Riga FC vs Kairat Almaty Prediction and Betting Tips | UEFA Conference League Gameweek 1
UEFA Conference League · Thursday 15 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-10
Riga FC welcome Kairat Almaty to RTU stadions in Riga in UEFA Conference League Gameweek 1 action on Thursday 15 October 2026.
Riga FC have played 6 matches in UEFA Conference League this season, scoring 2.0 and conceding 1.0 goals a game and winning 67% of them. At home they average 2.7 goals scored and 1.0 conceded over 3 matches, with a 75% win rate. Kairat Almaty have played 6 matches in UEFA Conference League this season, scoring 0.8 and conceding 0.7 goals a game and winning 50% of them. Away from home they average 0.7 goals scored and 0.7 conceded over 3 matches, with a 33% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, Riga FC are narrow favourites at 47%, with the draw at 28% and Kairat Almaty at 25%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (12.1% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Riga FC -0.5 at 1.80, Kairat Almaty at 1.89. The main goals line is 2.5: over 1.92, under 1.75, which gives over 48%.
Riga FC: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 0.62 a match created (goals minus xG: +8.3).
- Shots: 19.5 a match, 8.2 on target.
- Possession: 57.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 33% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 67% of their matches.
- Corners: 7.7 a match.
- Discipline: 2.5 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.61.
Kairat Almaty: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 0.22 a match created (goals minus xG: +3.7).
- Shots: 14.0 a match, 5.2 on target.
- Possession: 55.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 33% of matches (50% away).
- Both teams scored in 17% of their matches.
- Corners: 7.0 a match.
- Discipline: 1.8 yellow cards a match.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.52.
Riga FC vs Kairat Almaty: season averages side by side
| Riga FC | Per match | Kairat Almaty |
|---|---|---|
| 0.62 | Expected goals (xG) | 0.22 |
| 2.00 | Goals | 0.83 |
| 19.5 | Shots | 14.0 |
| 8.2 | Shots on target | 5.2 |
| 0.3 | Big chances missed | 0.3 |
| 4.7 | Tackles | 3.2 |
| 14.8 | Fouls | 11.2 |
| 2.5 | Yellow cards | 1.8 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 6 and 6 measured matches.
Riga FC vs Kairat Almaty prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 1.7 goals - 1.02 for Riga FC and 0.66 for Kairat Almaty - with over 2.5 goals at 24% and both teams scoring at 31%. Riga FC have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Riga FC 1-0 Kairat Almaty
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Riga FC vs Kairat Almaty betting tips
- Tip 1: Riga FC win or draw (double chance) 75% between them
- Tip 2: Under 2.5 goals 76% by the model, 1.67 goals expected
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: no 69% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 5.3 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 14.7 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
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Riga FC vs Kairat Almaty: questions and answers
When is Riga FC vs Kairat Almaty?
Riga FC vs Kairat Almaty is on Thursday 15 October 2026, in UEFA Conference League Gameweek 1.
Where is Riga FC vs Kairat Almaty played?
At RTU stadions, Riga, Riga FC's home ground.
Who will win Riga FC vs Kairat Almaty?
Riga FC are the favourites: Riga FC 47%, draw 28%, Kairat Almaty 25%. Our prediction is Riga FC 1-0 Kairat Almaty.
How many goals will there be in Riga FC vs Kairat Almaty?
Moneyball's model expects about 1.7 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 24%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.