Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Ararat-Armenia Prediction and Betting Tips | UEFA Europa League Gameweek 2
UEFA Europa League · Thursday 15 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-10
Jagiellonia Bialystok welcome Ararat-Armenia to Stadion Miejski in Białystok in UEFA Europa League Gameweek 2 action on Thursday 15 October 2026.
Jagiellonia Bialystok have played 5 matches in UEFA Europa League this season, scoring 2.0 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 60% of them. At home they average 3.0 goals scored and 0.5 conceded over 2 matches, with a 67% win rate. Ararat-Armenia have played 6 matches in UEFA Europa League this season, scoring 1.5 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 50% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 2.3 conceded over 3 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, Jagiellonia Bialystok are clear favourites at 65%, with the draw at 21% and Ararat-Armenia at 14%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (12.3% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Jagiellonia Bialystok -1.25 at 1.93, Ararat-Armenia at 1.95. The main goals line is 3: over 2.04, under 1.83, which gives over 47%.
Jagiellonia Bialystok: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 0.43 a match created (goals minus xG: +7.8).
- Shots: 10.4 a match, 5.2 on target.
- Possession: 43.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 20% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 80% of their matches.
- Corners: 2.2 a match.
- Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.53.
Ararat-Armenia: form and key numbers
- Shots: 7.0 a match, 3.0 on target.
- Possession: 43.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 33% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.2 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.35.
Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Ararat-Armenia: season averages side by side
| Jagiellonia Bialystok | Per match | Ararat-Armenia |
|---|---|---|
| 0.43 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.75 |
| 2.00 | Goals | 1.50 |
| 10.4 | Shots | 7.0 |
| 5.2 | Shots on target | 3.0 |
| 0.2 | Big chances missed | – |
| 5.6 | Tackles | – |
| 15.4 | Fouls | 10.7 |
| 1.6 | Yellow cards | 1.8 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 5 and 6 measured matches.
Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Ararat-Armenia prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 2.5 goals - 1.39 for Jagiellonia Bialystok and 1.12 for Ararat-Armenia - with over 2.5 goals at 46% and both teams scoring at 51%. Jagiellonia Bialystok have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Jagiellonia Bialystok 1-0 Ararat-Armenia
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Ararat-Armenia betting tips
- Tip 1: Jagiellonia Bialystok to win 65% on the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.51 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (46%)
- Tip 3: Under 4.5 cards the two sides average 3.4 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Under 10.5 corners 6.4 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
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Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Ararat-Armenia: questions and answers
When is Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Ararat-Armenia?
Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Ararat-Armenia is on Thursday 15 October 2026, in UEFA Europa League Gameweek 2.
Where is Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Ararat-Armenia played?
At Stadion Miejski, Białystok, Jagiellonia Bialystok's home ground.
Who will win Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Ararat-Armenia?
Jagiellonia Bialystok are the favourites: Jagiellonia Bialystok 65%, draw 21%, Ararat-Armenia 14%. Our prediction is Jagiellonia Bialystok 1-0 Ararat-Armenia.
How many goals will there be in Jagiellonia Bialystok vs Ararat-Armenia?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.5 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 46%.
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