. At home they average 1.3 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 14 matches, with a 45% win rate. Deportivo Riestra have played 29 matches in Liga Profesional Argentina this season, scoring 0.5 and conceding 0.9 goals a game and winning 10% of them. Away from home they average 0.2 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 14 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Independiente are narrow favourites at 42%, with the draw at 34% and Deportivo Riestra at 24%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Independiente 1.08, Deportivo Riestra 0.74.
- Over 2.5 goals: 27% · both teams to score: 35%.
- Most likely score: 2–0 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (30 and 29 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Independiente: form and key numbers
In style Independiente play long and direct, are strong in the air, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.06 a match created, 1.17 conceded (goals minus xG: +5.3).
- Shots: 12.9 a match, 3.8 on target.
- Possession: 52.1% on average.
- Clean sheets: 30% of matches (56% at home).
- Both teams scored in 57% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.6 a match.
- Discipline: 2.3 yellow cards a match, 5.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.79.
Deportivo Riestra: form and key numbers
In style Deportivo Riestra are happy without the ball, play long and direct, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 0.89 a match created, 0.95 conceded (goals minus xG: -10.7).
- Shots: 10.4 a match, 3.4 on target.
- Possession: 36.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 34% of matches (40% away).
- Both teams scored in 28% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.7 a match.
- Discipline: 3.2 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.70.
Independiente vs Deportivo Riestra: season averages side by side
| Independiente | Per match this season | Deportivo Riestra |
|---|---|---|
| 30 | Matches | 29 |
| 1.2 | Goals scored | 0.5 |
| 1.2 | Goals conceded | 0.9 |
| 1.06 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.89 |
| 1.17 | xG conceded | 0.95 |
| 12.9 | Shots | 10.4 |
| 3.8 | On target | 3.4 |
| 52.1 | Possession % | 36.0 |
| 30% | Clean sheets % | 34% |
| 57% | Both teams scored % | 28% |
| 5.6 | Corners | 3.7 |
| 2.3 | Yellow cards | 3.2 |
| 6.79 | Average rating | 6.70 |
Players to watch
Independiente
- Santiago Montiel RWF · Classic winger · Moneyball Score 43 · Crosser, Dribbler (top 23% of his position)
- Sebastián Valdez CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 39 · Box defender, Disciplined (top 21% of his position)
Deportivo Riestra
- Miguel Barbieri CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 45 · Dominant in the air, Reads the game (top 30% of his position)
- Ignacio Arce GK · Ball-playing keeper · Moneyball Score 43 · Long passer, Dominant in the air (top 1% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Juan Fedorco
Juan Fedorco, 25 · Independiente · CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 48
Juan Fedorco, 25, plays as a centre-back for Independiente in the Argentine Liga Profesional. Strongest for his role in aerial duels won and duels won. Weakest in pass accuracy. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CB · Centre-back Natural, 48
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Aerial duels won | 4.58 / 90 | 96% |
| Duels won | 7.09 / 90 | 89% |
| Interceptions | 2.08 / 90 | 82% |
| Tackles | 2.00 / 90 | 65% |
| Blocked shots | 0.93 / 90 | 54% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Stopper Centre-back
- ★★★ Box defender Centre-back
- ★★★ Anchor Defensive midfielder
Scout's notes: Dominant in the air, Duel winner, Reads the game.
- What Juan Fedorco is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Juan Fedorco's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Independiente vs Deportivo Riestra prediction
Independiente should have more of the ball, with Deportivo Riestra likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; both sides are a threat in the air and from set pieces. Moneyball's model expects about 1.8 goals - 1.08 for Independiente and 0.74 for Deportivo Riestra - with over 2.5 goals at 27% and both teams scoring at 35%. Independiente have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Independiente 2-0 Deportivo Riestra
Independiente vs Deportivo Riestra betting tips
- Tip 1: Independiente win or draw (double chance) 76% between them
- Tip 2: Under 1.5 goals 45% by the model, 1.82 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: no 65% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 11.5 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 9.2 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Liga Profesional Argentina previews
- Aldosivi vs Belgrano Sunday 25 October 2026
- Independiente vs Boca Juniors Sunday 25 October 2026
- River Plate vs Racing Club Sunday 25 October 2026
- Barracas Central vs Estudiantes de Río Cuarto Monday 26 October 2026
- Central Cordoba SdE vs Vélez Sarsfield Monday 26 October 2026
- Unión Santa Fe vs Estudiantes Monday 26 October 2026
- Instituto vs Deportivo Riestra Tuesday 27 October 2026
- Argentinos Juniors vs Independiente Rivadavia Tuesday 27 October 2026
Independiente vs Deportivo Riestra: questions and answers
When is Independiente vs Deportivo Riestra?
Independiente vs Deportivo Riestra is on Sunday 8 November 2026, kick-off 00:00 UTC, in Liga Profesional Argentina Gameweek 16.
Where is Independiente vs Deportivo Riestra played?
At Estadio Libertadores de América, Avellaneda, Independiente's home ground.
Who will win Independiente vs Deportivo Riestra?
Independiente are the favourites: Independiente 42%, draw 34%, Deportivo Riestra 24%. Our prediction is Independiente 2-0 Deportivo Riestra.
Who is the player to watch in Independiente vs Deportivo Riestra?
Juan Fedorco of Independiente: a stopper with a Moneyball Score of 48 against every centre-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Independiente vs Deportivo Riestra?
Moneyball's model expects about 1.8 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 27%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.