Sabah FK vs Borussia Dortmund Prediction and Betting Tips | UEFA Champions League Gameweek 3
UEFA Champions League · Tuesday 20 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-18
Sabah FK welcome Borussia Dortmund to Bank Respublika Arena in Masazyr in UEFA Champions League Gameweek 3 action on Tuesday 20 October 2026.
Sabah FK have played 10 matches in UEFA Champions League this season, scoring 2.0 and conceding 1.1 goals a game and winning 70% of them. At home they average 2.8 goals scored and 0.4 conceded over 5 matches, with a 71% win rate. Borussia Dortmund have played 6 matches in UEFA Champions League this season, scoring 1.8 and conceding 0.7 goals a game and winning 67% of them. Away from home they average 1.3 goals scored and 0.7 conceded over 3 matches, with a 50% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, Borussia Dortmund are clear favourites at 71%, with the draw at 17% and Sabah FK at 12%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (10.8% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Sabah FK +1.75 at 1.90, Borussia Dortmund at 2.00. The main goals line is 3.5: over 2.04, under 1.84, which gives over 47%.
Sabah FK: form and key numbers
- Expected goals: 1.03 a match created (goals minus xG: +9.7).
- Shots: 15.7 a match, 5.6 on target.
- Possession: 51.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 50% of matches (80% at home).
- Both teams scored in 40% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.5 a match.
- Discipline: 1.4 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.78.
Borussia Dortmund: form and key numbers
In style Borussia Dortmund keep the ball, press high, are strong in the air.
- Expected goals: 1.74 a match created, 0.92 conceded (goals minus xG: +0.6).
- Shots: 15.2 a match, 5.5 on target.
- Possession: 55.0% on average.
- Clean sheets: 67% of matches (50% away).
- Both teams scored in 33% of their matches.
- Corners: 4.8 a match.
- Discipline: 2.5 yellow cards a match, 1.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 7.00.
Sabah FK vs Borussia Dortmund: season averages side by side
| Sabah FK | Per match | Borussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| 1.03 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.74 |
| – | xG conceded | 0.92 |
| 2.00 | Goals | 1.83 |
| 15.7 | Shots | 15.2 |
| 5.6 | Shots on target | 5.5 |
| 1.4 | Big chances missed | 2.0 |
| – | Pressure share % | 59.3 |
| 11.6 | Tackles | 16.8 |
| 11.8 | Fouls | 11.2 |
| 1.4 | Yellow cards | 2.5 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 10 and 6 measured matches.
Players to watch
Borussia Dortmund
- Waldemar Anton CB · Stopper · Moneyball Score 77 · Reads the game, Box defender (top 1% of his position)
- Felix Nmecha CMF · Ball-winning midfielder · Moneyball Score 68 · Secure passer, Dribbler (top 10% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Serhou Guirassy
Serhou Guirassy, 30 · Borussia Dortmund · CF · Complete forward · Moneyball Score 61
Serhou Guirassy, 30, plays as a centre-forward for Borussia Dortmund in the Bundesliga. Strongest for his role in key passes and expected goals. Weakest in big chances missed. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average centre-forward, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 70
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 61
- LW · Winger Competent, 54
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Key passes | 2.07 / 90 | 95% |
| Expected goals | 0.56 / 90 | 73% |
| Shots | 3.28 / 90 | 69% |
| Shot quality (xG per shot) | 0.17 xG/shot | 69% |
| Shots on target | 47% | 66% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★★ Complete forward Centre-forward
- ★★★ Creative winger Winger
Scout's notes: Chance creator.
- What Serhou Guirassy is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Serhou Guirassy's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Sabah FK vs Borussia Dortmund prediction
Moneyball's model expects about 2.5 goals - 1.22 for Sabah FK and 1.27 for Borussia Dortmund - with over 2.5 goals at 45% and both teams scoring at 51%. Borussia Dortmund have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to take something from the trip.
Prediction: Sabah FK 0-1 Borussia Dortmund
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Sabah FK vs Borussia Dortmund betting tips
- Tip 1: Borussia Dortmund to win 71% on the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.49 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (45%)
- Tip 3: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 5.9 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Over 8.5 corners 10.3 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. This match is one of the free picks of its schedule.
Open Sabah FK vs Borussia Dortmund in the Match Centre Follow it live
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Sabah FK vs Borussia Dortmund: questions and answers
When is Sabah FK vs Borussia Dortmund?
Sabah FK vs Borussia Dortmund is on Tuesday 20 October 2026, in UEFA Champions League Gameweek 3.
Where is Sabah FK vs Borussia Dortmund played?
At Bank Respublika Arena, Masazyr, Sabah FK's home ground.
Who will win Sabah FK vs Borussia Dortmund?
Borussia Dortmund are the favourites: Sabah FK 12%, draw 17%, Borussia Dortmund 71%. Our prediction is Sabah FK 0-1 Borussia Dortmund.
Who is the player to watch in Sabah FK vs Borussia Dortmund?
Serhou Guirassy of Borussia Dortmund: a complete forward with a Moneyball Score of 61 against every centre-forward in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Sabah FK vs Borussia Dortmund?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.5 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 45%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.