Sparta Praha vs AFC Bournemouth Prediction and Betting Tips | Europa League Gameweek 4
Europa League · Thursday 5 November 2026 · 17:45 UTC · TC Strahov, Praha · updated 2026-10-22
Sparta Praha welcome AFC Bournemouth to TC Strahov in Praha in Europa League Gameweek 4 action on Thursday 5 November 2026, kick-off 17:45 UTC.
Sparta Praha have played 2 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 1.0 and conceding 2.0 goals a game and winning 50% of them. At home they average 2.0 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 1 match, with a 100% win rate. AFC Bournemouth have played 7 matches in the Europa League this season, scoring 1.3 and conceding 1.9 goals a game and winning 14% of them. Away from home they average 1.3 goals scored and 3.0 conceded over 3 matches, with a 0% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, there is little to separate them: Sparta Praha 34%, the draw 26%, AFC Bournemouth 40%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Sparta Praha 1.41, AFC Bournemouth 1.54.
- Over 2.5 goals: 56% · both teams to score: 60%.
- Most likely score: 1–1 (12%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (2 and 7 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Sparta Praha: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 0.97 a match created (goals minus xG: +0.1).
- Shots: 7.5 a match, 2.0 on target.
- Possession: 48.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 0% of matches (0% at home).
- Both teams scored in 50% of their matches.
- Corners: 3.5 a match.
- Discipline: 1.5 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.59.
AFC Bournemouth: form and key numbers
In style AFC Bournemouth press high, play long and direct, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.70 a match created, 1.04 conceded (goals minus xG: -2.9).
- Shots: 15.1 a match, 5.1 on target.
- Possession: 50.4% on average.
- Clean sheets: 14% of matches (0% away).
- Both teams scored in 71% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.7 a match.
- Discipline: 3.0 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.76.
Sparta Praha vs AFC Bournemouth: season averages side by side
| Sparta Praha | Per match this season | AFC Bournemouth |
|---|---|---|
| 2 | Matches | 7 |
| 1.0 | Goals scored | 1.3 |
| 2.0 | Goals conceded | 1.9 |
| 0.97 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.70 |
| – | xG conceded | 1.04 |
| 7.5 | Shots | 15.1 |
| 2.0 | On target | 5.1 |
| 48.0 | Possession % | 50.4 |
| 0% | Clean sheets % | 14% |
| 50% | Both teams scored % | 71% |
| 3.5 | Corners | 4.7 |
| 1.5 | Yellow cards | 3.0 |
| 6.59 | Average rating | 6.76 |
Players to watch
AFC Bournemouth
- James Hill CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 67 · Long passer, Duel winner (top 3% of his position)
- António Silva CB · Box defender · Moneyball Score 64 · Dominant in the air, Box defender (top 4% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Adrien Truffert
Adrien Truffert, 24 · AFC Bournemouth · LB · Defensive full-back · Moneyball Score 73
Adrien Truffert, 24, plays as a full-back for AFC Bournemouth in the Premier League. Strongest for his role in tackles and accurate crosses. Weakest in dribbled past. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every full-back in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average full-back, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- LB · Full-back Natural, 73
- RB · Full-back Accomplished, 69
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Tackles | 3.03 / 90 | 92% |
| Accurate crosses | 0.87 / 90 | 90% |
| Interceptions | 1.44 / 90 | 81% |
| Key passes | 1.01 / 90 | 81% |
| Duels won | 5.19 / 90 | 78% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Defensive full-back Full-back
- ★★★★ Attacking full-back Full-back
- ★★★½ Inverted full-back Full-back
Scout's notes: Ball-winner, Crosser, Reads the game.
- What Adrien Truffert is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Adrien Truffert's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Sparta Praha vs AFC Bournemouth prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals - 1.41 for Sparta Praha and 1.54 for AFC Bournemouth - with over 2.5 goals at 56% and both teams scoring at 60%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Sparta Praha 1-1 AFC Bournemouth
Sparta Praha vs AFC Bournemouth betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 40%
- Tip 2: Over 2.5 goals 56% by the model, 2.95 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 60% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 5.5 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Under 10.5 corners 8.2 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
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Sparta Praha vs AFC Bournemouth: questions and answers
When is Sparta Praha vs AFC Bournemouth?
Sparta Praha vs AFC Bournemouth is on Thursday 5 November 2026, kick-off 17:45 UTC, in Europa League Gameweek 4.
Where is Sparta Praha vs AFC Bournemouth played?
At TC Strahov, Praha, Sparta Praha's home ground.
Who will win Sparta Praha vs AFC Bournemouth?
It is close: Sparta Praha 34%, draw 26%, AFC Bournemouth 40%. Our prediction is Sparta Praha 1-1 AFC Bournemouth.
Who is the player to watch in Sparta Praha vs AFC Bournemouth?
Adrien Truffert of AFC Bournemouth: a defensive full-back with a Moneyball Score of 73 against every full-back in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Sparta Praha vs AFC Bournemouth?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.9 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 56%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.