Persija vs Persebaya Surabaya Prediction and Betting Tips | Liga 1 Indonesia Gameweek 9
Liga 1 Indonesia · Saturday 7 November 2026 · 12:00 UTC · Stadion Utama Gelora Bung Karno, Jakarta · updated 2026-10-25
Persija welcome Persebaya Surabaya to Stadion Utama Gelora Bung Karno in Jakarta in Liga 1 Indonesia Gameweek 9 action on Saturday 7 November 2026, kick-off 12:00 UTC.
Persija have played 6 matches in Liga 1 Indonesia this season, scoring 2.5 and conceding 0.8 goals a game and winning 83% of them. At home they average 2.7 goals scored and 0.7 conceded over 3 matches, with a 60% win rate. Persebaya Surabaya have played 6 matches in Liga 1 Indonesia this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 0.8 goals a game and winning 33% of them. Away from home they average 0.7 goals scored and 0.7 conceded over 3 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Persija are narrow favourites at 58%, with the draw at 25% and Persebaya Surabaya at 17%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Persija 1.70, Persebaya Surabaya 0.80.
- Over 2.5 goals: 46% · both teams to score: 46%.
- Most likely score: 2–0 (12%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (6 and 6 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Persija: form and key numbers
In style Persija keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Shots: 11.8 a match, 5.2 on target.
- Possession: 61.2% on average.
- Clean sheets: 50% of matches (33% at home).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.2 a match.
- Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.53.
Persebaya Surabaya: form and key numbers
In style Persebaya Surabaya keep the ball, press high, play long and direct.
- Shots: 12.7 a match, 4.2 on target.
- Possession: 53.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 33% of matches (50% away).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 7.7 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.47.
Persija vs Persebaya Surabaya: season averages side by side
| Persija | Per match this season | Persebaya Surabaya |
|---|---|---|
| 6 | Matches | 6 |
| 2.5 | Goals scored | 1.0 |
| 0.8 | Goals conceded | 0.8 |
| 11.8 | Shots | 12.7 |
| 5.2 | On target | 4.2 |
| 61.2 | Possession % | 53.0 |
| 50% | Clean sheets % | 33% |
| 50% | Both teams scored % | 50% |
| 6.2 | Corners | 7.7 |
| 2.2 | Yellow cards | 1.8 |
| 6.53 | Average rating | 6.47 |
Players to watch
Persija
- Nadeo Argawinata GK · Ball-playing keeper · Moneyball Score 9 · Secure passer, Shot-stopper (top 1% of his position)
- Denis Kolinger CB · Ball-playing centre-back · Moneyball Score 3 · Secure passer, Hard to dribble past (top 25% of his position)
Persebaya Surabaya
- Ernando Ari GK · Ball-playing keeper · Moneyball Score 9 · Secure passer, Shot-stopper (top 1% of his position)
- Alex CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 4 · Accurate shooter, Takes high-quality shots (top 23% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Alexander Jeremejeff
Alexander Jeremejeff, 33 · Persija · CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 5
Alexander Jeremejeff, 33, plays as a centre-forward for Persija in Liga 1 Indonesia. Strongest for his role in shots on target and shot quality (xG per shot). Weakest in key passes. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 5
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Shots on target | 64% | 95% |
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | – | 55% |
| Goals | 0.87 / 90 | 8% |
| Big chances missed | 0.35 / 90 | 1% |
| Expected goals | 0.00 / 90 | 0% |
Roles he suits
- ★ Poacher Centre-forward
- ½ Shadow striker Second striker
- ½ Target man Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Accurate shooter.
⚠ 5 goals from only 0.0 xG: finishing this far above his chances rarely lasts: check it is not a one-season wonder.
- What Alexander Jeremejeff is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Alexander Jeremejeff's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Persija vs Persebaya Surabaya prediction
Persija should have more of the ball; both work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 2.5 goals - 1.70 for Persija and 0.80 for Persebaya Surabaya - with over 2.5 goals at 46% and both teams scoring at 46%. Persija have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Persija 2-0 Persebaya Surabaya
Persija vs Persebaya Surabaya betting tips
- Tip 1: Persija to win 58% on Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers
- Tip 2: Under 2.5 goals 54% by the model, 2.50 goals expected
- Tip 3: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 4.0 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Over 9.5 corners 13.8 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Liga 1 Indonesia previews
- Persija vs Persik Kediri Monday 26 October 2026
- Bhayangkara vs PSM Monday 26 October 2026
- Persebaya Surabaya vs Madura United Monday 26 October 2026
- PSS Sleman vs Borneo Tuesday 27 October 2026
- Malut United vs Bhayangkara Friday 30 October 2026
- Persebaya Surabaya vs Persijap Friday 30 October 2026
- Arema vs Bali United Saturday 31 October 2026
- PSM vs Madura United Saturday 31 October 2026
Persija vs Persebaya Surabaya: questions and answers
When is Persija vs Persebaya Surabaya?
Persija vs Persebaya Surabaya is on Saturday 7 November 2026, kick-off 12:00 UTC, in Liga 1 Indonesia Gameweek 9.
Where is Persija vs Persebaya Surabaya played?
At Stadion Utama Gelora Bung Karno, Jakarta, Persija's home ground.
Who will win Persija vs Persebaya Surabaya?
Persija are the favourites: Persija 58%, draw 25%, Persebaya Surabaya 17%. Our prediction is Persija 2-0 Persebaya Surabaya.
Who is the player to watch in Persija vs Persebaya Surabaya?
Alexander Jeremejeff of Persija: a poacher with a Moneyball Score of 5 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Persija vs Persebaya Surabaya?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.5 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 46%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.