Rennes vs Olympiacos F.C. Prediction and Betting Tips | Europa League Gameweek 4
Europa League · Thursday 5 November 2026 · 17:45 UTC · Roazhon Park, Rennes · updated 2026-10-22
Rennes welcome Olympiacos F.C. to Roazhon Park in Rennes in Europa League Gameweek 4 action on Thursday 5 November 2026, kick-off 17:45 UTC.
Rennes have played 7 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 2.1 and conceding 2.0 goals a game and winning 57% of them. At home they average 2.5 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 4 matches, with a 75% win rate. Olympiacos F.C. have played 2 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 0.5 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 0% of them. Away from home they average 1.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over 1 match, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Rennes are narrow favourites at 48%, with the draw at 24% and Olympiacos F.C. at 28%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Rennes 1.82, Olympiacos F.C. 1.34.
- Over 2.5 goals: 61% · both teams to score: 62%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (11%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (7 and 2 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Rennes: form and key numbers
In style Rennes create plenty of chances.
- Expected goals: 1.99 a match created, 2.05 conceded (goals minus xG: +1.1).
- Shots: 16.3 a match, 6.3 on target.
- Possession: 51.6% on average.
- Clean sheets: 14% of matches (100% at home).
- Both teams scored in 71% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.9 a match.
- Discipline: 2.4 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.85.
Olympiacos F.C.: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 0.85 a match created (goals minus xG: -0.7).
- Shots: 10.5 a match, 3.5 on target.
- Possession: 50.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 50% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.5 a match.
- Discipline: 3.0 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.73.
Rennes vs Olympiacos F.C.: season averages side by side
| Rennes | Per match this season | Olympiacos F.C. |
|---|---|---|
| 7 | Matches | 2 |
| 2.1 | Goals scored | 0.5 |
| 2.0 | Goals conceded | 1.0 |
| 1.99 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.85 |
| 2.05 | xG conceded | – |
| 16.3 | Shots | 10.5 |
| 6.3 | On target | 3.5 |
| 51.6 | Possession % | 50.0 |
| 14% | Clean sheets % | 50% |
| 71% | Both teams scored % | 50% |
| 5.9 | Corners | 4.5 |
| 2.4 | Yellow cards | 3.0 |
| 6.85 | Average rating | 6.73 |
Players to watch
Rennes
- Ludovic Blas RMF · Wide playmaker · Moneyball Score 67 · Creator, Gets into scoring positions (top 4% of his position)
- Abdelhamid Ait Boudlal CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 67 · Ball-winner, Reads the game (top 6% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Estéban Lepaul
Estéban Lepaul, 26 · Rennes · CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 72
Estéban Lepaul, 26, plays as a centre-forward for Rennes in Ligue 1. Strongest for his role in expected goals and shots. Weakest in duels won. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 72
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Expected goals | 0.99 / 90 | 95% |
| Shots | 4.64 / 90 | 94% |
| Goals | 1.16 / 90 | 92% |
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.21 xG/shot | 88% |
| Shots on target | 57% | 86% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★★½ Poacher Centre-forward
- ★★★ Complete forward Centre-forward
Scout's notes: Gets into scoring positions, High shot volume, Clinical finisher.
- What Estéban Lepaul is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Estéban Lepaul's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Rennes vs Olympiacos F.C. prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 3.2 goals - 1.82 for Rennes and 1.34 for Olympiacos F.C. - with over 2.5 goals at 61% and both teams scoring at 62%. Rennes have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Rennes 2-1 Olympiacos F.C.
Rennes vs Olympiacos F.C. betting tips
- Tip 1: Rennes win or draw (double chance) 72% between them
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 61% by the model, 3.16 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 62% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 6.4 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 8.5 corners 10.4 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Europa League previews
- NEC Nijmegen vs Omonia Nicosia Thursday 5 November 2026
- AC Milan vs Ferencvárosi Thursday 5 November 2026
- Crystal Palace vs TSG Hoffenheim Thursday 5 November 2026
- Lillestrøm vs Viktoria Plzeň Thursday 5 November 2026
- Levski Sofia vs Jagiellonia Białystok Thursday 5 November 2026
- Sparta Praha vs AFC Bournemouth Thursday 5 November 2026
- Real Sociedad vs Olympique Lyonnais Thursday 5 November 2026
- Anderlecht vs Salzburg Thursday 5 November 2026
Rennes vs Olympiacos F.C.: questions and answers
When is Rennes vs Olympiacos F.C.?
Rennes vs Olympiacos F.C. is on Thursday 5 November 2026, kick-off 17:45 UTC, in Europa League Gameweek 4.
Where is Rennes vs Olympiacos F.C. played?
At Roazhon Park, Rennes, Rennes's home ground.
Who will win Rennes vs Olympiacos F.C.?
Rennes are the favourites: Rennes 48%, draw 24%, Olympiacos F.C. 28%. Our prediction is Rennes 2-1 Olympiacos F.C..
Who is the player to watch in Rennes vs Olympiacos F.C.?
Estéban Lepaul of Rennes: a poacher with a Moneyball Score of 72 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Rennes vs Olympiacos F.C.?
Moneyball's model expects about 3.2 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 61%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.