Marseille vs Olympiacos Prediction and Betting Tips | UEFA Europa League Gameweek 2
UEFA Europa League · Thursday 15 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-10
Marseille welcome Olympiacos to Stade Vélodrome in Marseille in UEFA Europa League Gameweek 2 action on Thursday 15 October 2026.
Marseille have played 5 matches in UEFA Europa League this season, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.6 goals a game and winning 20% of them. At home they average 2.3 goals scored and 1.7 conceded over 3 matches, with a 100% win rate. Olympiacos have played 2 matches in UEFA Europa League this season, scoring 0.5 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 0% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 1 match, with a 0% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, there is little to separate them: Marseille 41%, the draw 27%, Olympiacos 31%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (12.2% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Marseille -0.25 at 1.93, Olympiacos at 1.96. The main goals line is 2.75: over 1.86, under 2.00, which gives over 52%.
Marseille: form and key numbers
In style Marseille keep the ball, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.65 a match created, 2.11 conceded (goals minus xG: -1.2).
- Shots: 13.2 a match, 4.8 on target.
- Possession: 56.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 20% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 40% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.6 a match.
- Discipline: 1.6 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.87.
Olympiacos: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 0.85 a match created (goals minus xG: -0.7).
- Shots: 10.5 a match, 3.5 on target.
- Possession: 50.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 50% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.5 a match.
- Discipline: 3.0 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.73.
Marseille vs Olympiacos: season averages side by side
| Marseille | Per match | Olympiacos |
|---|---|---|
| 1.65 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.85 |
| 2.11 | xG conceded | – |
| 1.40 | Goals | 0.50 |
| 13.2 | Shots | 10.5 |
| 4.8 | Shots on target | 3.5 |
| 1.8 | Big chances missed | 1.0 |
| 51.9 | Pressure share % | – |
| 13.6 | Tackles | 24.0 |
| 9.6 | Fouls | 15.0 |
| 1.6 | Yellow cards | 3.0 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 5 and 2 measured matches.
Marseille vs Olympiacos: head-to-head stats and key numbers
- Marseille have won 2, drawn 0 and lost 2 of the last 4 meetings in our data.
- Goals in those games: Marseille 3, Olympiacos 3 - 1.5 a match.
- The most recent meeting finished Marseille 2-1 Olympiacos (December 1st 2020).
Head to head
In their last 4 meetings Marseille won 2, drew 0 and lost 2.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Dec 2020 | Marseille | 2 – 1 | Olympiacos |
| 21 Oct 2020 | Olympiacos | 1 – 0 | Marseille |
| 23 Nov 2011 | Marseille | 0 – 1 | Olympiacos |
| 13 Sep 2011 | Olympiacos | 0 – 1 | Marseille |
Players to watch
Marseille
- CJ Egan-Riley CB · Ball-playing centre-back · Moneyball Score 64 · Secure passer, Disciplined (top 13% of his position)
- Jeffrey de Lange GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 63 · Shot-stopper, Secure passer (top 14% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Emerson
Emerson, 32 · Olympique Marseille · LB · Inverted full-back · Moneyball Score 67
Emerson, 32, plays as a full-back for Olympique Marseille in Ligue 1. Strongest for his role in passes and expected assists (est.). Weakest in tackles. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every full-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average full-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LB · Full-back Natural, 67
- RB · Full-back Accomplished, 63
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Passes | 59.39 / 90 | 93% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.16 / 90 | 88% |
| Accurate crosses | 0.81 / 90 | 86% |
| Successful dribbles | 1.01 / 90 | 83% |
| Pass accuracy | 88% | 76% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Inverted full-back Full-back
- ★★★½ Attacking full-back Full-back
- ★★½ Defensive full-back Full-back
Scout's notes: Ball circulator, Creator, Crosser.
- What Emerson is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Marseille vs Olympiacos prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals - 1.45 for Marseille and 1.24 for Olympiacos - with over 2.5 goals at 50% and both teams scoring at 55%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Marseille 1-1 Olympiacos
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Marseille vs Olympiacos betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 41%
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.69 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (50%)
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 55% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 6.6 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 9.1 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
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Marseille vs Olympiacos: questions and answers
When is Marseille vs Olympiacos?
Marseille vs Olympiacos is on Thursday 15 October 2026, in UEFA Europa League Gameweek 2.
Where is Marseille vs Olympiacos played?
At Stade Vélodrome, Marseille, Marseille's home ground.
Who will win Marseille vs Olympiacos?
It is close: Marseille 41%, draw 27%, Olympiacos 31%. Our prediction is Marseille 1-1 Olympiacos.
Who is the player to watch in Marseille vs Olympiacos?
Emerson of Olympique Marseille: a inverted full-back with a Moneyball Score of 67 against every full-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Marseille vs Olympiacos?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.7 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 50%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.