Nacional vs Academico Viseu Prediction and Betting Tips | Liga Portugal Gameweek 11
Liga Portugal · Saturday 7 November 2026 · 15:30 UTC · Estádio da Madeira, Ilha da Madeira · updated 2026-10-25
Nacional welcome Academico Viseu to Estádio da Madeira in Ilha da Madeira in Liga Portugal Gameweek 11 action on Saturday 7 November 2026, kick-off 15:30 UTC.
Nacional have played 8 matches in Liga Portugal this season, scoring 1.1 and conceding 2.3 goals a game and winning 13% of them. At home they average 1.3 goals scored and 2.5 conceded over 4 matches, with a 100% win rate. Academico Viseu have played 8 matches in Liga Portugal this season, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 50% of them. Away from home they average 1.8 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 4 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Nacional 35%, the draw 25%, Academico Viseu 40%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Nacional 1.45, Academico Viseu 1.57.
- Over 2.5 goals: 58% · both teams to score: 61%.
- Most likely score: 1–2 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (8 and 8 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Nacional: form and key numbers
In style Nacional play long and direct, cross a lot, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.20 a match created, 1.75 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.6).
- Shots: 10.9 a match, 3.1 on target.
- Possession: 49.9% on average.
- Clean sheets: 13% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.4 a match.
- Discipline: 1.3 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.68.
Academico Viseu: form and key numbers
In style Academico Viseu play long and direct.
- Expected goals: 1.21 a match created, 1.77 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.3).
- Shots: 9.9 a match, 3.4 on target.
- Possession: 47.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 25% of matches (100% away).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 2.6 a match.
- Discipline: 2.9 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.80.
Nacional vs Academico Viseu: season averages side by side
| Nacional | Per match this season | Academico Viseu |
|---|---|---|
| 8 | Matches | 8 |
| 1.1 | Goals scored | 1.4 |
| 2.3 | Goals conceded | 1.3 |
| 1.20 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.21 |
| 1.75 | xG conceded | 1.77 |
| 10.9 | Shots | 9.9 |
| 3.1 | On target | 3.4 |
| 49.9 | Possession % | 47.3 |
| 13% | Clean sheets % | 25% |
| 50% | Both teams scored % | 50% |
| 4.4 | Corners | 2.6 |
| 1.3 | Yellow cards | 2.9 |
| 6.68 | Average rating | 6.80 |
Players to watch
Nacional
- Ze Vitor CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 46 · Long passer, Dominant in the air (top 8% of his position)
- Liziero CMF · Ball-winning midfielder · Moneyball Score 43 · Reads the game, Gets into scoring positions (top 18% of his position)
Academico Viseu
- Ewerton GK · Sweeper keeper · Moneyball Score 77 · Box defender, Long passer (top 15% of his position)
- Alejandro Mestanza AMF · Dribbling playmaker · Moneyball Score 46 · Press-resistant, Through-ball threat (top 26% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Robinho
Robinho, 29 · Academico Viseu · RB · Attacking full-back · Moneyball Score 46
Robinho, 29, plays as a full-back for Academico Viseu in Liga Portugal. Strongest for his role in successful dribbles and interceptions. Weakest in dribbled past. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every full-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average full-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RB · Full-back Natural, 46
- RWB · Wing-back Accomplished, 35
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Successful dribbles | 1.29 / 90 | 95% |
| Interceptions | 2.07 / 90 | 88% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.12 / 90 | 65% |
| Accurate crosses | 0.52 / 90 | 58% |
| Duels won | 5.04 / 90 | 46% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★ Attacking full-back Full-back
- ★★½ Defensive full-back Full-back
- ★½ Complete wing-back Wing-back
Scout's notes: Dribbler, Reads the game.
- What Robinho is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Nacional vs Academico Viseu prediction
Nacional should have more of the ball; Nacional are a threat in the air and from set pieces; Academico Viseu go long and direct. Moneyball's model expects about 3.0 goals - 1.45 for Nacional and 1.57 for Academico Viseu - with over 2.5 goals at 58% and both teams scoring at 61%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Nacional 1-1 Academico Viseu
Nacional vs Academico Viseu betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 40%
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 58% by the model, 3.02 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 61% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 5.1 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Under 10.5 corners 7.0 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Liga Portugal previews
- Estoril vs Moreirense Sunday 25 October 2026
- Rio Ave vs Famalicão Sunday 25 October 2026
- Nacional vs Sporting Braga Sunday 25 October 2026
- Sporting CP vs Academico Viseu Sunday 25 October 2026
- Santa Clara vs Benfica Monday 26 October 2026
- Casa Pia vs Sporting CP Friday 30 October 2026
- Moreirense vs Estrela Amadora Saturday 31 October 2026
- Porto vs Estoril Saturday 31 October 2026
Nacional vs Academico Viseu: questions and answers
When is Nacional vs Academico Viseu?
Nacional vs Academico Viseu is on Saturday 7 November 2026, kick-off 15:30 UTC, in Liga Portugal Gameweek 11.
Where is Nacional vs Academico Viseu played?
At Estádio da Madeira, Ilha da Madeira, Nacional's home ground.
Who will win Nacional vs Academico Viseu?
It is close: Nacional 35%, draw 25%, Academico Viseu 40%. Our prediction is Nacional 1-1 Academico Viseu.
Who is the player to watch in Nacional vs Academico Viseu?
Robinho of Academico Viseu: a attacking full-back with a Moneyball Score of 46 against every full-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Nacional vs Academico Viseu?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.0 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 58%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.