Le Mans vs LOSC Lille Prediction and Stats | Ligue 1 Gameweek 12
Ligue 1 · Saturday 28 November 2026 · 19:45 UTC · Stade de La Pincenardière, Mulsanne · updated 2026-11-14
Le Mans welcome LOSC Lille to Stade de La Pincenardière in Mulsanne in Ligue 1 Gameweek 12 action on Saturday 28 November 2026, kick-off 19:45 UTC.
Le Mans have played 10 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.9 goals a game and winning 10% of them. At home they average 1.4 goals scored and 1.8 conceded over 5 matches, with a 100% win rate. LOSC Lille have played 10 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 1.4 and conceding 0.7 goals a game and winning 60% of them. Away from home they average 1.4 goals scored and 0.8 conceded over 5 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Le Mans 31%, the draw 27%, LOSC Lille 42%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Le Mans 1.20, LOSC Lille 1.44.
- Over 2.5 goals: 49% · both teams to score: 54%.
- Most likely score: 1–2 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (10 and 10 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Le Mans: form and key numbers
In style Le Mans are happy without the ball, play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.44 a match created, 1.79 conceded (goals minus xG: -2.4).
- Shots: 10.7 a match, 3.6 on target.
- Possession: 46.2% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 80% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.0 a match.
- Discipline: 2.3 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.70.
LOSC Lille: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.18 a match created, 1.43 conceded (goals minus xG: +2.3).
- Shots: 11.4 a match, 5.0 on target.
- Possession: 49.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 50% of matches (40% away).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.6 a match.
- Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.87.
Le Mans vs LOSC Lille: season averages side by side
| Le Mans | Per match this season | LOSC Lille |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Matches | 10 |
| 1.2 | Goals scored | 1.4 |
| 1.9 | Goals conceded | 0.7 |
| 1.44 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.18 |
| 1.79 | xG conceded | 1.43 |
| 10.7 | Shots | 11.4 |
| 3.6 | On target | 5.0 |
| 46.2 | Possession % | 49.4 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 50% |
| 80% | Both teams scored % | 50% |
| 3.0 | Corners | 3.6 |
| 2.3 | Yellow cards | 1.6 |
| 6.70 | Average rating | 6.87 |
Players to watch
Le Mans
- Lucas Bretelle DMF · Ball-winner · Moneyball Score 62 · Reads the game, Press-resistant (top 6% of his position)
- Rayan Bamba RB · Attacking full-back · Moneyball Score 56 · Dribbler, Hard to dribble past (top 16% of his position)
LOSC Lille
- Alexsandro CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 76 · Disciplined, Blocks shots (top 4% of his position)
- Olivier Giroud CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 57 · Takes high-quality shots, Dominant in the air (top 8% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Lucas Calodat
Lucas Calodat, 24 · Le Mans · LWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 71
Lucas Calodat, 24, plays as a wing-back for Le Mans in Ligue 1. Strongest for his role in successful dribbles and expected assists (est.). Weakest in expected goals. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every wing-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average wing-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LWB · Wing-back Natural, 71
- LM · Wide midfielder Natural, 71
- LB · Full-back Accomplished, 67
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Successful dribbles | 1.84 / 90 | 92% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.33 / 90 | 88% |
| Dribbled past | 0.28 / 90 | 84% |
| Accurate crosses | 1.55 / 90 | 80% |
| Interceptions | 1.41 / 90 | 77% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Attacking full-back Full-back
- ★★★★ Two-way wide midfielder Wide midfielder
- ★★★★ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
Scout's notes: Dribbler, Creator, Hard to dribble past.
- What Lucas Calodat is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Lucas Calodat's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Le Mans vs LOSC Lille prediction
LOSC Lille should have more of the ball; Le Mans go long and direct. Moneyball's model expects about 2.6 goals - 1.20 for Le Mans and 1.44 for LOSC Lille - with over 2.5 goals at 49% and both teams scoring at 54%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Le Mans 1-1 LOSC Lille
Le Mans vs LOSC Lille: what the numbers say
- 1. A draw or either side by one goal is the likeliest shape no side above 42%
- 2. 2 or more goals 2.64 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (49%)
- 3. 4 or more cards the two sides average 5.9 cards a match between them
- 4. 10 corners or fewer 6.6 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
More Ligue 1 previews
- Troyes vs Le Havre Friday 20 November 2026
- Nice vs Paris Saint Germain Saturday 21 November 2026
- Strasbourg vs Brest Saturday 21 November 2026
- Monaco vs Auxerre Saturday 21 November 2026
- LOSC Lille vs Olympique Lyonnais Saturday 21 November 2026
- Lens vs Toulouse Saturday 21 November 2026
- Paris vs Angers SCO Sunday 22 November 2026
- Lorient vs Rennes Sunday 22 November 2026
Le Mans vs LOSC Lille: questions and answers
When is Le Mans vs LOSC Lille?
Le Mans vs LOSC Lille is on Saturday 28 November 2026, kick-off 19:45 UTC, in Ligue 1 Gameweek 12.
Where is Le Mans vs LOSC Lille played?
At Stade de La Pincenardière, Mulsanne, Le Mans's home ground.
Who will win Le Mans vs LOSC Lille?
It is close: Le Mans 31%, draw 27%, LOSC Lille 42%. Our prediction is Le Mans 1-1 LOSC Lille.
Who is the player to watch in Le Mans vs LOSC Lille?
Lucas Calodat of Le Mans: a attacking wing-back with a Moneyball Score of 71 against every wing-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Le Mans vs LOSC Lille?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.6 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 49%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.