Madura United vs Arema Prediction and Betting Tips | Liga 1 Indonesia Gameweek 9
Liga 1 Indonesia · Friday 6 November 2026 · 12:00 UTC · Gelora Madura Ratu Pamelingan Stadium, Pamekasan · updated 2026-10-25
Madura United welcome Arema to Gelora Madura Ratu Pamelingan Stadium in Pamekasan in Liga 1 Indonesia Gameweek 9 action on Friday 6 November 2026, kick-off 12:00 UTC.
Madura United have played 6 matches in Liga 1 Indonesia this season, scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.2 goals a game and winning 67% of them. At home they average 2.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 4 matches, with a 75% win rate. Arema have played 7 matches in Liga 1 Indonesia this season, scoring 2.3 and conceding 2.0 goals a game and winning 29% of them. Away from home they average 1.7 goals scored and 3.7 conceded over 3 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Madura United are narrow favourites at 53%, with the draw at 21% and Arema at 26%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Madura United 2.29, Arema 1.59.
- Over 2.5 goals: 74% · both teams to score: 72%.
- Most likely score: 3–1 (7%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (6 and 7 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Madura United: form and key numbers
In style Madura United take players on, create plenty of chances.
- Shots: 12.5 a match, 4.7 on target.
- Possession: 48.2% on average.
- Clean sheets: 33% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.3 a match.
- Discipline: 1.2 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.58.
Arema: form and key numbers
In style Arema are happy without the ball, create plenty of chances.
- Shots: 8.9 a match, 4.0 on target.
- Possession: 42.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 29% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 71% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.1 a match.
- Discipline: 1.9 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.53.
Madura United vs Arema: season averages side by side
| Madura United | Per match this season | Arema |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Matches | 7 |
| 1.8 | Goals scored | 2.3 |
| 1.2 | Goals conceded | 2.0 |
| 12.5 | Shots | 8.9 |
| 4.7 | On target | 4.0 |
| 48.2 | Possession % | 42.4 |
| 33% | Clean sheets % | 29% |
| 50% | Both teams scored % | 71% |
| 4.3 | Corners | 5.1 |
| 1.2 | Yellow cards | 1.9 |
| 6.58 | Average rating | 6.53 |
Players to watch
Madura United
- Angga Saputra GK · Ball-playing keeper · Moneyball Score 9 · Secure passer, Shot-stopper (top 5% of his position)
- Dimitar Mitkov CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 4 · Accurate shooter, Takes high-quality shots (top 42% of his position)
Arema
- Adi Satryo GK · Ball-playing keeper · Moneyball Score 9 · Secure passer, Dominant in the air (top 14% of his position)
- Matheus Blade DMF · Deep-lying playmaker · Moneyball Score 3 · Secure passer, Hard to dribble past (top 44% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Ilhamsyah
Ilhamsyah, 27 · Madura United · DMF · Deep-lying playmaker · Moneyball Score 4
Ilhamsyah, 27, plays as a defensive midfielder for Madura United in Liga 1 Indonesia. Strongest for his role in pass accuracy and dribbled past. Weakest in fouls committed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every defensive midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average defensive midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- DM · Defensive midfielder Natural, 4
- CM · Central midfielder Natural, 4
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Pass accuracy | 92% | 86% |
| Dribbled past | 0.00 / 90 | 37% |
| Blocked shots | 0.51 / 90 | 5% |
| Dispossessed | 0.34 / 90 | 2% |
| Tackles | 0.00 / 90 | 0% |
Roles he suits
- ★½ Deep-lying playmaker Defensive midfielder
- ½ Ball-winning midfielder Central midfielder
- ½ Anchor Defensive midfielder
Scout's notes: Secure passer.
- What Ilhamsyah is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Madura United vs Arema prediction
Madura United should have more of the ball, with Arema likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Madura United like to take players on. Moneyball's model expects about 3.9 goals - 2.29 for Madura United and 1.59 for Arema - with over 2.5 goals at 74% and both teams scoring at 72%. Madura United have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Madura United 3-1 Arema
Madura United vs Arema betting tips
- Tip 1: Madura United win or draw (double chance) 74% between them
- Tip 2: Over 3.5 goals 54% by the model, 3.88 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 72% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 5.0 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 9.5 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Liga 1 Indonesia previews
- Persija vs Persik Kediri Monday 26 October 2026
- Bhayangkara vs PSM Monday 26 October 2026
- Persebaya Surabaya vs Madura United Monday 26 October 2026
- PSS Sleman vs Borneo Tuesday 27 October 2026
- Malut United vs Bhayangkara Friday 30 October 2026
- Persebaya Surabaya vs Persijap Friday 30 October 2026
- Arema vs Bali United Saturday 31 October 2026
- PSM vs Madura United Saturday 31 October 2026
Madura United vs Arema: questions and answers
When is Madura United vs Arema?
Madura United vs Arema is on Friday 6 November 2026, kick-off 12:00 UTC, in Liga 1 Indonesia Gameweek 9.
Where is Madura United vs Arema played?
At Gelora Madura Ratu Pamelingan Stadium, Pamekasan, Madura United's home ground.
Who will win Madura United vs Arema?
Madura United are the favourites: Madura United 53%, draw 21%, Arema 26%. Our prediction is Madura United 3-1 Arema.
Who is the player to watch in Madura United vs Arema?
Ilhamsyah of Madura United: a deep-lying playmaker with a Moneyball Score of 4 against every defensive midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Madura United vs Arema?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.9 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 74%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.