Bahia vs São Paulo Prediction and Betting Tips | Brasileirão Gameweek 33
Brasileirão · Thursday 29 October 2026 · 00:30 UTC · Arena Fonte Nova, Salvador · updated 2026-10-25
Bahia welcome São Paulo to Arena Fonte Nova in Salvador in Brasileirão Gameweek 33 action on Thursday 29 October 2026, kick-off 00:30 UTC.
Bahia have played 32 matches in Brasileirão this season, scoring 1.4 and conceding 1.3 goals a game and winning 41% of them. At home they average 1.4 goals scored and 1.1 conceded over 16 matches, with a 54% win rate. São Paulo have played 32 matches in Brasileirão this season, scoring 1.2 and conceding 1.1 goals a game and winning 38% of them. Away from home they average 0.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded over 16 matches, with a 17% win rate.
On Moneyball's model, from this season's numbers, Bahia are narrow favourites at 44%, with the draw at 27% and São Paulo at 30%.
Moneyball's estimate
- Expected goals: Bahia 1.53, São Paulo 1.23.
- Over 2.5 goals: 52% · both teams to score: 56%.
- Most likely score: 2–1 (9%).
From each side's goals and expected goals this season (Sportmonks), pulled toward the league average while a side has played few matches (32 and 32 so far), through a Dixon-Coles score model. No bookmaker prices are in it; once the odds are out, the full model in the app reads them too.
Bahia: form and key numbers
In style Bahia keep the ball, cross a lot, take players on.
- Expected goals: 1.57 a match created, 1.47 conceded (goals minus xG: -5.2).
- Shots: 14.3 a match, 4.7 on target.
- Possession: 53.7% on average.
- Clean sheets: 28% of matches (56% at home).
- Both teams scored in 63% of their matches.
- Corners: 5.6 a match.
- Discipline: 2.3 yellow cards a match, 2.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.86.
São Paulo: form and key numbers
In style São Paulo keep the ball, press high, cross a lot.
- Expected goals: 1.48 a match created, 1.36 conceded (goals minus xG: -10.3).
- Shots: 13.5 a match, 4.1 on target.
- Possession: 53.3% on average.
- Clean sheets: 22% of matches (14% away).
- Both teams scored in 56% of their matches.
- Corners: 6.8 a match.
- Discipline: 2.2 yellow cards a match, 3.0 reds.
- Average Sportmonks player rating: 6.83.
Bahia vs São Paulo: season averages side by side
| Bahia | Per match this season | São Paulo |
|---|---|---|
| 32 | Matches | 32 |
| 1.4 | Goals scored | 1.2 |
| 1.3 | Goals conceded | 1.1 |
| 1.57 | Expected goals (xG) | 1.48 |
| 1.47 | xG conceded | 1.36 |
| 14.3 | Shots | 13.5 |
| 4.7 | On target | 4.1 |
| 53.7 | Possession % | 53.3 |
| 28% | Clean sheets % | 22% |
| 63% | Both teams scored % | 56% |
| 5.6 | Corners | 6.8 |
| 2.3 | Yellow cards | 2.2 |
| 6.86 | Average rating | 6.83 |
Players to watch
Bahia
- Ronaldo GK · Shot-stopper · Moneyball Score 69 · Box defender, Secure passer (top 9% of his position)
- Mateo Sanabria LWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 60 · Draws fouls, Dribbler (top 13% of his position)
São Paulo
- Ferreirinha LWF · Inside forward · Moneyball Score 65 · Dribbler, Draws fouls (top 4% of his position)
- Gustavo Santana CF · Poacher · Moneyball Score 58 · High shot volume, Gets into scoring positions (top 18% of his position)
Scouting spotlight: Marcos Antônio
Marcos Antônio, 26 · São Paulo · CMF · Playmaker · Moneyball Score 62
Marcos Antônio, 26, plays as a central midfielder for São Paulo in the Brasileirão. Strongest for his role in pass accuracy and passes. Weakest in interceptions. Moneyball Scout, the engine behind our Scouting Players Research, rates him against every central midfielder in Europe's top five leagues - and this is what he does better than almost all of them.
