Santos vs Palmeiras Prediction and Betting Tips
Brasileirao · Thursday 29 October 2026 · updated 2026-10-26
Santos welcome Palmeiras to Estádio Urbano Caldeira in Santos in Brasileirao action on Thursday 29 October 2026.
Santos have played 32 matches in Brasileirao this season, scoring 1.5 and conceding 1.5 goals a game and winning 38% of them. At home they average 1.4 goals scored and 1.3 conceded over 16 matches, with a 50% win rate. Palmeiras have played 32 matches in Brasileirao this season, scoring 1.8 and conceding 0.7 goals a game and winning 63% of them. Away from home they average 1.6 goals scored and 0.8 conceded over 16 matches, with a 40% win rate.
On the bookmakers' prices, with their margin taken out, there is little to separate them: Santos 31%, the draw 28%, Palmeiras 41%.
The odds
Decimal odds; the percentages are the chances the prices imply once the bookmaker's margin (12.2% on this market) is taken out. The main Asian handicap is Santos 0 at 2.13, Palmeiras at 1.60. The main goals line is 2.5: over 1.89, under 1.83, which gives over 49%.
Santos: form and key numbers
In style Santos press high.
- Expected goals: 1.34 a match created, 1.18 conceded (goals minus xG: +6.2).
- Shots: 13.7 a match, 4.2 on target.
- Possession: 49.9% on average.
- Clean sheets: 19% of matches (50% at home).
- Both teams scored in 75% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.6 a match.
- Discipline: 3.0 yellow cards a match, 5.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.81.
Palmeiras: form and key numbers
In style Palmeiras keep the ball, press high, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.44 a match created, 1.05 conceded (goals minus xG: +10.0).
- Shots: 15.5 a match, 5.2 on target.
- Possession: 52.2% on average.
- Clean sheets: 47% of matches (53% away).
- Both teams scored in 53% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.0 a match.
- Discipline: 2.3 yellow cards a match, 5.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.95.
Santos vs Palmeiras: season averages side by side
| Santos | Per match | Palmeiras |
|---|---|---|
| 1.34 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.44 |
| 1.18 | xG conceded | 1.05 |
| 1.53 | Goals | 1.75 |
| 13.7 | Shots | 15.5 |
| 4.2 | Shots on target | 5.2 |
| 1.2 | Big chances missed | 1.3 |
| 54.8 | Pressure share % | 65.5 |
| 19.0 | Tackles | 15.1 |
| 12.8 | Fouls | 13.0 |
| 3.0 | Yellow cards | 2.3 |
Season averages per match from Sportmonks, over 32 and 32 measured matches.
Santos vs Palmeiras: head-to-head stats and key numbers
- Santos have won 1, drawn 1 and lost 1 of the last 3 meetings in our data.
- Goals in those games: Santos 2, Palmeiras 3 - 1.7 a match.
- The most recent meeting finished Palmeiras 1-1 Santos (May 2nd 2026).
Head to head
In their last 3 meetings Santos won 1, drew 1 and lost 1.
| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2 May 2026 | Palmeiras | 1 – 1 | Santos |
| 16 Nov 2025 | Santos | 1 – 0 | Palmeiras |
| 7 Nov 2025 | Palmeiras | 2 – 0 | Santos |
Players to watch
Santos
- Benjamín Rollheiser RWF · Creative winger · Moneyball Score 71 · Chance creator, Creator (top 1% of his position)
- Rodinei RB · Attacking full-back · Moneyball Score 55 · Hard to dribble past, Dribbler (top 10% of his position)
Palmeiras
- Emiliano Martínez DMF · Anchor · Moneyball Score 58 · Reads the game, Duel winner (top 8% of his position)
- Vitor Roque CF · Pressing forward · Moneyball Score 55 · Duel winner, High shot volume (top 10% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Neymar
Neymar, 34 · Santos · AMF · Shadow striker · Moneyball Score 64
Neymar, 34, plays as an attacking midfielder for Santos in the Brasileirão. Strongest for his role in expected goals and fouls won. Weakest in through balls. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average attacking midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Natural, 64
- SS · Second striker Accomplished, 61
- ST · Centre-forward Natural, 59
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Expected goals | 0.56 / 90 | 100% |
| Fouls won | 4.49 / 90 | 100% |
| Shots | 3.76 / 90 | 95% |
| Key passes | 2.58 / 90 | 75% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.28 / 90 | 68% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★½ Shadow striker Second striker
- ★★★★ Link-up forward Second striker
- ★★★★ Dribbling playmaker Attacking midfielder
Scout's notes: Gets into scoring positions, Draws fouls, High shot volume.
- What Neymar is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Santos vs Palmeiras prediction
Palmeiras should have more of the ball; Santos press high to win the ball back; Palmeiras like to take players on. Moneyball's model expects about 2.5 goals - 1.07 for Santos and 1.40 for Palmeiras - with over 2.5 goals at 45% and both teams scoring at 50%. Little separates the sides on the numbers, and a draw is the single likeliest result.
Prediction: Santos 1-1 Palmeiras
The full model, every line of this match, in the Match Centre
Santos vs Palmeiras betting tips
- Tip 1: Draw or either side by one goal is the shape of it - avoid the result market no side above 41%
- Tip 2: Under 2.5 goals 55% by the model, 2.47 goals expected
- Tip 3: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 15.3 cards a match between them
- Tip 4: Over 9.5 corners 11.6 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
Moneyball's pick
The Dixon-Coles and xG model prices every line of this match: the win, draw and loss probabilities, fair odds and the expected value of each handicap and goals line. The full analysis of this match is part of Moneyball Premium.
More Brasileirao previews
- Coritiba vs Gremio Monday 26 October 2026
- Flamengo vs Atletico Mineiro Tuesday 27 October 2026
- Fluminense vs Internacional Thursday 29 October 2026
- RB Bragantino vs Chapecoense Thursday 29 October 2026
- Bahia vs Sao Paulo Thursday 29 October 2026
- Remo vs Botafogo Thursday 29 October 2026
Santos vs Palmeiras: questions and answers
When is Santos vs Palmeiras?
Santos vs Palmeiras is on Thursday 29 October 2026, in Brasileirao.
Where is Santos vs Palmeiras played?
At Estádio Urbano Caldeira, Santos, Santos's home ground.
Who will win Santos vs Palmeiras?
It is close: Santos 31%, draw 28%, Palmeiras 41%. Our prediction is Santos 1-1 Palmeiras.
Who is the player to watch in Santos vs Palmeiras?
Neymar of Santos: a shadow striker with a Moneyball Score of 64 against every attacking midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Santos vs Palmeiras?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.5 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 45%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.