Marítimo vs Santa Clara Prediction and Betting Tips | Liga Portugal Gameweek 10
Liga Portugal · Sunday 1 November 2026 · 18:00 UTC · Campo da Imaculada Conceição, Ilha da Madeira · updated 2026-10-25
Marítimo welcome Santa Clara to Campo da Imaculada Conceição in Ilha da Madeira in Liga Portugal Gameweek 10 action on Sunday 1 November 2026, kick-off 18:00 UTC.
Marítimo have played 9 matches in Liga Portugal this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 2.1 goals a game and winning 22% of them. At home they average 1.0 goals scored and 1.8 conceded over 4 matches, with a 50% win rate. Santa Clara have played 8 matches in Liga Portugal this season, scoring 1.5 and conceding 0.5 goals a game and winning 63% of them. Away from home they average 1.3 goals scored and 0.5 conceded over 4 matches, with a 60% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Santa Clara are narrow favourites at 56%, with the draw at 27% and Marítimo at 17%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Marítimo 0.75, Santa Clara 1.56.
- Over 2.5 goals: 41% · both teams to score: 42%.
- Most likely score: 0–2 (12%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (9 and 8 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Marítimo: form and key numbers
In style Marítimo are happy without the ball, play long and direct, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 0.86 a match created, 1.48 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.3).
- Shots: 10.0 a match, 3.1 on target.
- Possession: 44.2% on average.
- Clean sheets: 11% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 67% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.1 a match.
- Discipline: 1.9 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.66.
Santa Clara: form and key numbers
In style Santa Clara play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.37 a match created, 0.75 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.0).
- Shots: 13.3 a match, 3.5 on target.
- Possession: 47.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 63% of matches (40% away).
- Both teams scored in 38% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.1 a match.
- Discipline: 2.8 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.86.
Marítimo vs Santa Clara: season averages side by side
| Marítimo | Per match this season | Santa Clara |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Matches | 8 |
| 1.0 | Goals scored | 1.5 |
| 2.1 | Goals conceded | 0.5 |
| 0.86 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.37 |
| 1.48 | xG conceded | 0.75 |
| 10.0 | Shots | 13.3 |
| 3.1 | On target | 3.5 |
| 44.2 | Possession % | 47.4 |
| 11% | Clean sheets % | 63% |
| 67% | Both teams scored % | 38% |
| 3.1 | Corners | 4.1 |
| 1.9 | Yellow cards | 2.8 |
| 6.66 | Average rating | 6.86 |
Players to watch
Marítimo
- Francisco Barbosa Vieites GK · Sweeper keeper · Moneyball Score 50 · Dominant in the air, Shot-stopper (top 7% of his position)
- Martín Tejón LWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 39 · Draws fouls, Crosser (top 15% of his position)
Santa Clara
- Gonçalo Paciência CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 48 · High shot volume, Clinical finisher (top 31% of his position)
- Lucas França GK · Sweeper keeper · Moneyball Score 41 · Box defender, Secure passer (top 43% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Vinícius Lopes
Vinícius Lopes, 27 · Santa Clara · RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 50
Vinícius Lopes, 27, plays as a winger for Santa Clara in Liga Portugal. Strongest for his role in fouls won and key passes. Weakest in accurate crosses. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RW · Winger Natural, 50
- LW · Winger Accomplished, 47
- RM · Wide midfielder Competent, 29
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Fouls won | 2.71 / 90 | 84% |
| Key passes | 2.26 / 90 | 65% |
| Expected goals | 0.28 / 90 | 57% |
| Successful dribbles | 1.81 / 90 | 56% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.24 / 90 | 56% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Pressing forward Centre-forward
- ★★★½ Dribbling forward Second striker
- ★★½ Creative winger Winger
Scout's notes: Draws fouls.
- What Vinícius Lopes is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Vinícius Lopes's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Marítimo vs Santa Clara prediction
Santa Clara should have more of the ball; Marítimo are a threat in the air and from set pieces; Santa Clara go long and direct. Moneyball's model expects about 2.3 goals - 0.75 for Marítimo and 1.56 for Santa Clara - with over 2.5 goals at 41% and both teams scoring at 42%. Santa Clara have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Marítimo 0-2 Santa Clara
Marítimo vs Santa Clara betting tips
- Tip 1: Santa Clara to win 56% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- Tip 2: Under 2.5 goals 59% by the model, 2.31 goals expected
- Tip 3: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 5.6 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Under 10.5 corners 7.2 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Liga Portugal previews
- Estoril vs Moreirense Sunday 25 October 2026
- Rio Ave vs Famalicão Sunday 25 October 2026
- Nacional vs Sporting Braga Sunday 25 October 2026
- Sporting CP vs Academico Viseu Sunday 25 October 2026
- Santa Clara vs Benfica Monday 26 October 2026
- Casa Pia vs Sporting CP Friday 30 October 2026
- Moreirense vs Estrela Amadora Saturday 31 October 2026
- Porto vs Estoril Saturday 31 October 2026
Marítimo vs Santa Clara: questions and answers
When is Marítimo vs Santa Clara?
Marítimo vs Santa Clara is on Sunday 1 November 2026, kick-off 18:00 UTC, in Liga Portugal Gameweek 10.
Where is Marítimo vs Santa Clara played?
At Campo da Imaculada Conceição, Ilha da Madeira, Marítimo's home ground.
Who will win Marítimo vs Santa Clara?
Santa Clara are the favourites: Marítimo 17%, draw 27%, Santa Clara 56%. Our prediction is Marítimo 0-2 Santa Clara.
Who is the player to watch in Marítimo vs Santa Clara?
Vinícius Lopes of Santa Clara: a creative winger with a Moneyball Score of 50 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Marítimo vs Santa Clara?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 41%.
Tags
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