Percentile against his position on each figure: 50 is the average central midfielder, 90 the top tenth.
Positions he can play
- CM · Central midfielder Natural, 62
- DM · Defensive midfielder Natural, 53
- CAM · Attacking midfielder Accomplished, 46
Where he is strongest
| Figure | His number | Better than |
|---|---|---|
| Pass accuracy | 90% | 94% |
| Passes | 65.12 / 90 | 84% |
| Expected assists (est.) | 0.21 / 90 | 84% |
| Long balls | 3.01 / 90 | 83% |
| Key passes | 1.72 / 90 | 78% |
Roles he suits
- ★★★★ Playmaker Central midfielder
- ★★★★ Deep-lying playmaker Defensive midfielder
- ★★ Box-to-box midfielder Central midfielder
Scout's notes: Secure passer, Ball circulator, Creator.
- What Marcos Antônio is worth on the market, and the most a club should pay
- How many league points he would add to your club (Win-Rate Impact)
- The players who play like him, cheaper - the Replacement Finder
- His chemistry with your squad, his fit with your style, his projection by age
Open Marcos Antônio's full file Moneyball Scout from $39 a month
Bahia vs São Paulo prediction
Bahia should have more of the ball; both work the ball wide and cross. Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals - 1.53 for Bahia and 1.23 for São Paulo - with over 2.5 goals at 52% and both teams scoring at 56%. Bahia have the stronger numbers, and we expect them to make home advantage count.
Prediction: Bahia 2-1 São Paulo
Bahia vs São Paulo betting tips
- Tip 1: Bahia win or draw (double chance) 70% between them
- Tip 2: Over 1.5 goals 2.75 goals expected; 2.5 is close to a coin toss (52%)
- Tip 3: Both teams to score: yes 56% by the model
- Tip 4: Over 3.5 cards the two sides average 9.5 cards a match between them
- Tip 5: Over 9.5 corners 12.3 corners a match between them
Statistical leanings from the data, not certainties. 18+ only, where betting is legal; never stake more than you can afford to lose.
The full analysis
Moneyball Odds prices every line of the match once bookmakers do: win, draw and loss, Asian handicaps and goals lines, with fair odds and the expected value of each.
More Brasileirão previews
- Coritiba vs Grêmio Monday 26 October 2026
- Flamengo vs Atlético Mineiro Monday 26 October 2026
- Bragantino vs Chapecoense Wednesday 28 October 2026
- Santos vs Palmeiras Wednesday 28 October 2026
- Fluminense vs Internacional Wednesday 28 October 2026
- Remo vs Botafogo Thursday 29 October 2026
- Atlético Mineiro vs Cruzeiro Thursday 29 October 2026
- Vasco da Gama vs Flamengo Thursday 29 October 2026
Bahia vs São Paulo: questions and answers
When is Bahia vs São Paulo?
Bahia vs São Paulo is on Thursday 29 October 2026, kick-off 00:30 UTC, in Brasileirão Gameweek 33.
Where is Bahia vs São Paulo played?
At Arena Fonte Nova, Salvador, Bahia's home ground.
Who will win Bahia vs São Paulo?
Bahia are the favourites: Bahia 44%, draw 27%, São Paulo 30%. Our prediction is Bahia 2-1 São Paulo.
Who is the player to watch in Bahia vs São Paulo?
Marcos Antônio of São Paulo: a playmaker with a Moneyball Score of 62 against every central midfielder in Europe's top five leagues.
How many goals will there be in Bahia vs São Paulo?
Moneyball's model expects about 2.8 goals, with over 2.5 goals at 52%.
Tags
Moneyball Odds is a statistical analysis site, not a bookmaker. No model predicts football reliably. For readers aged 18 and over, where betting is legal.