Nice vs Troyes Prediction and Stats | Ligue 1 Gameweek 12
Ligue 1 · Saturday 28 November 2026 · 19:45 UTC · Allianz Riviera, Nice · updated 2026-11-14
Nice welcome Troyes to Allianz Riviera in Nice in Ligue 1 Gameweek 12 action on Saturday 28 November 2026, kick-off 19:45 UTC.
Nice have played 10 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 1.5 and conceding 1.2 goals a game and winning 50% of them. At home they average 2.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 5 matches, with a 60% win rate. Troyes have played 10 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 0.7 and conceding 1.7 goals a game and winning 20% of them. Away from home they average 0.4 goals scored and 1.2 conceded over 5 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Nice are narrow favourites at 53%, with the draw at 26% and Troyes at 21%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Nice 1.65, Troyes 0.94.
- Over 2.5 goals: 48% · both teams to score: 50%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (10 and 10 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Nice: form and key numbers
In style Nice keep the ball.
- Expected goals: 1.31 a match created, 1.47 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.9).
- Shots: 12.4 a match, 4.4 on target.
- Possession: 52.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 20% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 60% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.5 a match.
- Discipline: 2.4 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.86.
Troyes: form and key numbers
In style Troyes are happy without the ball, play long and direct, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.23 a match created, 1.46 conceded (goals minus xG: -5.3).
- Shots: 13.1 a match, 3.3 on target.
- Possession: 37.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 30% of matches (33% away).
- Both teams scored in 30% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.7 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.75.
Nice vs Troyes: season averages side by side
| Nice | Per match this season | Troyes |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Matches | 10 |
| 1.5 | Goals scored | 0.7 |
| 1.2 | Goals conceded | 1.7 |
| 1.31 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.23 |
| 1.47 | xG conceded | 1.46 |
| 12.4 | Shots | 13.1 |
| 4.4 | On target | 3.3 |
| 52.8 | Possession % | 37.7 |
| 20% | Clean sheets % | 30% |
| 60% | Both teams scored % | 30% |
| 5.5 | Corners | 5.7 |
| 2.4 | Yellow cards | 1.8 |
| 6.86 | Average rating | 6.75 |
Players to watch
Nice
- Yehvann Diouf GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 63 · Shot-stopper, Dominant in the air (top 30% of his position)
- Jonathan Clauss RWB · Attacking wing-back · Moneyball Score 57 · Creator, Crosser (top 11% of his position)
Troyes
- Anis Ouzenadji LB · Attacking full-back · Moneyball Score 64 · Dribbler, Reads the game (top 14% of his position)
- Hugo Picard LMF · Wide playmaker · Moneyball Score 58 · Crosser, Chance creator (top 2% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Elye Wahi
Elye Wahi, 23 · Nice · CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 60
Elye Wahi, 23, plays as a centre-forward for Nice in Ligue 1. Strongest for his role in shot quality (xG per shot) and shots on target. Weakest in big chances missed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 60
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 56
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.25 xG/shot | 98% |
| Shots on target | 57% | 90% |
| Expected goals | 0.67 / 90 | 85% |
| Goals, luck taken out | 0.70 / 90 | 84% |
| Shots | 2.72 / 90 | 41% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★★★★ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★½ Complete forward Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Takes high-quality shots, Accurate shooter, Gets into scoring positions.
- What Elye Wahi is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Nice vs Troyes prediction
Nice should have more of the ball, with Troyes likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Troyes work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 2.6 goals - 1.65 for Nice and 0.94 for Troyes - with over 2.5 goals at 48% and both teams scoring at 50%. Nice have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Nice 2-1 Troyes
Nice vs Troyes: what the numbers say
- 1. Nice unbeaten (win or draw) 79% between them
- 2. 2 goals or fewer 52% by the model, 2.59 goals expected
- 3. 4 or more cards the two sides average 4.2 cards a match between them
- 4. 10 or more corners 11.2 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
More Ligue 1 previews
- Troyes vs Le Havre Friday 20 November 2026
- Nice vs Paris Saint Germain Saturday 21 November 2026
- Strasbourg vs Brest Saturday 21 November 2026
- Monaco vs Auxerre Saturday 21 November 2026
- LOSC Lille vs Olympique Lyonnais Saturday 21 November 2026
- Lens vs Toulouse Saturday 21 November 2026
- Paris vs Angers SCO Sunday 22 November 2026
- Lorient vs Rennes Sunday 22 November 2026
Nice vs Troyes: questions and answers
When is Nice vs Troyes?
Nice vs Troyes is on Saturday 28 November 2026, kick-off 19:45 UTC, in Ligue 1 Gameweek 12.
Where is Nice vs Troyes played?
At Allianz Riviera, Nice, Nice's home ground.
Who will win Nice vs Troyes?
Nice are the favourites: Nice 53%, draw 26%, Troyes 21%. Our prediction is Nice 2-1 Troyes.
Who is the player to watch in Nice vs Troyes?
Elye Wahi of Nice: a poacher with a Moneyball Score of 60 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Nice vs Troyes?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.6 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 48%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.