NEC Nijmegen vs Rennes Prediction and Stats | Europa League Gameweek 5
Europa League · Thursday 26 November 2026 · 20:00 UTC · Goffertstadion, Nijmegen · updated 2026-11-13
NEC Nijmegen welcome Rennes to Goffertstadion in Nijmegen in Europa League Gameweek 5 action on Thursday 26 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC.
NEC Nijmegen have played 4 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 2.0 and conceding 2.3 goals a game and winning 50% of them. At home they average 2.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 50% win rate. Rennes have played 4 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 0.8 goals a game and winning 25% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 2 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: NEC Nijmegen 38%, the draw 22%, Rennes 40%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: NEC Nijmegen 1.90, Rennes 1.97.
- Over 2.5 goals: 74% · both teams to score: 74%.
- Most likely score: 1–3 (5%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (4 and 10 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
NEC Nijmegen: form and key numbers
In style NEC Nijmegen keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.61 a match created (goals minus xG: +1.6).
- Shots: 15.8 a match, 6.5 on target.
- Possession: 52.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 75% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.5 a match.
- Discipline: 1.3 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.83.
Rennes: form and key numbers
In style Rennes cross a lot, create plenty of chances.
- Expected goals: 1.56 a match created (goals minus xG: -2.2).
- Shots: 18.3 a match, 5.8 on target.
- Possession: 54.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 50% of matches (50% away).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.3 a match.
- Discipline: 1.3 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.94.
NEC Nijmegen vs Rennes: season averages side by side
| NEC Nijmegen | Per match this season | Rennes |
|---|---|---|
| 4 | Matches | 4 |
| 2.0 | Goals scored | 1.0 |
| 2.3 | Goals conceded | 0.8 |
| 1.61 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.56 |
| 15.8 | Shots | 18.3 |
| 6.5 | On target | 5.8 |
| 52.0 | Possession % | 54.3 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 50% |
| 75% | Both teams scored % | 50% |
| 3.5 | Corners | 6.3 |
| 1.3 | Yellow cards | 1.3 |
| 6.83 | Average rating | 6.94 |
Players to watch
NEC Nijmegen
- Clement Mutahi Bischoff WF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 54 · Chance creator, Draws fouls (top 15% of his position)
- Darko Nejasmic DMF · Anchor · Moneyball Score 54 · Disciplined, Blocks shots (top 4% of his position)
Rennes
- Abdelhamid Ait Boudlal CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 71 · Reads the game, Duel winner (top 1% of his position)
- Estéban Lepaul CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 69 · High shot volume, Gets into scoring positions (top 4% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Mahamadou Nagida
Mahamadou Nagida, 21 · Rennes · LWB · Complete wing-back · Moneyball Score 72
Mahamadou Nagida, 21, plays as a wing-back for Rennes in Ligue 1. Strongest for his role in interceptions and successful dribbles. Weakest in dribbled past. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every wing-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average wing-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LB · Full-back Natural, 72
- LWB · Wing-back Natural, 72
- RB · Full-back Accomplished, 69
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Interceptions | 2.40 / 90 | 99% |
| Successful dribbles | 1.65 / 90 | 97% |
| Duels won | 6.60 / 90 | 90% |
| Tackles | 2.85 / 90 | 86% |
| Accurate crosses | 1.35 / 90 | 68% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Attacking full-back Full-back
- ★★★★½ Defensive full-back Full-back
- ★★★★½ Two-way wide midfielder Wide midfielder
Scout's notes: Reads the game, Dribbler, Duel winner.
- What Mahamadou Nagida is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Mahamadou Nagida's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
NEC Nijmegen vs Rennes prediction
NEC Nijmegen should have more of the ball; NEC Nijmegen are a threat in the air and from set pieces; Rennes work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 3.9 goals - 1.90 for NEC Nijmegen and 1.97 for Rennes - with over 2.5 goals at 74% and both teams scoring at 74%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: NEC Nijmegen 2-2 Rennes
NEC Nijmegen vs Rennes: what the numbers say
- 1. A draw or either side by one goal is the likeliest shape no side above 40%
- 2. 4 or more goals 54% by the model, 3.87 goals expected
- 3. Both teams to score: yes 74% by the model
- 4. 4 cards or fewer the two sides average 2.5 cards a match between them
- 5. 9 or more corners 9.8 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
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NEC Nijmegen vs Rennes: questions and answers
When is NEC Nijmegen vs Rennes?
NEC Nijmegen vs Rennes is on Thursday 26 November 2026, kick-off 20:00 UTC, in Europa League Gameweek 5.
Where is NEC Nijmegen vs Rennes played?
At Goffertstadion, Nijmegen, NEC Nijmegen's home ground.
Who will win NEC Nijmegen vs Rennes?
It is close: NEC Nijmegen 38%, draw 22%, Rennes 40%. Our prediction is NEC Nijmegen 2-2 Rennes.
Who is the player to watch in NEC Nijmegen vs Rennes?
Mahamadou Nagida of Rennes: a complete wing-back with a Moneyball Score of 72 against every wing-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in NEC Nijmegen vs Rennes?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.9 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 74%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.