Le Havre vs Strasbourg Prediction and Stats | Ligue 1 Gameweek 12
Ligue 1 · Saturday 28 November 2026 · 19:45 UTC · Stade Océane, Le Havre · updated 2026-11-14
Le Havre welcome Strasbourg to Stade Océane in Le Havre in Ligue 1 Gameweek 12 action on Saturday 28 November 2026, kick-off 19:45 UTC.
Le Havre have played 10 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 0.9 and conceding 2.2 goals a game and winning 0% of them. At home they average 0.5 goals scored and 2.2 conceded over 6 matches, with a 0% win rate. Strasbourg have played 10 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 1.8 and conceding 2.2 goals a game and winning 30% of them. Away from home they average 1.5 goals scored and 2.7 conceded over 6 matches, with a 33% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Le Havre 42%, the draw 23%, Strasbourg 35%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Le Havre 1.86, Strasbourg 1.70.
- Over 2.5 goals: 69% · both teams to score: 69%.
- Most likely score: 3–1 (5%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (10 and 10 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Le Havre: form and key numbers
In style Le Havre press high, play long and direct, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.72 a match created, 1.56 conceded (goals minus xG: -8.2).
- Shots: 16.6 a match, 5.0 on target.
- Possession: 47.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 10% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 60% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.3 a match.
- Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.78.
Strasbourg: form and key numbers
In style Strasbourg take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.40 a match created, 1.76 conceded (goals minus xG: +4.0).
- Shots: 12.6 a match, 4.9 on target.
- Possession: 48.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 80% of their matches.
- Corners: 2.5 a match.
- Discipline: 1.7 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.74.
Le Havre vs Strasbourg: season averages side by side
| Le Havre | Per match this season | Strasbourg |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Matches | 10 |
| 0.9 | Goals scored | 1.8 |
| 2.2 | Goals conceded | 2.2 |
| 1.72 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.40 |
| 1.56 | xG conceded | 1.76 |
| 16.6 | Shots | 12.6 |
| 5.0 | On target | 4.9 |
| 47.7 | Possession % | 48.3 |
| 10% | Clean sheets % | 0% |
| 60% | Both teams scored % | 80% |
| 5.3 | Corners | 2.5 |
| 1.6 | Yellow cards | 1.7 |
| 6.78 | Average rating | 6.74 |
Players to watch
Le Havre
- Josh Maja CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 65 · Takes high-quality shots, Gets into scoring positions (top 1% of his position)
- Junior Mwanga DMF · Anchor · Moneyball Score 63 · Hard to dribble past, Disciplined (top 3% of his position)
Strasbourg
- Pape Demba Diop CMF · Ball-winning midfielder · Moneyball Score 66 · Press-resistant, Ball-winner (top 2% of his position)
- Jeyland Mitchell CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 57 · Reads the game, Ball-winner (top 18% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Djibril Ouziad
Djibril Ouziad, 17 · Le Havre · RWB · Complete wing-back · Moneyball Score 71
Djibril Ouziad, 17, plays as a wing-back for Le Havre in Ligue 1. Strongest for his role in accurate crosses and duels won. Weakest in dribbled past. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every wing-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average wing-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RWB · Wing-back Natural, 71
- RM · Wide midfielder Natural, 71
- RB · Full-back Natural, 70
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Accurate crosses | 2.15 / 90 | 96% |
| Duels won | 6.85 / 90 | 88% |
| Successful dribbles | 1.61 / 90 | 82% |
| Key passes | 2.15 / 90 | 79% |
| Expected goals | 0.13 / 90 | 71% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Attacking full-back Full-back
- ★★★★ Two-way wide midfielder Wide midfielder
- ★★★★ Complete wing-back Wing-back
Scout's notes: Crosser, Duel winner, Dribbler.
- What Djibril Ouziad is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Djibril Ouziad's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Le Havre vs Strasbourg prediction
Strasbourg should have more of the ball; Le Havre work the ball wide and cross; Strasbourg like to take players on. Moneyball's model expects about 3.6 goals - 1.86 for Le Havre and 1.70 for Strasbourg - with over 2.5 goals at 69% and both teams scoring at 69%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Le Havre 2-2 Strasbourg
Le Havre vs Strasbourg: what the numbers say
- 1. A draw or either side by one goal is the likeliest shape no side above 42%
- 2. 3 or more goals 69% by the model, 3.56 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 69% by the model
- 4. 4 or more cards the two sides average 6.3 cards a match between them
- 5. 10 corners or fewer 7.8 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
More Ligue 1 previews
- Troyes vs Le Havre Friday 20 November 2026
- Nice vs Paris Saint Germain Saturday 21 November 2026
- Strasbourg vs Brest Saturday 21 November 2026
- Monaco vs Auxerre Saturday 21 November 2026
- LOSC Lille vs Olympique Lyonnais Saturday 21 November 2026
- Lens vs Toulouse Saturday 21 November 2026
- Paris vs Angers SCO Sunday 22 November 2026
- Lorient vs Rennes Sunday 22 November 2026
Le Havre vs Strasbourg: questions and answers
When is Le Havre vs Strasbourg?
Le Havre vs Strasbourg is on Saturday 28 November 2026, kick-off 19:45 UTC, in Ligue 1 Gameweek 12.
Where is Le Havre vs Strasbourg played?
At Stade Océane, Le Havre, Le Havre's home ground.
Who will win Le Havre vs Strasbourg?
It is close: Le Havre 42%, draw 23%, Strasbourg 35%. Our prediction is Le Havre 2-2 Strasbourg.
Who is the player to watch in Le Havre vs Strasbourg?
Djibril Ouziad of Le Havre: a complete wing-back with a Moneyball Score of 71 against every wing-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Le Havre vs Strasbourg?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.6 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 69%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.