Real Sociedad vs Olympique Lyonnais Prediction and Betting Tips | Europa League Gameweek 4
Europa League · Thursday 5 November 2026 · 17:45 UTC · Anoeta Stadium, San Sebastián · updated 2026-10-22
Real Sociedad welcome Olympique Lyonnais to Anoeta Stadium in San Sebastián in Europa League Gameweek 4 action on Thursday 5 November 2026, kick-off 17:45 UTC.
Real Sociedad have played 9 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 1.9 and conceding 1.9 goals a game and winning 56% of them. At home they average 1.3 goals scored and 1.5 conceded over 4 matches, with a 40% win rate. Olympique Lyonnais have played 7 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 1.9 and conceding 0.7 goals a game and winning 57% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 0.7 conceded over 3 matches, with a 25% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Olympique Lyonnais are narrow favourites at 51%, with the draw at 23% and Real Sociedad at 26%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Real Sociedad 1.36, Olympique Lyonnais 1.95.
- Over 2.5 goals: 64% · both teams to score: 64%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (10%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (9 and 7 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Real Sociedad: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.27 a match created, 1.79 conceded (goals minus xG: +5.6).
- Shots: 14.2 a match, 5.4 on target.
- Possession: 48.8% on average.
- Clean sheets: 11% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 67% of their matches.
- Corners: 7.0 a match.
- Discipline: 2.0 yellow cards a match, 3.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.81.
Olympique Lyonnais: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.73 a match created, 1.12 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.9).
- Shots: 12.6 a match, 4.9 on target.
- Possession: 51.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 43% of matches (67% away).
- Both teams scored in 57% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.3 a match.
- Discipline: 1.4 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.89.
Real Sociedad vs Olympique Lyonnais: season averages side by side
| Real Sociedad | Per match this season | Olympique Lyonnais |
|---|---|---|
| 9 | Matches | 7 |
| 1.9 | Goals scored | 1.9 |
| 1.9 | Goals conceded | 0.7 |
| 1.27 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.73 |
| 1.79 | xG conceded | 1.12 |
| 14.2 | Shots | 12.6 |
| 5.4 | On target | 4.9 |
| 48.8 | Possession % | 51.7 |
| 11% | Clean sheets % | 43% |
| 67% | Both teams scored % | 57% |
| 7.0 | Corners | 4.3 |
| 2.0 | Yellow cards | 1.4 |
| 6.81 | Average rating | 6.89 |
Players to watch
Real Sociedad
- Sergio Gómez LB · Inverted full-back · Moneyball Score 64 · Creator, Chance creator (top 9% of his position)
- Jon Martín Vicente CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 62 · Blocks shots, Secure passer (top 16% of his position)
Olympique Lyonnais
- Dominik Greif GK · Sweeper keeper · Moneyball Score 73 · Secure passer, Box defender (top 4% of his position)
- Corentin Tolisso CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 56 · Creator, Reads the game (top 5% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Ernest Nuamah
Ernest Nuamah, 22 · Olympique Lyonnais · RWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 67
Ernest Nuamah, 22, plays as a winger for Olympique Lyonnais in Ligue 1. Strongest for his role in expected goals and shots. Weakest in key passes. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every winger in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average winger, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- RW · Winger Natural, 67
- LW · Winger Accomplished, 63
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Expected goals | 0.53 / 90 | 93% |
| Shots | 3.33 / 90 | 82% |
| Successful dribbles | 2.14 / 90 | 73% |
| Big chances created | 0.48 / 90 | 72% |
| Accurate crosses | 0.95 / 90 | 68% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Inside forward Winger
- ★★★★ Shadow striker Attacking midfielder
- ★★★★ Dribbling forward Second striker
Scout's notes: Gets into scoring positions, High shot volume.
- What Ernest Nuamah is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Ernest Nuamah's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Real Sociedad vs Olympique Lyonnais prediction
Olympique Lyonnais should have more of the ball. Moneyball's model expects about 3.3 goals - 1.36 for Real Sociedad and 1.95 for Olympique Lyonnais - with over 2.5 goals at 64% and both teams scoring at 64%. Olympique Lyonnais have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Real Sociedad 1-2 Olympique Lyonnais
Real Sociedad vs Olympique Lyonnais betting tips
- Tip 1: Olympique Lyonnais win or draw (double chance) 74% between them
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 64% by the model, 3.31 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 64% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 7.4 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 11.3 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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Real Sociedad vs Olympique Lyonnais: questions and answers
When is Real Sociedad vs Olympique Lyonnais?
Real Sociedad vs Olympique Lyonnais is on Thursday 5 November 2026, kick-off 17:45 UTC, in Europa League Gameweek 4.
Where is Real Sociedad vs Olympique Lyonnais played?
At Anoeta Stadium, San Sebastián, Real Sociedad's home ground.
Who will win Real Sociedad vs Olympique Lyonnais?
Olympique Lyonnais are the favourites: Real Sociedad 26%, draw 23%, Olympique Lyonnais 51%. Our prediction is Real Sociedad 1-2 Olympique Lyonnais.
Who is the player to watch in Real Sociedad vs Olympique Lyonnais?
Ernest Nuamah of Olympique Lyonnais: a inside forward with a Moneyball Score of 67 against every winger in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Real Sociedad vs Olympique Lyonnais?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.3 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 64%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.