Paris Saint Germain vs Lorient Prediction and Stats | Ligue 1 Gameweek 12
Ligue 1 · Saturday 28 November 2026 · 19:45 UTC · Parc des Princes, Paris · updated 2026-11-14
Paris Saint Germain welcome Lorient to Parc des Princes in Paris in Ligue 1 Gameweek 12 action on Saturday 28 November 2026, kick-off 19:45 UTC.
Paris Saint Germain have played 10 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 2.2 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 70% of them. At home they average 1.8 goals scored and 0.8 conceded over 4 matches, with a 43% win rate. Lorient have played 10 matches in Ligue 1 this season, scoring 0.9 and conceding 0.8 goals a game and winning 40% of them. Away from home they average 0.8 goals scored and 0.4 conceded over 5 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Paris Saint Germain are narrow favourites at 56%, with the draw at 25% and Lorient at 18%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Paris Saint Germain 1.68, Lorient 0.86.
- Over 2.5 goals: 46% · both teams to score: 47%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (10 and 10 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model.
Paris Saint Germain: form and key numbers
In style Paris Saint Germain keep the ball, press high, take players on.
- Expected goals: 2.28 a match created, 1.15 conceded (goals minus xG: -0.8).
- Shots: 19.3 a match, 7.8 on target.
- Possession: 68.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 30% of matches (67% at home).
- Both teams scored in 70% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.5 a match.
- Discipline: 1.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.09.
Lorient: form and key numbers
In style Lorient cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.19 a match created, 1.14 conceded (goals minus xG: -2.9).
- Shots: 10.0 a match, 2.8 on target.
- Possession: 47.2% on average.
- Clean sheets: 60% of matches (67% away).
- Both teams scored in 30% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.3 a match.
- Discipline: 1.3 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.91.
Paris Saint Germain vs Lorient: season averages side by side
| Paris Saint Germain | Per match this season | Lorient |
|---|---|---|
| 10 | Matches | 10 |
| 2.2 | Goals scored | 0.9 |
| 1.0 | Goals conceded | 0.8 |
| 2.28 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.19 |
| 1.15 | xG conceded | 1.14 |
| 19.3 | Shots | 10.0 |
| 7.8 | On target | 2.8 |
| 68.8 | Possession % | 47.2 |
| 30% | Clean sheets % | 60% |
| 70% | Both teams scored % | 30% |
| 5.5 | Corners | 3.3 |
| 1.0 | Yellow cards | 1.3 |
| 7.09 | Average rating | 6.91 |
Players to watch
Paris Saint Germain
- Fabián Ruiz CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 82 · Ball circulator, Long passer (top 2% of his position)
- João Neves CMF · Ball-winning midfielder · Moneyball Score 80 · Ball-winner, Gets into scoring positions (top 2% of his position)
Lorient
- Arthur Avom CMF · Ball-winning midfielder · Moneyball Score 72 · Ball-winner, Long passer (top 6% of his position)
- Isaak Touré CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 63 · Secure passer, Reads the game (top 13% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Désiré Doué
Désiré Doué, 21 · Paris Saint Germain · RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 86
Désiré Doué, 21, plays as a winger for Paris Saint Germain in Ligue 1. Strongest for his role in shots and expected assists (est.). Weakest in dispossessed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RW · Winger Natural, 86
- LW · Winger Accomplished, 83
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Accomplished, 82
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shots | 4.61 / 90 | 98% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.31 / 90 | 97% |
| Key passes | 2.56 / 90 | 96% |
| Big chances created | 0.51 / 90 | 96% |
| Accurate crosses | 0.85 / 90 | 92% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★★ Creative winger Winger
- ★★★★½ Wide playmaker Wide midfielder
- ★★★★½ Inside forward Winger
Scout's notes: High shot volume, Creator, Chance creator.
- What Désiré Doué is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Désiré Doué's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Paris Saint Germain vs Lorient prediction
Paris Saint Germain should have more of the ball, with Lorient likely to sit in a compact block and look to break; Paris Saint Germain like to take players on; Lorient work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 2.5 goals - 1.68 for Paris Saint Germain and 0.86 for Lorient - with over 2.5 goals at 46% and both teams scoring at 47%. Paris Saint Germain have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Paris Saint Germain 2-1 Lorient
Paris Saint Germain vs Lorient: what the numbers say
- 1. Paris Saint Germain win, the likeliest result 56% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- 2. 2 goals or fewer 54% by the model, 2.53 goals expected
- 3. 4 cards or fewer the two sides average 2.3 cards a match between them
- 4. 9 or more corners 8.8 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties.
The full analysis
Moneyball reads every match in full: win, draw and loss, the most likely scores, goals and both teams to score, with the players who decide it.
More Ligue 1 previews
- Troyes vs Le Havre Friday 20 November 2026
- Nice vs Paris Saint Germain Saturday 21 November 2026
- Strasbourg vs Brest Saturday 21 November 2026
- Monaco vs Auxerre Saturday 21 November 2026
- LOSC Lille vs Olympique Lyonnais Saturday 21 November 2026
- Lens vs Toulouse Saturday 21 November 2026
- Paris vs Angers SCO Sunday 22 November 2026
- Lorient vs Rennes Sunday 22 November 2026
Paris Saint Germain vs Lorient: questions and answers
When is Paris Saint Germain vs Lorient?
Paris Saint Germain vs Lorient is on Saturday 28 November 2026, kick-off 19:45 UTC, in Ligue 1 Gameweek 12.
Where is Paris Saint Germain vs Lorient played?
At Parc des Princes, Paris, Paris Saint Germain's home ground.
Who will win Paris Saint Germain vs Lorient?
Paris Saint Germain are the favourites: Paris Saint Germain 56%, draw 25%, Lorient 18%. Our prediction is Paris Saint Germain 2-1 Lorient.
Who is the player to watch in Paris Saint Germain vs Lorient?
Désiré Doué of Paris Saint Germain: a creative winger with a Moneyball Score of 86 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Paris Saint Germain vs Lorient?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.5 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 46%.
Tags
Moneyball is a football statistics site. No model predicts football reliably: every figure is an estimate.